to share with you
the latest UNCTAD assessment
on the potential impact of the Coronavirus
foreign direct investment (FDI)
and global value-chains (GVCs), in our special
the Global Investment Trends Monitor.
The impact scenarios for the pandemic are evolving day-by-day
in response to the rapid spread of the virus. We now project the
downward pressure on global
to be in the range of
-30% to -40%
leading up to
which account for a significant share of global FDI, now forecast
downward revisions of
2020 earnings estimates of
with peaks of -200% in the most affected industries,
trend is likely to deteriorate further.
coupled with the
mitigation measures and lockdowns
affecting all components of FDI. Capital
expenditures, greenfield investments and expansions are all on hold due to the
physical closure of sites and production slowdowns.
M&A announcements are on course to drop by -70%
globally in Q1.
Initially, a time-limited
global supply chain shock
appeared to be the main
been overtaken by
the expectation of a global
which could extend the
and prolong the vulnerabilities of local suppliers and small businesses worldwide.
An in-depth analysis of FDI trends will feature in the forthcoming World Investment Report 2020,
published in June.
James X. Zhan
Director, Investment and Enterprise
Lead, World Investment Report
United Nations Conference on Trade & Development
Palais des Nations, Geneva