Content-Type: text/html This paper was presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication in San Antonio, Texas August 2005. If you have questions about this paper, please contact the author directly. If you have questions about the archives, email rakyat [ at ] eparker.org. For an explanation of the subject line, send email to [log in to unmask] with just the four words, "get help info aejmc," in the body (drop the ""). (Jan 2006) Thank you. Elliott Parker ==================================================================== A Thought-Experiment with Small-City Media After 4G Wireless Technology Introduction 1 2 A thought experiment Abstract Development of Fourth Generation (4G) wireless broadband technology is the variable in a thought-experiment considering potentials for individuals, bloggers, and newspapers to enter the location of the small-town newspaper and challenge it for dominance. The experiment suggests that the possible 4G (or 5G) ability to transmit video nearly instantly can change the newsgathering process itself, and permit immediate Web publication, creating journalism without gatekeepers, editors, or schedules. 3 A thought experiment A Thought Experiment with Small-City Media After 4G Wireless Technology Introduction [NOTE: As the research for this paper developed, it became clear that the Fourth Generation (4G) wireless broadband communication landscape was unsettled in terms of deployment dates, technology, and capability, with many conflicting beliefs. Yet, it is certain to come. This paper considered the trigger-event of individuals able to transmit live wireless video to a Web site where it could be immediately downloaded by friends or news consumers, in effect, making each person with a video camera and laptop computer a live television broadcast station, anywhere, anytime. Whether the technology is realized in 4G or a later 5G version of wireless communication technology, the model of the individual-as-live station will be realized.] Albert Einstein, along with other notable philosophers and researchers, ran thoughtexperiments, in which an experiment or examination of conditions is performed mentally, rather than through real world experimentation and observation (Brown, 2002). This form of experimentation has proven fruitful; Einstein used the method to begin developing special relativity at the age of 16 (Einstein revealed, 1997). These experiments are done this way for at least two primary reasons: 1) because the technology to test the ideas in real-world conditions does not exist, and 2) new, and innovative understanding about the issue under consideration can actually come about through the very process of deliberate thought about it (Brown, 2002). This paper is developed as a thought-experiment because neither the technology considered as the primary variable nor the emergent social conditions after the technology introduction are available for study. As the experiment, this paper considers the introduction of a new technological variable of 4th generation technology (4G) into the relatively non-competitive 4 A thought experiment economic environment of the small-city newspaper. Certainly, advertising competition exists in the form of publications such as Thrifty Nickel tabloids and local television, but in general, no real competition in terms of print exists. The Variable Fourth-generation high-speed wireless broadband technology is projected to offer speeds capable of transmitting video nearly instantly (Fourth Generation, 2005). The technology is not yet deployed, but its development is advancing. For example, one current estimate for the deployment of 4G suggests the year 2007 (Diaz & Takahashi, 2004), but market challenges may alter this (Super 3G, 2005). This is a technology that is envisioned by some to be a very high speed wireless replacement for DSL (WiMAX, 2005; citing), and that sense of power may prove to be the best way to envision the technology for the short-term. But that is likely a limited notion of what we 4G can do. The very essence of 4G is speed. And contrary to the 1970's saying, speed does not kill. Speed online, is life This paper will explore the potential effect on the competitive environment of the smallcity newspaper once 4G broadband technology is introduced. Additional variables discussed include the increasing credibility handed to bloggers by the public and the press, and the potential for new individuals and media businesses to competitively enter into the small-city news-gathering business with no serious monetary investment or philosophical cost. This is indeed an historical moment comparable to the introduction of the telegraph or the television. We have the opportunity to examine it before it happens to us, and adjust. What follows is a thought-experiment to accomplish that. Issues Review The 4G technology. 5 A thought experiment Fourth-generation wireless technology is both the numbers assigned to up- and download speeds, and the generator of great speculation. The transmission speed values have increased dramatically with each generation of wireless technology introduced: 2G refers to speed of 9.6 kbit/sec which is about six times slower than an ISDN fixed line connection. For third generation mobile (3G) data rates are 384 kbps (download) maximum, typically around 200kbps, and 64kbps upload. In contrast, 4G refers to transmission at 20 Mbps. This is about 2,000 times faster than mobile data rates, and about 10 times faster than top transmission rates, planned in the final build out of 3G broadband mobile. It is about 10-20 times faster than standard ASDL services, introduced for internet connections over traditional copper cables some years ago (4G: 2004). By convention, and ITU and industry forums, 4G requires a minimum of 1 gigabyte of information per second (gbps) fixed, and 100 megabytes per second (mbps) mobile, it "should be IPbased … [and] support next generation applications such as high definition television to the handset, and span fixed and mobile communications" (Super 3G, 