Content-Type: text/html This paper was presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication in San Antonio, Texas August 2005. If you have questions about this paper, please contact the author directly. If you have questions about the archives, email rakyat [ at ] eparker.org. For an explanation of the subject line, send email to [log in to unmask] with just the four words, "get help info aejmc," in the body (drop the ""). (Feb 2006) Thank you. Elliott Parker ==================================================================== Political Advertising and the Third Person Effect: Investigating the Behavioral Consequences of Negative Political Ads By Stephen Banning, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Louisiana State University Guy Golan, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Louisiana State University Lisa Lundy, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Louisiana State University Please send all correspondence to: Stephen A. Banning, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Manship School of Mass Communication Louisiana State University Home and Summer Address: 522 Wylie Drive Baton Rouge, LA 70808 Work Phone: 225-578-2098 Home Phone: 225-757-1808 Email: [log in to unmask] Political Advertising and the Third Person Effect: Investigating the Behavioral Consequences of Negative Political Ads Abstract Political advertising has emerged as a key component of the modern presidential campaign. The current study examines the perceived influence of negative and biographical political advertisements on potential voters. A judgment task experiment of 340 individuals who were shown four ads from the 2004 Bush/Kerry campaigns provided some evidence as to the perceived effects of television presidential ads. As predicted by third-person effect research, individuals tend to overestimate the effect that negative political ads have on other people while underestimating these effect on self when exposed to biographical or candidate positioning advertisements. Moving beyond the perceptual component of the third person effect, the study offers one of the first examinations of the behavioral consequences of TPE. The study found a significant relationship between perceived effects of negative advertising and likelihood to go out and vote. Political Advertising and the Third Person Effect: Investigating the Behavioral Consequences of Negative Political Ads Mass communication scholars have long been interested in the potential effects of political advertising on public opinion (Cwalina, Falkowski & Kaid, 2000) and the overall political process (McKinnon & Kaid, 1999). While the modern political campaign has grown in cost (Sorauf, 1988), voter turnouts have shown a declining pattern over the past decades (Rosenstone & Hansen, 1993). There has been some evidence that political campaigns have become predominantly negative as attack ads have become more pronounced (Jamieson, 2001; West, 1997). Some Scholars have suggested that negative political advertising may be responsible for the reductions in voter participation (Ansolabehere & Iyengar, 1995). However, such a relationship has been contradicted by other scholars (Clinton & Lapinski, 2004). The 2004 United States' presidential campaign has been marked by wide scale negative campaigning. Political advertisements by third party groups largely referred to as 527's launched personal attacks on both candidates by raising questions about their pasts and their integrity. Thus, this election served as a good case study for the examination of negative political advertising and its potential impact on voter participation. As noted by scholars, political advertising has been found to shape not only the media news agenda (Boyle, 2001) but also public opinion of issues saliency (Roberts & McCombs, 1994) and candidate attributes (McCombs, Llamas, Escobar-Lopez, & Rey, 1997). The current study attempts to contribute to knowledge of political advertising by incorporating third-person effect scholarship into the political advertising research and by presenting one of the first examinations of the behavioral consequences of third person perceptions on voting intentions. Literature Review Negative political advertising Negative political advertising seeks to degrade public perceptions of a political opponent (Merritt, 1984). The political opponent is identified and references are made to the candidate's general image or stance on campaign issues. Roddy and Garramone (1988) found that negative political advertisements that focused on issues received a more positive evaluation than did negative ads that focused on a candidate's image. In their experiment, viewers of negative commercials focusing on issues showed a significantly lesser likelihood of voting for the candidate attacked in the ads than did viewers of a commercial focusing on the candidate's image. While negative political advertising may produce negative attitudes toward the candidate under attack, negative attitudes may also develop toward the sponsor of the advertisement (Garramone, 1985; Merritt, 1984), depending on audience predispositions toward the candidates or their respective political parties. Garramone and Atkin (1990) investigated the impact of negative political advertising on candidate image discrimination, candidate attitude polarization, involvement in the election, communication behavior regarding the election, and