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Consonance and disparity; intervention and negativity: News topic dynamics and effects of media events






CONSONANCE AND DISPARITY; INTERVENTION AND NEGATIVITY:
NEWS TOPIC DYNAMICS AND EFFECTS OF MEDIA EVENTS















A paper submitted to Communication Theory and Methodology Division, Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Miami Beach, August 2002


Juyan Zhang
Doctoral student
Missouri School of Journalism
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CONSONANCE AND DISPARITY; INTERVENTION AND NEGATIVITY:
NEWS TOPIC DYNAMICS AND EFFECTS OF MEDIA EVENTS

Abstract
Through a content analysis, the research examined consonance and disparity of news topics in major U.S. press coverage of China. The newspapers were found to share a similar pattern in selecting negative topics, but were disparate in balancing different topic categories. Their coverage of China also appeared to have been affected by three important events in Sino-U.S. relations. The research improved measurement of topic category dynamics from nominal and ordinal scales to ratio scale.














CONSONANCE AND DISPARITY; INTERVENTION AND NEGATIVITY:
NEWS TOPIC DYNAMICS AND EFFECTS OF MEDIA EVENTS

Introduction
Consonance in selection of news topics by news media is a widely documented phenomenon. However, disparity in topic patterns has seldom been addressed in a clear and accurate way. Most studies examined "tensions," or disparity between topic categories through ranking topic frequencies and calculating their percentages. Such methods are not accurate enough due to the nominal and ordinal nature of the measurement scales. Through examining negative coverage of China by the major U.S. newspapers, the New York Times (NYT), the LA Times (LAT), and the Washington Post(WPOST), this research improved measurement of topic tensions from nominal and ordinal scales to ratio scale. The thesis also tested effects of three important events in Sino-U.S. relations upon media coverage of China.

Literature Review
Press consonance and China in U.S. media
Media consonance, or media homogeneity, is a widely documented phenomenon in journalism research. For example, Noelle-Neumann (1973) noticed very early that there was a consonance phenomenon in modern mass media. They tend to treat or cover the same issues or events in similar ways. One of the underlying causes for this phenomenon, according to Noelle-Neumann (1981), is a peculiar kind of consensus noted in the aggregate of journalists: they express in their reports the opinions of their fellow journalists. The governing principles of news values in everyday journalistic work evoke a remarkable consonance of media content. Chomsky (1988) found that most newspapers draw their stories from Associated Press or Reuters newswires. In addition, they found that the AP transmits the articles that will be on the front page of the New York Times and that the syndicated columnists only serve to further accentuate this effect. There are many studies that found notable absences in the news med
ia of the diverse perspectives that would be expected in a geographically expansive and culturally diverse country like the United States (Hester, 1971; Donohue & Glasser, 1978; Gormley, 1976; Gaziano, 1989). In international news coverage, it is repeatedly found that the Western media presents the developing world in an unfavorable light by stressing crisis, strikes, street demonstrations, putsches, etc. (Masmoudi, 1979; Weaver & Wilhoit, 1981; McNelly & Izcaray, 1986; Graber, 1993). This has been one of most common complaints by the third-world countries with regard to their images in the media of the developed countries (Stevenson & Cole, 1984).

Similarly, U.S. media coverage of China has long been a controversial issue. At a conference hosted by the National Committee on United States-China Relations and the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, many American conference attendants viewed U.S. media coverage of China as balanced and objective, yet most attendees from China disagreed ("Conference on U.S. Media Coverage of China," 1998). In another conference attended by news staffs of major U.S. news organizations, including reporters from the NYT, WPOST, American Press, and the Time along with Chinese reporters, governmental officials, and scholars, the controversy was the same:  American attendees viewed their coverage as balanced and objective; while the Chinese attendants disagreed ("U.S. media and China-America relations," December 12, 2000). Some media in China believed that the U.S. news media misrepresented China's international image, created unfavorable notions, and portrayed depressing vers
ions of the China threat theory (Beijing Review, 1997).