2005). Current technology does show speeds of 1 gigabytes per second download, but that is in the lab (Super 3G, 2005). Though this is download speed only, with upload at about 100 megabytes per second, this speed will apparently accommodate full-motion video over devices as simple as a 4G wireless phone, not to mention home computers, or a laptop on a table as the coffee is served at a Starbucks. (4G commercial, 2004). The marketplace is currently sizing up the various 4G options worldwide (Super 3G, 2005). And whether the dominant player becomes the Intel-backed WiMAX system or another, the end result seems to be about the same. Any market which chooses 4G technology will have always-on, very high speed wireless broadband available. In terms of WiMAX, this would be 6 A thought experiment anywhere within a 30-mile line-of-sight range of the base antenna; or 10-miles if another report is more accurate (Diaz & Takahashi, 2005). It is anticipated that antennae would overlap, providing a seamless ability to transmit and receive no matter where one was located or traveling. Most significantly in terms of the small-city newspaper, 4G will be capable of pushing the string of video in a smooth and clear manner. And because it is wireless broadband permeating the ether, the promise, according to some as noted above, is that anyone will be able to move video to anyone else, in real time from anywhere. The loss of newspaper readership. The fact of newspaper readership loss is well-established, but the Internet and news gathering by the young on the Net provide a look at where this youth market may be reached. State of the Media (n.d.) notes that in the last six months of 2004, "Save for online, the story of newspaper circulation was a return to accelerated decline … For the six months ending September 30, 2004, circulation at the 841 daily papers and 662 largest papers for which audited totals were available was down 0.9% daily and 1.5% Sunday" ("Newspapers/Audience; chap: Average Circulation of U.S. Daily Newspapers"). The report goes on to note a Pew Research Center poll in April 2004, found that "60% of people said they read a daily newspaper 'regularly,' the lowest number since Pew began asking the question in 1990. Through the 1990s, the number was stable at around 70%. ("Newspapers/Audience,a; chap: Daily Newspapers by Circulation Category, 2003)" Broadband and Internet News Are Chosen More Often. Conventional wisdom in the past held that most people in the past did not purchase broadband because they saw no compelling content-based reason to do so. Dial-up is quite 7 A thought experiment sufficient for almost all Web and e-mail use. One could almost blame good compression technologies in site design which make sites reasonably downloadable at dial-up speeds, as the cause for the earlier failure of broadband. Nevertheless, in-home broadband is now the rule, rather than the exception: "Broadband penetration in the US grew by 1.1 points to 54.69% in December, up from 53.59% in November." (U.S. Broadband). And entire cities are gearing up to go wireless, with Philadelphia being one of the most prominent (Briefing). As an aside, it is suggested that the increase in broadband may be because a reason to purchase high speed did develop in the last two years – inexpensive digital photography. Sending large digital image files to friends and family requires the dial-up user to know the technology to compress the images, or at the very least, put up with long upload and download times. High-speed broadband makes it quick. These are just still images. The possibility for consumer response to instant moving images would seem to offer even greater promise. See the note about Reuters offering raw feed to consumers below. Concurrently, online news reading is increasing among Web users. "The percentage of Americans who say they go online for news three or more times a week stood at 29%, according to the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, up from 25% in 2002 and 23% in 2000." The ones who stated in May through June 2004 they had at one time or another gone online for news stood at 66 percent for women and 77 percent for men, and those who had gone online for news just the day before stood at 21 percent for women, and 34 percent for men (Online/Audiences). Blogs have already garnered credibility in terms of recognition by the established media, Blogs. with the Washington Post even acknowledging a people's choice in the best of political blogs of 8 A thought experiment 2004 (Best blogs). Some of these web logs have also proven to be relatively responsible and innovative in their work, so much so that four of them are credited with creating the atmosphere of skepticism around the documents CBS used for its reports about the President Bush's early 1970's military service (Kopytoff, 2005, and How four, 2004). Television news personalities such as Keith Olbermann of MSNBC's Countdown now blog regularly and these writings are featured promotion tools on their shows. Kopytoff (2005) cites a Pew Internet & American Life Project study indicating that about 8 million people in the US have blogs, and about 32 million have read one. The blog has become mainstream and has functioned in a journalistic manner, though not at all times, and not always well. But people are writing them, and many more are reading them. Methodology The critical elements for the thought experiment are in place: 1) 4G technology and the (potential) capability to instantly transmit video from anywhere in a region served by 4G in most anyone's hands, 2) newspapers' loss of readership continues, notably within the younger generation, 3) the public has demonstrated an increasing acceptance of and desire for the values found in high-speed broadband, 4) the public continues to increase its use of the Internet for news, 5) and the public is developing an acceptance of the value of the non-establishment news/editorial voice seen in the blogging phenomenon. We will consider introduction of these variables into the