BALLOT PROPOSALS COULD PUSH RECORD 2006 TURNOUT
A potential plethora of ballot proposals in 2006 could help draw a record turnout for a nonpresidential year, a poll released Friday suggests. The voter interest in the diverse issues is widespread and at this stage would not seem to favor either Republicans or Democrats, Ed Sarpolus, vice president of EPIC/MRA, said.
Fueled by possible proposals for a minimum wage increase, an anti-affirmative action amendment, guaranteed school funding and legalizing medical marijuana, "the interest is the highest I've ever seen," Mr. Sarpolus said. Also tested were proposals on dove hunting and an expanded bottle deposit law.
The survey of 1,000 persons who voted in the presidential election or are new voters found 80 percent said they are committed to voting next year. Mr. Sarpolus said that could translate into a turnout of 3.6 million, about 400,000 more than the current record turnout of 3.2 million set in 2002.
"If you get two or three of these on, you're going to get all of your votes out," he said. He added that means Governor Jennifer Granholm should encourage contributions to her campaign rather than ballot issues in going up against favored GOP contender Dick DeVos.
He said the anti-affirmative action proposal (which will be reviewed for ballot status on Tuesday by the Board of State Canvassers) will bring out voters from both sides, while the minimum wage and another possible plan to guarantee school funding will have equal amounts of money on both sides to bring voters out.
"There is no silver bullet for one side or a guarantee that one side will definitely vote," he said.
Republicans are most motivated to vote by the marijuana and bottle deposit proposals, with 84 percent of the sample saying the presence of those issues on the ballot would make it certain they would vote.
For Democrats, the motivation encompasses four issues of which 85 percent said they would make certain they get to the polls: minimum wage, school funding, medical marijuana or legalizing marijuana.
Mr. Sarpolus said African American voters are more motivated by the proposals than are whites, with 93 percent saying they would be certain to vote if minimum wage or school funding were on the ballot.
The proposal with the best chance of passing, should it get on the ballot, is the minimum wage issue (boosting the wage to $7.15 from $5.15 over two years), with the poll showing an 72-22 margin of support for it. The AFL-CIO has said a ballot drive is in the organizing phase after proponents failed to get a vote on bills in the Legislature.
The most evenly-divided support is on the proposal to ban hunting of mourning doves (a state law allows it on an experimental basis in some counties), with 40 percent favoring the ban and 42 percent opposing it. That proposal has already qualified for the 2006 ballot, suspending the law for at least two of the three pilot hunting seasons.
The anti-affirmative action proposal, which would add a constitutional amendment barring governmental units and colleges from using race- or gender-based affirmative action plans in employment or admissions policies, has 53 percent support in the sample, which has an error margin of plus/minus 3 percent, with 31 percent opposing it.
The school funding proposal is an issue still being developed but voters were asked about a plan to guarantee increases of up to 5 percent a year or inflation, was supported by a 55-33 margin.
Legalizing the use of marijuana for medical purposes was favored by a 61-32 margin, but legalizing its use in general was opposed by a 20-74 edge.
A proposal to expand the bottle deposit law to juice and water containers was supported by a 74-20 margin.
Also already assured a spot on the ballot, due to approval by the Legislature, is a proposal to bar the use of monies deposited into conservation and recreation funds to help bail out the state in fiscal emergencies.
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