It is my pleasure to share with you the latest issue of UNCTAD's
Global Investment Trend Monitor.
The key message: Global Foreign Direct Investment slipped further 2017.
latest issue of the Global Investment Trends Monitor and the UNCTAD Investment
Policy Monitor, please click
here. An in-depth analysis of FDI
trends will feature in the forthcoming World Investment Report 2018, to
be published in June 2018.
- Global foreign direct investment (FDI) fell
by 16% in 2017, to an estimated US$1.52 trillion, from a revised US$1.81
trillion in 2016 – a stark contrast to other macroeconomic variables,
such as GDP and trade growth, which saw substantial improvements in 2017.
- A slump in FDI flows to developed countries
(-27%) was the principal factor behind the global decline. A strong decrease
in flows was reported in Europe (-27%) as well as in North America (-33%),
mainly due to a return to prior levels of inflows in the United Kingdom
and the United States after spikes in 2016. This decline was tempered by
an 11% growth in flows to other developed economies, principally Australia.
- FDI to developing economies remained stable,
at an estimated US$653 billion, 2% more than the previous year. Flows rose
marginally in developing Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, and
remained flat in Africa. Developing Asia regained its position as the largest
FDI recipient region in the world, followed by the European Union and North
- FDI to the transition economies declined
by 17% to an estimated US$55 billion, mainly due to a drop in the Russian
Federation and lacklustre inflows across most of the Commonwealth of Independent
- After three years of growth, cross-border
merger and acquisitions (M&As) declined in 2017. Their growth already
slowed in 2016; in 2017, they contracted by 23%, to US$666 billion. However,
this still represented the third highest level since 2007.
- Preliminary data on the value of announced
greenfield FDI projects show a decline of 32% to US$571 billion (-17% in
number of projects), their lowest level since 2003. If confirmed, the drop
in greenfield project announcements would be a negative indicator for the
longer term. Of particular concern is the near halving of the value of
project announcements in developing economies, although the fall in project
numbers was limited to 23%.
- Higher economic growth projections, trade
volumes and commodity prices would normally point to a potential increase
in global FDI in 2018. However, elevated geopolitical risks and policy
uncertainty could have an impact on the scale and contours of any FDI recovery
in 2018. In addition, tax reforms in the United States are likely to significantly
affect investment decisions by United States MNEs, with consequences for
global investment patterns.
Director, Investment and Enterprise
Lead, World Investment Report
Palais des Nations, Geneva
Tel: +41 22 917 5797
AIB-L is brought to you by the Academy of International Business.
For information: http://aib.msu.edu/community/aib-l.asp
To post message: [log in to unmask]
For assistance: [log in to unmask]
AIB-L is a moderated list.