competitive environment of the small-town newspaper. This paper now turns to the results of the experiment. Results It can be argued that with the introduction of 4G, we will become a society of video. Still photos exclusively on the front page of a newspaper's Web site will not be acceptable – that 9 A thought experiment space will become, in large part, live full-motion video updates, or something close to live since the TV news stations will be doing that also. And while history and a once-a-day printing schedule have provided the print newspaper an excuse for getting old information late to the public in a single morning edition, the expectations of the Web user will be merciless and demanding. Immediate updates, full-motion video, and constant addition of new stories around the clock will become the rule. Part of this scenario has been sketched out in the past and people have come to ignore it because the technology was not in place to enable the predictions. But relatively cheap, alwayson, always-everywhere, wireless broadband 4G technology may be capable of delivering on the promise, or the threat. Discussion Small-town media's susceptibility to competitive blogging. One issue stands out in considering how the small-city newspaper may be challenged in the 4G future that goes beyond the technological ones. The established media have quite unwittingly provided the springboard for the challenge to their position as news providers. They have, often with a good degree of exuberance, reported the blogging phenomenon. The "problem" with this public examination of blogging and, in many cases, wide-eyed wonder, is that the citizen-blogger has now taken on a great deal of credibility. What was once merely a lone voice on the Web talking about political corruption, has now become the blog ... a focal point for many Web users to read, consider, and respond to daily. In essence, the credibility of the citizen-blogger can now rival the credibility of the newspaper and TV news, and in some cases, surpass them. Blog fans are proud that they, not Dan Rather were 10 A thought experiment right about the Bush papers. In fact, the newspapers themselves send the message that the blogs are credible each time they highlight a blog coup. The hurdle of credibility was the last element the independent online daily needed to get past in order to begin its challenge to the established media in the small city. The challenge to print. The Internet has always offered the potential of the independent person or organization developing an online newspaper. But now, with 4G technology possibly permitting instant-feed capability from remote locations allowing the reporter to move story-to-story without a need to touch base and write a report/news story, and the rather postmodern increase in credibility of the individual news source, there will exist a perfect storm of opportunity for challenges to the established small-city newspaper. Whether the challenge be a response to students' complaints in college towns that the daily paper doesn't carry anything of relevance to their lives (personal conversations, 2000-2002), or a greater emphasis on the rural community than the current daily provides, or a deeper and more adversarial approach to local government and business interests, the independent online daily (IOD) will have a number of advantages over the printed version. In simple economic terms – the advantage to the independent online daily is that the competition's printed version is printed, and delivered. The costs of "being paper" are large. An IOD eliminates these costs, and one can be started by nearly anyone with a bit of time and money on their hands. In readership terms – the advantage lies in the fact that that a single IOD can address the concerns of large segments of the population (e.g., students, rural interests), by "re-zoning" the online paper according to interest-group, rather than localize along simplistic geographic zones, for each subscriber. What this means is that each interest group would receive the online paper in 11 A thought experiment its entirety, but with the information of interest to that group brought to the front page; with the front page configured uniquely to each primary interest group. This would require no more than a few minutes page layout and upload to the Web site for each principle interest group. The online paper also has the capability to update older stories and place new ones on the Web site as soon as they're taped or voice-recognitioned over the phone into a column of text. The attendant advantages and disadvantages in terms of leaving little time for editing, reflection, and accuracy checking of this immediate-update capability are obvious and have been points of concern without universal resolution for a number of years now. Regardless of the legitimate concerns, the speed of the report will become a critical competitive factor once again. In the current age, it really means little to a reader or viewer that a news source was first with the information. In most cases, news is already old information by the time most people receive. Production delays age news quickly. The delays of newspaper story writing, editing, printing and newspaper delivery are particularly lengthy. The delays caused by TV news program time slots are obvious, But, there is also the unexamined fact that TV news presentation is linear and by the time the news reader has finished with one story, the next story closing out the broadcast may be outdated. The delays of production have consistently wrung the newness out of the news, and people are smart enough to understand this. In a 4G world, the cost of providing stale information in this instant-gratification society, would be prohibitive. If it's true that people will buy into broadband once they see a compelling reason for the speed, the speed in news delivery may become all-important to news organizations. Use of 4G will probably enable reporters to send raw feed straight to their subscribers. This may eventually redefine the editor's