In media research, Goodman (1999) examined the coverage of China in the WPOST and NYT and found that 24 percent of the stories dealt with severe crisis, 70 percent with conflict, and 32 percent with violence. Perlmutter (1996) found that the pictorial coverage of China varied little between the publications and that the coverage was not objective, and tended to focus on dysfunctional social events and mainly concentrated on the activities of political leaders. Moreover, the evaluative views of China were positive or negative in relation to shifts in American foreign policy. Mann (1999) observed that American news organizations often portray China in an overly simplistic fashion, and that the stories about China tend to be governed by a single story or image. Mann believes that such a simplification leads to many negative effects both direct and indirect. Through a content analysis of 10 years of NYT's coverage of human rights in China, Li and Cyr (1998) found that the newspaper co
ntinued its coverage of human rights in China in an ascending pattern. Yan (1993) reported that although the U.S. media have covered China in a negative light since 1989, articles on Chinese lifestyle and social attitudes have begun to appear in the U.S. press, promoting a more objective view of China. No particular study on the LAT's coverage of China was found. However, it was found that foreign news in the paper was largely negative (Beaudoin & Thorson, 2001). Based on above literature, one hypothesis and a research question were developed:

H1: Negative coverage of China is significantly more than positive, neutral, or balanced in each of the three major U.S. newspapers.

RQ1. How similar are the three major newspapers with regard to their selection of negative topics about China?

Topics tensions and newspaper disparity
Although topic selection patterns have been found to be similar in different newspapers, there is no perfect consonance (Riffe & Shaw, 1982). Topic categories may be balanced in different ways between newspapers, which reflect differences between news organizations (Shoemaker & Reese, 1996). Apart from consonance, this research also examined disparity between newspapers by looking at how they balanced negative topic categories about China. Few studies addressed the issue of disparity between papers accurately. For example, as reviewed above, Goodman (1999) examined percentages of different topics on China in WPOST and NYT and found that 24 percent of the stories dealt with severe crisis, 70 percent with conflict, and 32 percent with violence. However, the tensions between different topics and disparity between newspapers are not clear. To accurately reveal the pattern disparity between newspapers, an often-adopted methodology must be addressed first. This is not discussed in the m
ethodology section of the paper because it directly relates to the research question itself.

Many studies approached balancing the categories between newspapers through ranking topic frequencies and calculating their percentages. The 1980 project of the International Association for Mass Communication Research (IAMCR) categorized news topics in Mexican media into 18 categories and ranked the categories (Stevenson, 1984). Riffe and Shaw (1982) categorized foreign news topics in two U.S. newspapers and found there was a high consonance between the two papers. They further examined the disparity between the papers through calculating percentages. They found that the major disparity between the papers' topic agendas involved the miscellaneous "bad news" (earthquakes, floods, deaths, etc) and human-interest topics. Employing the same methods, Guido (1985) found major media agreed on relative emphasis on various types of news, but not in selection of individual items. As mentioned before, Goodman (1999) examined the coverage of China in the WPOST and NYT and calculated percentages of different topic categories. Frequency rank and per
centage calculation were also used in analyzing patterns of message structure in international TV commercials (Reid et al, 1985).

However, with topic frequencies and percentages, the question of how different newspapers are still not clear, because the measurement is either of nominal or ordinal scale, instead of ratio scale. This research estimated logistic regression models and converted the dependent variable from nominal scale to ratio scale. Thus the tensions (or distances) between topic categories within a newspaper and disparity between newspapers were examined altogether through estimating odds ratio and comparing the regression models. Two research questions were raised with regard to the three major newspapers' balancing of topic categories about China:

RQ2. What are the odds of being negative for a news topic about China in each of the three newspapers?

RQ3. How different are the newspapers with regard to their balancing of negative topic categories about China?

Media events, cultivation and changes of media coverage
It has been noticed that media coverage of a state may change in the light of some important media events. Anthony et al (2000) observed that hosting the U.N. summit resulted in a nation getting a higher profile than it would if only a participant. Chang (1984) found that coverage of Reagan's China policy in the NYT, WPOST and LAT was different before and after Ronald Reagan became president. It is also observed that media coverage of a state can be cultivated through international public relations sponsored by foreign governments (Hill, 1999; Seaver, 1998; Kunczik, 1992; Cutlip, 1989; Manheim & Albritton; 1984; Sigal, 1973; Davison, 1974).

Three important events took place in Sino-American relations in September 2000. One was the U.S. Congressional voting for the China trade status bill (the Permanent National Treatment Rights bill). Another was the collapse of the Wen Ho Lee case, in which a Chinese-American scientists in U.S. Los Alamos laboratory was alleged to have stolen U.S. nuclear secrets for China but turned out to be innocent and was acquitted. At the same time, the Chinese government launched an international public relations campaign to improve its image in the U.S. media at a crucial moment when the U.S. Congress was to vote for the China trade bill. The campaign strategies included: the "2000 U.S. Tour of Chinese Culture" in 9 American cities, CBS's 60 Minutes interviewed China's President, Chinese President Jiang Zemin met chief officers of some U.S. media group, the Chinese navy visited Hawaii. The New York Times described the campaign as the "first large-scale attempt by the Chinese government at pu
blic relations and marketing in the United States," which would "help at least somewhat to humanize a country that is frequently demonized in the American psyche as a colorless land of fear and forced abortions" (New York Times, August 23, 2000). In order to examine whether there were any changes in the three major newspapers' negative coverage of China during the three events that took place in the same month, two hypotheses were developed:

H2:  There should be no significant difference between the amount of negative coverage before and after September 2000 in the three newspapers.