likelihood of turning out to vote in the election. While the negative advertisements significantly affected candidate image discrimination and attitude polarization, no significant effects were found for involvement in the election, communication behavior regarding the election, or likelihood of turning out to vote (Garramone & Atkin, 1990). In comparative political advertising, candidates are discussed and often compared directly with regard to their positions on key issues, experience, or voting records (Pinkleton, 1997). The purpose of comparative advertising, in general, is to position the sponsoring candidate as superior to the targeted candidate (Merritt, 1984). Pinkleton (1997) studied negative comparative advertising and discovered that, in contrast to negative "attack" advertising, comparative advertising negatively influenced audience attitudes toward the targeted candidate without negatively influencing audience attitudes of the sponsoring candidate. Ansolabehere et al. (1994) investigated the impact of negative political advertising on voter turnout. Based on their experimental study, they supposed that as many as five percent of voters could abandon their intention to vote as a result of negative political advertising. However, Wattenberg and Brians (1999) used respondent recall to measure exposure to political advertising. They questioned the conjecture of Ansolabehere et al. (1994), explaining that an immediate response to exposure to negative political advertising may not translate into a decision not to vote on the election date. According to Goldstein and Freedman (2002), negative political advertising may actually stimulate, rather than depress, voter turnout. Kahn and Kenney (1999) argue that the influence of negative political advertising on voter turnout is not uniform, but dependent on the individual message and the perceived appropriateness of the critical commentary. They also point to the influence of political predisposition and personal involvement with political issues. Third-person effect As a central theory in media effects research, the third-person effect has been widely investigated by mass communication researchers in their attempt to understand perceived media effects on self and others and how these effects may lead to real life consequences. More than twenty years following the original third person study by Davison (1983) over 45 published articles and dozens of peer reviewed conference papers investigated the third-person effect phenomenon (Perloff, 1999). As noted by Gunther (2003), the third-person effect is made up of the perceptual and behavioral components. The perceptual component (TPP) of the third-person effect predicts that people tend to underestimate media effects on themselves while overestimating media effects on others (Perloff, 1993). The behavioral component examines the potential consequences of the third-person effect (Perloff, 1999). As noted by Gunther and Storey (2003), the perceptual hypothesis has been widely supported by dozens of studies. These include studies on the third-person effect and a wide array of topics such as misogynic rap lyrics (Eveland, Nathanson, Detenber, & McLeod, 1999), sensational courtroom trials (Driscoll & Salwen, 1997), pornography residential mobility (Tsfati & Cohen, 2003), Holocaust denial advertising ((Price, Tewksbury & Huang, 1998) and even third-person effect and Y2K millennium pseudo crisis (Tewksbury, Moy & Weis, 2004). The tendency of individuals to overestimate media effects on others while underestimating effects on self as predicted by the perceptual component has traditionally been explained by biased optimism or by causal attribution (Rucinski & Salmon, 1990). Biased optimism assumes that people evaluate themselves more favorably than they do others and therefore perceive themselves as less susceptible to negative events (Weinstein & Klein, 1996). Causal attribution posits that people will interpret media effects on self in terms of situational factors while interpreting effects on others based on dispositional explanations (Shah, Faber, & Youn, 1999). TPE and advertising Both causal attribution and biased optimism can be useful in explaining the TPP when the media stimulus is negative such as the case with pornography (Chia, Lu, & McLeod, 2004), misogynic rap lyrics (McLeod, Eveland, & Nathanson, 1997) and media violence ((Rojas, Shah, & Faber, 1996). However, not all media stimuli are negative. Researchers have found only mixed evidence of TPP when dealing with "socially desirable" stimuli such as public service announcement. Gunther and Thorson (1992) were first to suggest that the positive or negative nature of the message influences the third-person effect. Comparing perceived media effects of public service announcements and brand advertising, they identified a reversed third-person effect (sometimes referred to as the first-person effect) in which people tend to overestimate media effects on self while underestimating media effects on others. Research on third-person effect and advertising found mixed TPP depending largely on the nature of the advertising messages. For example, Ognianova, Meeds, Thorson, and Coyle (1996) looked at political ad reviews (also known as ad watches) and TPE. They identified a greater third-person effect for negative political ad reviews than for the positive ad reviews. Similarly, Duck & Mullin (1995) found that experiment