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REPORT NO. 132, VOLUME 48-- MONDAY, JULY 13 2009

JUNE REVENUES TAKE SHARP FALL; REVENUES OFF TARGETS BY $120M

With state revenues from June's tax collections down by 16.2 percent
from the same time in 2008, state revenues are now $120 million below
revised monthly targets, figures released by the Senate Fiscal Agency
showed.

The numbers were released as legislators are returning to session,
following a two-week break, with the focus on resolving the budget for
the 2009-10 fiscal year that starts on October 1.

June's revenues marked the sixth month in the last eight that revenues
collections were below the previous year's by 10 percent or more, the
SFA said.

June's revenues totaled $1.6 billion.   In June 2008 the state collected
$1.94 billion, up more than 20 percent from June 2007 (though the state
was still adjusting to the increase in the income tax rate adopted the
previous October as well as the surcharge adopted to the Michigan
Business Tax).

For the fiscal year thus far, the state has collected $11.58 billion,
down 13.4 percent from the $13.4 billion the state had collected by the
end of June 2008.

Equally troubling, revenues are running below forecasts that were
adjusted downward in May as part of that month's revenue estimating
conference.   So far, actual collections are down by some $120 million,
the SFA said, with that amount "spread fairly evenly between the general
fund and School Aid Fund."

Among the few bright spots in the revenue picture was sales tax
collected on motor vehicle sales, which was up 30.2 percent from a year
ago, netting $83.7 million. For the year, the tax is up by 12.9 percent,
netting a total of $520.9 million.

June was the seventh consecutive month taxes from vehicle sales were up
in Michigan and the SFA acknowledged the reason why is a bit of a
mystery.   Vehicle sales nationally have been poor, but the SFA
speculated part of the reason for the increase may be that more cars
must be purchased than leased and that many auto workers who have early
buyouts from the manufacturers are using their new vehicle vouchers.

The sales tax overall collected $580.6 million in June, down 8.3 percent
from the year before.   Thus far in the fiscal year it has collected
slightly more than $4 billion, down 9.4 percent from the year before.
Without the vehicle sales included, the tax raised $496.9 million, down
12.7 percent from the year before.

The income tax raised $612.6 million during the month, down 20.5 percent
from the year before.   The gross tax totaled $685.6 million, down 15.9
percent from the year before, but refunds were up by 62.6 percent to $73
million.

For the year the net income tax collection is $3.7 billion, down 21.3
percent  Gross collections total $5.69 billion, down 10.7 percent from
the year before, but refunds have totaled $1.97 billion, up 19.8
percent.

The MBT collected $189.1 million during the month, 10.2 percent higher
than the year before.   For the year it has collected $1.69 billion.
There is no comparison to this point a year ago since the tax did not
start until January 2008.

The use tax collected $106.2 million during the month, down 13.7 percent
from the year before.   For the year thus far the tax has collected $708
million, down 21.7 percent from the year before.

The tobacco tax raised $86.1 million, down 7.3 percent from June 2008,
and for the year has raised $668.4 million, down .8 percent

The state education property tax was down by 24.7 percent, raising $44.4
million, and for the year the tax is down by 27.1 percent, raising
$412.2 million.

The real estate transfer tax dropped 37 percent in collections compared
to June 2008, raising just $8.5 million.   For the year the tax is down
by 40.2 percent, raising just $69.2 million.

The oil and gas severance tax fell by 67.7 percent during the month,
raising just $3.2 million.   For the year, the tax is down by 45.5
percent, raising $33.8 million.

The only other tax that saw an increase during the month was the state's
insurance tax, which increased by 33.3 percent and raised $2.4 million.
So far the tax is 3.9 percent for the year, raising $140.1 million.