position and responsibilities in most news organizations. Could one afford 12 A thought experiment the time to edit information before releasing it, while the competition has that 5-alarm fire being fed directly to the Web viewer? Should one turn it over to the Web viewer watching the three reporters covering that fire sending raw feed to the Web – will it just be left to Web viewers to bounce between the reports as they happen, becoming their own editors? The compelling nature of watching live has already been demonstrated. The authors of the page about online audiences in State of the Media 2005 (Online/Audiences, n.d.) report that in conversation, Reuters representatives noted that: When Reuters put up a section of raw video called Reuters Raw in March 2003, tens of thousand of people watched unedited streaming video of big events like developments in Iraq. Those viewers, Reuters reported, said they preferred seeing what's "really" happening unfiltered by editors. If this immediate-update capability is thought of in terms of subscriber use and advertising, the online daily begins to show an economic promise and advantage the standard printed newspaper cannot ever offer. The user of the online daily might return to the same Web site, and story, several times a day to review it for changes. Eyeballs (readers) are thus delivered at a multiple rate, as compared to the one-time "read it and throw it away" pattern of the printed newspaper. We may want to examine the advertising rates for the online paper as based on the returning-reader rate, in addition to a single-impression, click-through, or preferred placement methods. In considering the above idea of return visitors drawn by an expectation of updated news, the notion of unique site visitors may not be all that valuable. Repeated exposure to a single ad on the home page by returning site visitors looking for updated news may be the best 13 A thought experiment way to measure an ad's potential. And to charge for it. In the end, though, the idea has difficulties since costs of advertising would be unpredictable. Traditional papers going online. Interestingly, in the small city, the competition from an independent online daily and the large economic drain of paper, printing and delivery costs may force the local newspaper to move exclusively to an online presence much earlier than many would currently predict. This, of course, raises many questions, such as access to information by those unable to afford a computer, rural Net access, and others. These are truly deep and troubling issues. But, and this said without any cynicism, those left behind because they cannot afford Web access once a paper-newspaper goes completely online will likely not have commercially desirable demographics in terms of age and income, and will not provide a reasonable economic base for a newspaper to continue printing. Yes, there is the admirable notion of public service providing a reason to continue printing. But the first order of a business is survival. If it cannot survive, the newspaper has no hope of providing the public service ever. This notion of any newspaper going exclusively online presupposes that people will be willing to literally let go of their page-turning habits. A lot of people feel that this simply is not going to happen, and claim the newspaper is going to be around for many years down the road. However, if the competition from the independent online paper is strong enough, the sheer economic cost of the real-world newspaper might force this change. As we become a society that sits itself down at the computer in the morning to check email, it becomes harder to find time to devote to reading a real paper. It is considerably easier to 14 A thought experiment just drop the e-mail into the background and click on the personal favorite icon leading to the electronic version of one's preferred newspaper. And most newspapers don't fit on a computer desk, where a lot of potential readers spend their time. What does the online paper contribute to the paper paper? Classified advertising appears to be the profit center for most online newspapers. And while the online newspaper cannibalizes its parent paper to some degree, it also takes people away from television news and places them in front of the computer screen (Power, 2004). As more TV news watchers are recruited to the online newspaper, publishers and editors may need to re-conceptualize what the online newspaper should deliver to its reader. The television user gives up some kind of television-watching experience by going to the online news. Those building content and experience in the online Web paper may examine the site for its potential to provide what the former TV viewer has given up. For example, the TV news often provides its most colorful characters in the weather forecasting. So far, there is no attempt by any newspaper this author is aware of to develop a cult following of its weather people, much less even identify a person responsible for the weather forecasting. If a newspaper were to create a persona around the individual who takes the forecasts off the feeds and slams it into the Web site with blogged commentary, we should expect a following of the person and the online paper to emerge. This is just one point of opportunity among many which could be capitalized on to enhance the online newspaper. A small rural paper in Kansas, for example, could become the preferred choice for people in times of emergency weather conditions such as the threat-time of a tornado approaching, if the paper had two elements established: 1) a weather person the public had come to trust, and 2) 15 A thought experiment streaming media that would allow instant live-action updates. There will be no reason in the 4G/5G world that the newspaper should abdicate the opportunity for live-update information feeds to the TV stations. The challenge to local television news. Most likely, the act of updating stories will place the independent online daily/IOD reporter at the location of the