Dear Colleagues,
It is my pleasure to share with you UNCTAD’s Global
Investment Prospects Assessment 2016–2018.
- Global foreign direct investment (FDI)
flows are expected to decline by 10–15 per cent in 2016, reflecting the
fragility of the global economy and the persistent weakness of aggregate
demand, sluggish growth in some commodity exporting countries and a slump
in multinational enterprises (MNE) profits in 2015. Over the medium term,
global FDI flows are projected to resume growth in 2017 and to surpass
$1.8 trillion in 2018, but they will remain lower than the pre-crisis peak.
- FDI prospects remain muted in most regions,
although there are some bright spots. FDI inflows to Africa are likely
to return to a growth path as a result of liberalization measures and planned
privatizations. Flows to developing Asia are expected to decline in 2016
by about 15 per cent, returning to 2014 levels. Latin America and the Caribbean
may see their FDI slow down further in 2016 as challenging macroeconomic
conditions persist. After the significant decline recorded in 2015, FDI
flows to transition economies are expected to increase modestly in 2016.
The recovery of FDI activity in developed economies recorded in 2015 is
unlikely to be sustained in 2016.
- Diverging trends in FDI prospects of
some megagroupings. UNCTAD forecasts that FDI flows to G20 members could
decline by 5 to 10 per cent in 2016, falling to $830–880 billion. FDI
flows to APEC members are expected to fall by 15 to 20 per cent to $760–810
billion, reverting to normal patterns after unusually high expansion in
a number of economies in 2015. Flows to BRICS countries could return to
growth, increasing by an average of 10 per cent to $270–290 billion.
- Overall, expectations about short term
FDI flows are best described as mildly pessimistic with flows declining
in both developing and developed economies.
An in-depth analysis of global, regional and country level FDI trends,
is available in the
World Investment Report 2016.
Best regards,
James X. Zhan
Director, Investment & Enterprise
Team Leader, World Investment Report
United Nations Conference on Trade & Development
Palais des Nations, Geneva
www.unctad.org/diae
www.unctad.org/wir
(World Investment Reports)