participants identified TPP when exposed to negative stimuli while perceiving first person perceptions when exposed to positive stimuli such as public service announcements. Duck, Terry and Hogg (1995) found that survey respondents perceived themselves to be more influenced by high quality AIDS advertisements than others. They argued that ego-enhancement was the driving mechanism for such a reversed third-person effect. Innes and Zeitz (1998) also identified that the valance of content as positive or negative can lead to reduced levels of TPP. Respondents in their study identified greater TPP when exposed to media violence than they did for political advertising or public service campaigns. Gunther and Mundy (1993) compared "harmful" and "beneficial" advertisements and found that while individuals perceived others to be more influenced by "harmful" ads than they were, they did not evaluate others differently than themselves when it came to "beneficial" ads. Finally, Banning (2001) found that negative stigma of advertising leads to greater levels of a third-person effect. The current study aims to broaden understanding of the third-person effect by examining the third-person effect of negative and positive political advertising on both the perceptual and behavioral components. Based on the rich third-person effect literature we will predict the following regarding advertising valance and third person perceptions: H1: Respondents will perceive others to be more influenced than they were when exposed to political attack advertisements (third-person effect). H2: Respondents will perceive themselves to be more influenced than others when exposed to candidate positioning advertisements (first-person effect). Behavioral consequences of TPE While the perceptual component of the third-person effect has been widely supported by research (Perloff, 1999), researchers have agreed that the behavioral component has not. (Gunther & Storey, 2003; Perloff, 1999). While the former examines perceived media effects, the latter focuses on the real life consequences of these perceived effects. Until now, behavioral research on TPE has focused largely on the real life consequences of the perceived effects of negative media. For example, Shah, Faber and Youn (1999) found a significant relationship between third-person perceptions of advertising of controversial products and willingness to censor advertising. Salwen and Dupagne (1999) found third-person perceptions of general media effects was a key predictor of support for restrictions on negative political advertising. Hoffner et al. (1999) identified a positive relationship between TPP of the effect of television violence and likelihood to support censorship. Indeed, several other studies were successful in establishing a relationship between TPP and real life consequences on a variety of topics including pornography (Lee & Yang, 1996), news coverage (Tewksbury, Moy, & Weis, 2004), television violence (Rojas et al., 1996), television viewing (Peiser & Peter, 2000) and misogynic rap lyrics (McLeod, Eveland, & Nathanson, 1997). Missing from the literature on the behavioral consequences of the third-person effect is knowledge on the real life consequences of the first-person effect. As evident by previous studies (Such as Gunther & Mundy, 1993), TPP largely depend on the nature of the media stimuli. Researchers have consistently examined how negative stimuli such as pornography led to real life consequences but failed to take into account the real life consequences of more socially desirable stimuli such as public service announcements or positive message advertising. Even before researchers looked into behavioral effects of the TTP, one early study (Griswold, 1992) found Georgia voters who felt others were more affected by economic messages were less likely to vote. However, no separation between valences of the messages was made. The current study will attempt to contribute to knowledge of the behavioral component by providing one of the first empirical tests of the real life consequences of TPP regarding political advertisements. As previously discussed in the literature review, scholars found evidence suggesting that negative advertising may lead to reduced voter turnout (Ansolabehere et al., 1994). Based on the behavioral component research that found TPP to lead to real life consequences, we hypothesize that TPP of positive and negative political advertising will lead to real life consequences in terms of willingness to vote: H3: Third person perceptions are negatively associated with participants' likelihood to vote. Methods This judgment-task experiment was conducted with sophomore-to-senior level students in a medium sized state university. Judgment task experiments are considered to be between surveys and laboratory experiments, but focus on generalizability of stimuli rather than generalizability over respondents (Runkel & McGrath, 1972). Because of this, probability sampling is not required (Rosenthal, 1987). While there is some concern on using student subjects, a recent study found 41% of the empirical articles in mass communication journals used student subjects/respondents and 57% to 87% of studies in psychology journals used student samples (Lowry & Sundararaman, 2003). Furthermore, examining the relationship between the third-person effect and perceived voting intention in college is of particular importance based