story, if it's not one that can be covered simply by interviewing people over the phone. This independent reporter would be able to take new digital photographs and/or shoot video with a digital video camera and immediately upload the visuals to the online daily's Web site by 4G broadband. This is wireless transmission of news with immediate Web user availability and the independent online daily becomes competitive with television news, in addition to the local paper. The cost advantages of the independent online daily are greater than the local television station. Costs involved in studio and office space, building maintenance, rent and others are reduced or eliminated to a large degree. A spare bedroom, appropriately soundproofed should be sufficient for a studio to start, though the wide shots of the large sets found on even local television news are quite appealing. The same computers used for writing stories can be used for editing video tape. In essence, the IOD can become a TV station online at minor cost. Costs could be contained by the IOD even with stories being updated constantly. New footage is shot as-needed by individual reporters, not news teams; voice-overs are dubbed on-site as-needed; and using voice-recognition technology, actual in-depth, print-journalism-style written copy with hyperlinks to additional information can be provided, thus offering both print and television news functions. In one reporter. 16 A thought experiment There will likely also be a shifting of ad time pricing for traditional TV because of the competitive situation caused by the constant news updating by the IOD. With the IOD, the subscriber pulls the information to him- or herself when it is convenient, rather than when the high-priced advertising is scheduled to run within the 5:00 local news on regular television. This kind of pull vs. push programming competition would likely play havoc with the pricing for spots on traditional television news programs since TV news viewership should fall if the IOD provides competitive content and strong production values. It should be noted that various outlines of this change in pricing for local TV news slots were part of the early projections for how the Internet would disrupt traditional media. And as noted with other similar projections, they disappeared when the technology proved far less capable than people's imaginations. With 4G/5G, the technology should be quite capable. However, the advantage does not go strictly to the IOD. TV stations are already experimenting with streaming media and should be expected to universally offer the instant-4G capability even without a direct challenge for viewers by the IOD. And with the local paper's version of the online daily offering much the same information and video, we begin to see a new form of that once-praised concept, convergence, begin to emerge. The established newspaper and television news, and the independent news challenger all will likely begin to look quite alike. The competitive arena will not allow anyone to forsake full-motion video, interesting personalities, and some degree of archiving that people can tap into to find more information about a news event. The challenge to the independent online daily. The IOD itself will confront a variety of challenges. These include: the need to establish credibility in the face of the community's long-standing relationship with traditional print and 17 A thought experiment TV (this has been discussed above in terms of blogger credibility); the need for relatively deep pockets in terms of funding since advertising revenues will depend on the long-term growth of credibility and the community's use of the online daily; and talent raids by the traditional media to bolster their own online capabilities and to weaken the independent online daily by removing talent from it. Advertising dollars and audiences. With the online consumer selecting the stories, how does the television news program charge for the advertising in the Web environment? One current method is to charge a standard rate for space for advertising that appears on a page of the site. However, a more rational way might be to charge by story selected (a variant of traditional click-through charging), so that if a Web page with a story and advertising is pulled at a rate twice that of another story, the station would charge twice as much. Advertising costs become a gamble on both the advertiser's and the TV station's part, since neither would know the final outcome of the number of page-views until the story was concluded. In the end, though, we will likely continue the practice of charging the advertiser for click-throughs from the ad Web page, to the advertiser's page. Yet, page views or click-throughs based on the story could add a real interesting opportunity. Advertisers could monitor the news and project people's interest, so that if they become aware of a serial killer's apprehension, for example, the advertisers could bid to appear on that story's page ... and the online TV station, newspaper, or IOD could open bidding for placement on the page much in the way one would auction off a prize antique. The auction would establish the price of the click-through, or the price of placement on the page. 18 A thought experiment Certainly, it would be smart for the IOD, at least, to work with the search engine Google in its Ad Sense program, in which a person is served up a small number of Google ads related to the information on that page when they go to a Web page. It gets even more competitive for the advertising dollars. Even with its surface-level competitive advantages, the survival of the independent online daily/IOD is not a foregone conclusion. However, by the time the traditional media begin to move against the competitive challenge posed, the IOD may have already established itself as the preferred brand of news and other information for advertiser-desired interest groups such as local high school and college students, and the wealthy. The established online newspaper and TV