Dear Colleagues,

I wish to share with you the latest UNCTAD assessment on the potential impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on foreign direct investment (FDI) and global value-chains (GVCs), in our special issue of the Global Investment Trends Monitor.

The impact scenarios for the pandemic are evolving day-by-day in response to the rapid spread of the virus. We now project the downward pressure on global FDI to be in the range of -30% to -40% leading up to 2021.

The top 5,000 multinationals, which account for a significant share of global FDI, now forecast downward revisions of their 2020 earnings estimates of -30% on average, with peaks of -200% in the most affected industries, and this trend is likely to deteriorate further.

The pandemic coupled with the necessary mitigation measures and lockdowns is affecting all components of FDI. Capital expenditures, greenfield investments and expansions are all on hold due to the physical closure of sites and production slowdowns. New M&A announcements are on course to drop by -70% globally in Q1.

Initially, a time-limited global supply chain shock from Covid-19 appeared to be the main factor affecting FDI prospects. This has now been overtaken by the expectation of a global recession, which could extend the shock on GVCs and prolong the vulnerabilities of local suppliers and small businesses worldwide.

An in-depth analysis of FDI trends will feature in the forthcoming World Investment Report 2020, published in June.

Best regards,


James X. Zhan

Director, Investment and Enterprise

Lead, World Investment Report
United Nations Conference on Trade & Development
Palais des Nations, Geneva


AIB-L is brought to you by the Academy of International Business.
For information:
To post message: [log in to unmask]
For assistance: [log in to unmask]
AIB-L is a moderated list.