on their emergence as a key constituency in modern presidential elections (Kantrowitz, 2004; Hoover, 2003). The subjects were not offered an inducement and all in the sampling pool but one agreed to participate. Instruments were distributed and participants were shown four thirty-second television commercials for Presidential candidates George Bush and John Kerry. Subjects then responded to questions about each ad. Each administration took less than fifteen minutes. The four thirty-second ads were drawn from the official Bush/Kerry websites (Appendices A-D). Description of Questions The study utilized a 48-item instrument including demographics to describe respondents' age, gender, major, ethnic background and political affiliation. After watching each of the four political ads, respondents were asked to measure the influence of the ad on their perceptions and the perceptions of others as well as on their likelihood to vote. The "self" questions that followed the showing of each ad were as follows: 1) How much do you think this ad will influence your perception of George W. Bush? 2) How much do you think this ad will influence your perception of John Kerry? The scores on both these questions on all four advertisements were summed together to produce one omnibus "self" perception score. The measure of the participants' perception of the ads' influence on others was measured with the following questions: 1) How much do you think this ad will influence the perception of George W. Bush by others in the United States who have seen this ad? 2) How much do you think this ad will influence the perception of John Kerry by others in the United States who have seen this ad? The scores on both these questions for all four advertisements were summed together to produce one omnibus "others" perception score. The questions were seven-point, equal -interval scales with bipolar opposites, bounded by the adjectives "no influence" and "great influence." Indicators of perceptions, likelihood to vote and influence on candidate choice, were combined respectively for each of the four ads. The basic definition for the perceptual "third-person effect" is the phenomenon created by a person believing the media has a greater effect on others than the media do on him or her self (Davison, 1983). In the context of this study, the third-person effect would be defined as an individual believing that political advertising messages had a greater effect on others than they had on him or her self. The operational method of defining the third-person effect in this study is the same method used in many other third-person effect studies and is not unique to this research. In this study, a measure of the third-person effect is created by a number of "couplets," paired questions in the questionnaire. The concept of using pairs of questions to come up with a third-person effect score originated with Davison (1983). Traditionally the first question of the couplet is something to the effect of "How much do you think this message affects you?" While the second question is traditionally something like "How much do you think this message affects others?" If the scores of the two groups of questions are significantly different from each other, and the scores of the first question are subtracted from the second question, a positive score will reveal a third-person effect. To avoid hypothesis guessing, the couplet questions were not placed in proximity to each other, but were embedded in the instrument. In order to clarify the difference between self and others for the respondents, the following directions were given: "For the questions on each of the following pages, you will be shown an advertisement and then asked to answer the questions on that page. You will be asked to answer questions about your perceptions and the perceptions of others. By "others," we are referring to other individuals in the United States who have seen the same ads. Questions pertaining to behavior consisted of assessing perceived influence on likelihood to vote. Likelihood to vote was measured with the question: How much does this ad influence your likelihood to go out and vote? Perceived affect on candidate choice was measured with the question: How likely will this ad influence your choice of candidate (who you will vote for)? As with the perception questions, behavior questions were seven-point, equal -interval scales with bipolar opposites, bounded by the adjectives "no influence" and "great influence." Results Three-hundred-forty participated in the study, of whom 206 were female (62 %), with an overall mean age of 19. The sample was predominantly white (89.3%), with 6.2% African American, 2.4% Hispanic, .9% Native American and 1.2% other ethnicities. Six-point-three percent said they were not likely at all to vote, 15.5% said they were somewhat likely to vote and 78.2% said they were very likely to vote. In regard to the upcoming election, 2.7% said they were not interested at all, 9.8% said they were somewhat interested, 25.7% said they were interested, and 61.8% said they were very interested. A manipulation check was performed on the ads to determine if the attack ads were indeed viewed by the respondents as negative and if the positioning ads were viewed by the respondents as positive. Descriptive statistics of the individual ads showed a great difference in means (see Table1). Table 1 Sum of valence scores by ad and