will each deliver a similar flow of information along with a decreasing pool of advertising to a set population, (the advertising base will be depleted by the draw of the IOD). As the battle wages, the IOD will pack its Web site with content that skews toward the target groups it believes provide the best advertising demographics and psychographics. It will do this for its carefully defined target markets, not the whole of the market. In contrast, the established media will generally continue to try to reach most people. This niche newspapering gives the IOD the opportunity to concentrate its reporting in the areas of interest for its identified targets at lower personnel costs, in contrast to the personnel-costly general reporting of the established newspaper. This may seem to make the IOD far too niche-oriented to be considered a "real" online newspaper, so to keep the value such real-paper designation may offer, the IOD will need to be sure it does some significant stories on the general community as the cost of doing business. The IOD becomes a better citizen through this kind of work, and could gain respect from major advertisers. 19 A thought experiment Revenue for online newspapers is located around advertising, with the idea of charging site visitors to read stories seemingly unworkable (Seelye, 2005). Seelye notes that "[o]f the nation's 1,456 daily newspapers, only one national paper, the Wall Street Journal … and about 40 small dailies charge readers to use their Web sites." This stands as testimony to the common wisdom about the consumer's attitude about information content on the Web – that it must be free or it will be bypassed (porn excepted). Another threat to the advertising base. If those advertising revenues the online paper depends on were threatened by outsider (or even internal to the city) Web sites that became known for low-cost classified placement and if those sites were able to develop even a moderate presence in the city, the newspaper's online revenues would be deeply threatened. This does not require 4G. Consider the potential for eBay.com opening up a national classified ad site, or Google offering free advertising. It could be this easy – click on Google's home page Classified Ads link, type in Wichita, Kansas, and get the Wichita advertising to select from. Google would list ads for free, making its money with its current targeted words listing. People would likely place their ads on that big-brand site because it's free, and the local paper is not. And people would get used to the idea of Google being the brand with the ads, even though it is not local – the brand has that much cachet already. A site called craigslist already has this kind of advertising, and though it draws four million visitors a month (Online/Intro, n.d.), it appears the name is not wellknown enough to have the kind of killer-category capability a Google site may have. The small-city newspapers, however, do have the advantage of the revenues generated by the printed version, and this alone may be the reason they continue to print, even though the firstglance economic advantage lies in going purely online. Perhaps, what remains paper is strictly 20 A thought experiment the advertising. All actual news content goes online. This breakup of the connection of print media carrying both news and advertising could possibly prove to be the strongest move a smallcity newspaper could make. One can imagine real money put into this so that it is a slick twiceweekly publication, four-color capable and impeccably designed. A unique quality resource that people may actually pay for, even though the information is also online. Who is the chosen one? If we view the online competitive environment as strictly a matter between the established newspaper and the TV news station, it appears that a well-run newspaper, willing to enter a video-dominant online presentation rather than a traditional printed-word/still-image version, will have the advantage over the local TV station. Newspapers have traditionally been believed to offer longer, and more in-depth reporting than TV news. This cultural understanding, whether true or not, may become the determinant for news consumers who seek an understanding of issues, rather than a glossing over. This is not to say that the TV Web sites will not attract visitors. Indeed, the brevity with which stories are perceived to be treated would be welcomed by many who feel their time is compressed. What this tells the online newspaper is that it needs to provide two versions of the major stories. The first would be the traditional developed story. The second would be the truncated time-saving story. This continues the previously mentioned strategy of giving the TV viewers the sense that they have not lost anything in switching to the newspaper Web site. The potentials of larger-media takeover. Finally, there's the concern with "outsider newspaper competition." So far, the competitive environment of newspaper, TV, and independent online daily has been considered solely in terms of media developed in and operating within the small city. 21 A thought experiment The small-city newspaper could be threatened by a major newspaper or television station from a large city in the region. Think in terms of one of the two main newspapers in Denver, either the Rocky Mountain News or the Denver Post, setting up a three-person news team in a small Colorado town such as Durango, in the southwest corner of the state; two people to report, one to constantly feed that instant-information into the Web site. Note especially that this is not to suggest a two-person reporting team can take the place of a strong small-city newspaper reporting staff that covers events for all people. Rather, both the interloper online paper and the homegrown IOD target their reporting only to the needs of the most advertiser-desired demographic groups and develop information for them only. With this targeting, there is no need for a relatively large staff at either online paper. This small team from the