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YouTube Video link of public lecture sponsored by the Academy of International Business & University of Nottingham (China, Ningbo Campus) 

https://youtu.be/XnktxPtqwl4  

"China's Ascendancy and the Strained Relationship Between the US and China: Calculating the Value of Continued Future Cooperation" 

Talk for approximately 60 minutes followed by questions and answers for 30 minutes. 

Just two countries, China and the US comprise 40% of world GDP and 23% of its population, making their bilateral commercial relationship by far the most important in the world, and the strain between them especially unfortunate. Differing perspectives about intellectual property, the role of government, and technology transfer should not obscure the fact that both nations have benefited substantially from their trade and FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) flows. Unfortunately, psychosomatic defensiveness in the US and a more muscular tone in China, still smarting from grievances that date back 178 years, have dominated their political dialogue. But the basic underpinnings of cooperation and mutual benefit remain valid.  

Measuring the two countries’ interdependence 

Much of my talk is focused on estimates of the two nations’ mutual dependence, in terms of the numbers of jobs and money flows involved in the US-China relationship. But I will also address related issues such as the competitiveness of manufacturing, the value of the RMB (Yuan), and the dangers of overplaying the nationalism and protectionism cards. 

• What’s At Stake in the Unnecessary China-US spat? 
• How Many Jobs in China and in the US Depend on Trade With Each Other? (Some estimates) 
• How Many Jobs in China and in the US Depend on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)  in each Other? (Some estimates) 
• How Dependent is the US Consumer on Chinese Products? 
• Can We Bring Jobs Back to the US? Realistically, How Much Reshoring Can Happen? 
• Is US Manufacturing in Decline? Think Again. 
• Role of Global Manufacturing 
• Is the RMB (Yuan) Undervalued? 
• Dollar Surplus Recycling By China into US Treasury Bonds and Other US Assets 
• Cybersecurity Concerns 
• Dumping? What is Going On? 
• Conclusions 

• Can the US and China Compete and Also Cooperate? 
• Mutual Benefits and What’s at Risk With More Decoupling 
• The Dangers of Overdoing Paranoia and Nationalism?