ad type Ad# Kind of Ad N Sum Mean Std. Ad1 Attack 339 701 2.07 .92 Ad2 Positioning 338 1,523 4.51 .79 Ad3 Attack 339 594 1.75 .91 Ad4 Positioning 340 1,579 4.64 .63 NB: The range of each of the above scores was five, one being the most negative and five being the most positive. The combined attack ad valence scores each showed a much more negative perception among respondents than the combined positioning ad valence scores (see Table 2). The positioning ads were rated as being much more positive by respondents. To test if this difference was significant, a one way ANOVA was run. Significance was found [F (8, 326) = 23.74, p = .0001]. Table 2 Total summed valence scores for all ads Ad type N (respondents) sum mean std Attack ads 338 1,289 3.81 1.24 Position ads 339 2,169 6.40 1.13 NB: Higher scores mean respondents indicated they believed the ad was more positive. The first and second hypotheses examine the perceptual element, predicting a difference in third-person perception based on positioning and attack political messages. To analyze this it was necessary to group the messages by category and see if the level of third-person perception is significantly different. The two positioning ads' third-person effect scores were calculated using the previously mentioned traditional self minus others method and added together. The two attack ads' third-person effect scores were likewise calculated, added together and compared to the combined scores of the positive ads' third-person effect index using a one way ANOVA. The ANOVA was significant [F (14, 332) = 8.07, p = .0001]. The negative ads had a much higher third-person effect level (which transfers to a lower first-person effect level) and the positive ads had a much lower third-person effect level (a higher first-person effect level). This supports hypotheses 1 and 2, which says positive messages have a greater first-person effect and negative messages have a greater third-person effect, respectively. Table 3 shows the third-person effect score for the negative ads was 1,031, while the third-person effect score for the positive ads was 612, meaning the third-person effect score for the attack ads was 40.65% higher than the third-person effect score for the positioning ads. Table 3 Third-person effect level for positioning and attack ads Ad Type Mean Standard Deviation Sum TPE Attack Ads 3.06 2.65 1,031 TPE Positioning Ads 1.82 3.59 612 Since Hypothesis 3 deals with the behavioral aspect of the third-person effect, the total third-person effect scores of all four ads for both candidates were compared to the total scores for likelihood to vote of the four ads. A regression was used to test the linear nature of this A bivariate-regression between the third-person effect and likelihood to vote resulted in significance [R = .24, R2 = .06, F = (1, 329), 20.00, p = 0001] at the .0001 level (adjusted R2 was not used because the regression was bivariate rather than multivariate). A test of the association between behavioral scores relating for positive and negative ads respectively was run. A one-way ANOVA resulted in significance [F (8, 336) = 72.10, p = .0001]. Table 4 shows participants felt the attack ads were more likely to make them vote. This means likelihood to vote increased as the third-person effect increased, and the third-person effect was a firm predictor of likelihood to vote. This does not support H3. Table 4 Behavioral score descriptive statistics relating to likelihood to vote grouped by positioning and attack ads Mean Standard Deviation Sum Attack Ads 4.62 2.69 1,562 Positioning Ads 4.35 2.17 1,476 N.B.: Question: "How much does this ad influence your likelihood to go out and vote?" Higher scores reflect a greater belief that the ads would affect the participant's likelihood to vote. Discussion The purpose of the current study was to explore third person perceptions with a focus on message valance in political advertising. Our study analyzed how people perceived political advertisements to affect themselves based on the perceptual component of the third-person effect. In addition, we analyzed how these perceived effects influenced peoples' likelihood to go out and vote based on the behavioral component of the third-person effect. Realizing that political advertising has emerged as a central campaign technique in modern elections, we argue that understanding perceived effects of political advertising is an important area of knowledge. Our study found evidence to support the notion that the valance of the advertising content can influence the amount and direction of the third-person effect (Gunther & Thorson, 1992). We found that political attack ads may lead to greater third person perceptions while candidate positioning advertisements led to a first-person effect. These results reinforce research finds by Cohen & Davis (1992). Moving beyond the perceptual component of the third-person effect, we examined how perceived effects of political advertising may influence participants' likelihood to vote. Our results indicated that likelihood to vote increased as the third-person effect increased. These results are contrary to our hypothesis. While third person perceptions were significant predictors of likelihood to vote, the coefficient direction was contrary to our predictions. We found that likelihood to vote decreased as first person perceptions decreased or if phrased in the other direction, likelihood