major newspaper, say the Rocky Mountain News (RMN) would establish a Web presence and create its own RMN online daily for Durango featuring Durango stories, with additional statewide, national, and international content coming from its home base in Denver. The cost would be minimal because no printed version need be run or distributed; the RMN online daily for Durango could be easily configured and customized online; and additional regional information would be gathered by other similar RMN news teams in other areas of the state. Because this new online RMN daily has news from the local area and the entire state it could easily become the choice of a large segment of the advertiser-preferred local population. This kind of competitive environment could be created in any number of small cities in a region in which one central city dominates. The potential harm caused to the small-city newspaper leaves one legitimately concerned about the collapse of the range of media voices of the region into one. 22 A thought experiment The small-city newspaper knee-jerk response to the outsider would be to remind readers that they are local. And because they are local they can give the local people what they really need. Localization has long been used by newspapers large and small to attempt to bring a differentiating value to the publication, but localization alone may fall flat as a value to the reader/viewer. It is only when the meaning of localization is brought home to the newspaper reader or TV viewer in significant ways that localization matters. The current practice of advertising a TV channel's news as being local completely fails to address this issue of meaningfulness, and likely fails to deliver its promise to the viewers, or the station. The Wal-Martification of the small-city press. A second possibility is similar to the one above, but potentially even more threatening in the sense of lost voices. Consider the notion that the Los Angeles Times or the New York Times establishes a several-person staff in each of a number of small cities in the region and produces online dailies specific to each of them, complete with relevant national and international information that comes from the central publishing enterprise. While some may believe that the large-city paper would never be accepted by the small-city folk, that may well be underestimating the desire for national and international information people expect from a news source -- USA Today is found in convenience stores or in newsstands across the country. With the above, not only is there a loss of the diversity of voices, but the advertising revenues would be removed from the cities. This is money that currently stays within the community. What may be most interesting, however, is that all of this has not yet begun to take place on a wholesale level. While this paper started with an examination of the imagination-seductive 4G technology and its potential for real-time, inexpensive wireless delivery of video and other 23 A thought experiment information, it is not a necessary component for the new competitive landscape to begin to emerge. The 4G or 5G technology will be necessary for the competitive levels to develop fully, however. It may be that the larger papers have just been assuring themselves that an online paper can deliver a reliable revenue stream before they make their move into the small city. And as small-city newspapers go increasingly online and learn how they can use black ink instead of red, proving the viability of their particular market, they become targets for the larger papers or a small group of local bloggers. Not for purchase, but to compete head-to-head and take it down with their new online paper with no real overhead, and each with access to a unique wealth of information. This is certainly not the preordained end of traditional media in the small city. The local media and people have a lot of shared social history and there is a cultural history of trust and civic involvement. Local media can leverage that goodwill and history as they move online and establish their presence there. However, the very market these traditional media need to attract in order to continue as businesses, the younger market, is not picking up the newspaper habit as was predicted, and this younger market is likewise turning away from old technology, like TV (Power user, 2004, p. 15). We can expect that the real battle will be waged for these younger people who represent the very future of the media and its advertising. The advantage then goes to the medium which is best able to meet the needs and expectations of that younger market by providing truly innovative and preemptive use of the Web, and delivering content that has meaning to the target. So far, unfortunately, we see little of this from traditional print and television in the small city. Or large-city media, for that matter. 24 A thought experiment Conclusion How can the current small-city newspaper deal with this coming 4G potential? In terms of technology, the newspaper will become TV news on the Web, with several distinct advantages and differences. Above all, the paper must recognize that it is not dealing so much with a new technology, as it is the real changing relationship it must manage with its readers and the community's television viewers as 4G takes hold. The small-city newspaper must realize its own historical advantages in terms of depthreporting and its position as the community touchstone. And yes, while doing these noble things, the small-city newspaper must also look at ways to incorporate games, full-motion and creative entertainment listings, and other non-traditional offerings into the online version to attract the young reader. It must do these things before 4G becomes the rule in as short a time as a few years. Because at that point, competitors will have taken their long-held position away. 25 A thought experiment References 4G Commercial Services Targeted by 2010. (2004, December 13). 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