to vote increased as third person perceptions increased. What these results actually point to is that the perceived effects of negative political advertising may actually motivate people to go out and vote. This is contrary to the assumptions of previous research that suggests that negative ads are likely to disenfranchise voters from the political process (Ansolabehere & Iyengar, 1995). It should be noted that while previous TPE researchers such as Cohen and Davis (1991) suggested behavioral consequences of negative political advertising, their study did not actually test for it. The current study did test for a behavioral consequence of the third-person effect in political advertising and found evidence that contradicted Cohen and Davis' conclusion. This study found people are more likely to say they are going to vote if an ad carries an attack. This does not support the disenfranchisement Cohen and Davis suggested. The situation in the current study is one in which respondents felt others would be more affected by political attack ads and yet said those same attack ads were more likely to make them want to vote. The explanation may lie in more recent studies on the third-person effect that have delved into behavior consequences. Paternalism has been offered as a reason people tend to act in certain circumstances involving the third-person effect (McLeod, Detenber & Eveland, 2001). Paternalism suggests that people will react to protect others and in reference to the third-person effect it has been suggested that the third-person effect can lead to paternalism. This may occur because of variables common to both concepts. For instance, both paternalism and the third-person effect rely on a feeling by the individual that they are in a less vulnerable position than their counterparts. Past third-person effect studies have suggested paternalism is responsible for people wanting to censor a variety of sources from rap music to television. The researchers suggest that in this third-person effect study paternalism is also at work and responsible for the link between political attack ads and increased likelihood to vote. The researchers suggest that respondents feel that because the attack ads effect others more than themselves (in their own perception) the "others" are more vulnerable to the attack messages. To combat this, they feel more motivated to get out and vote to balance what they feel is the inequity of knowledge created by vulnerable voters. This model explains the findings in this study. While the findings for hypothesis 3 were not confirmed, the findings do suggest that paternalism may be a factor in how people respond to political media messages in general and political attack ads in particular. Future research could further examine the apparent link between paternalism, third-person effect and political messages in the behavioral realm. Specifically, elements of paternalism should be tested as part of third-person effect experiments instead of merely assumed as a cause. References Ansolabehere, S., Iyengar, S., Simon, A., & Valentino, N. (1994). Does attack advertising demobilize the electorate? American Political Science Review, 88, 829-838. Ansolabehere, S., & Iyengar, S. (1995). Going negative: How political advertising shrinks and polarizes the electorate. 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Appendix A Ad #1 Kerry Male Voiceover: The Bush healthcare record: health insurance costs up 64%; Medicare premiums up by 56%…The Bush healthcare plan: raise insurance premiums for 4 out of 5 small businesses. Over a million more Americans would lose their health insurance coverage…John Kerry: a plan to make healthcare available and affordable, cut the costs for small businesses…John Kerry--a new direction on healthcare. Kerry: I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message. Appendix B Ad #2 Kerry Male Voiceover: He's a husband and father…a hunter…hockey player…tough prosecutor…advocate for kids…a man of faith…a combat veteran who earned 3 purple hearts, risking his life to save others…19 years Senate foreign relations committee, praised by former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff under Presidents Reagan and Clinton…stronger at home, respected in the world…John Kerry for President. Kerry: I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message. Appendix C Ad #3 Bush Bush: I'm George W. Bush, and I approved this message. Female voiceover: Few votes in Congress are as important as funding our troops at war. Though John Kerry voted in October 2002 for military action in Iraq, he later voted against funding our soldiers. Senate role call: Mr. Kerry? Female voiceover: No. Body armor for troops in combat… Senate role call: Mr. Kerry? Female voiceover: No. Higher combat pay… Senate role call: Mr. Kerry? Female voiceover: No. And better healthcare for reservists and their families… Senate role call: Mr. Kerry? Female voiceover: No. Wrong on defense. Appendix D Ad #4 Bush Bush: We're in changing times, and the economy is changing. We need new small business owners, and that's why the policies I put forth help small businesses. We've got tax cuts in place that will help the economy grow, and we've also got plans to help people get the skills necessary to fill the new jobs of the 21st century. I'm optimistic about America because I believe in the people of America. I'm George W. Bush, and I approved this message.