H3: There should be no significant difference between the negative coverage before and during September 2000.



Methodology
Sampling
The analysis was conducted with data collected from three major U.S. newspapers, WPOST, NYT, and LAT during a nine-month period from May 2000 to January 2001, with four months before and four months after September 2000 when there were three important events involving China in the United States. The three newspapers were selected because of their international newsgathering ability and extensive international/foreign affairs coverage (Graber, 1989). The population for statistics is all of the stories about China in the three newspapers during the nine-month period. Stratified random sampling with a 50 percent proportional allocation was used, with each month defined as a stratum. Two independent coders coded all of the sample stories. Scott's Pi for intercoder reliability is .92, p< .05.

Topic Categories
The research adapted the topic categories and sub-categories of the 1980 project of the IAMCR (the International Association for Mass Communication Research) (Stevenson, 1984) and some other relevant studies (Bush, 1960; Sreberny-Mohammadi, 1985; Gonzenbach, et al, 1992; Norris, 1995; Wanta & Hu, 1993). The topic categories and subcategories are: 1. Politics (POLITICS), including PRC domestic politics and its international politics; 2. Economics (ECONOM), including PRC domestic economics and international economy; 3. Defense/nuclear weapons/war crisis and Taiwan Straits issue (DEFENSE); 4. Science & Culture (SCICUTU), including science, ecology, technology, culture, religion and sports; and 5. Society & Law (SCOILEG), including disasters, unrest, terrorism, law, crimes, population and social service/welfare/education.

Dependent Variable and Independent Variables
The dependent variable measures the favorableness of coverage of China. The positive coverage was evaluated dichotomously as negative and non-negative. Negative stories were those reflecting conflicts, disorganization, instability and weakness. Non-negative stories include positive, neutral and balanced stories. Positive stories were defined as those reflecting social cohesion, co-operation, stability and strength. Balanced stories were defended those reflecting both positive and negative sides. Neutrality reflects neither positive nor negative conditions (Budd, et al, 1967; Eribo, 1993). The independent variables used in the empirical analysis include newspapers, time, and topic categories on politics, economics, society/law, science/culture, and defense, respectively. The 9-month period of time is divided into three periods: time before intervention, time of intervention, and time after intervention. Time before intervention is excluded as a comparison group in estimating logist
ic regression models. The intervention include three events occurred in September 2000: collapse of Wen Ho Lee case, Congressional voting of China's PNTR bill, and China's public relations campaign.

Logistic Regression Models
Since the dependent variable is discrete, the ordinary least squares regression can be used to fit a linear probability model. However, because the linear probability model is heteroskedastic and may predict probability values beyond the (0,1) range, the logistic regression model was used instead (Stynes & Peterson, 1984; Greene, 1997). Besides, the tensions between topic categories that were measured so far in nominal and ordinal scale can be measured in more precise ration scale in the logistic regression model.

Results
Consonance in negative topic categories
It was found that favorableness of coverage was significantly more negative in all three newspapers during the nine-month period (NYT: _2 = 15.963, p<. 001; WPOST: _2 =49.864, p<. 000; LAT: _2 = 32.598, p<. 000). H1 is not rejected.

Table 1
Frequencies comparison by rank of topics of negative
topics in NYT, WPOST, and LAT

Topics
NYT
WPOST
NYT
LAT
WPOST
LAT
PRC domestic politics
Taiwan Straits issue
International politics
Domestic economy
International economics
Defense/Nuclear weapons
Disasters/unrest/terrorism
Culture
Science/ecology/technology
Religion
Law/Crimes/Corruption
Population
Sports
Social service/welfare/edu
N=
1.0
8.0
4.5
9.0
4.5
7.0
2.0
6.0
10.0
11.5
3.0
13.5
13.5
11.5
76
1.0
11.5
5.0
14.0
8.5
3.0
5.0
7.0
8.5
5.0
2.0
11.5
11.5
11.5
78
1.0
8.0
4.5
9.0
4.5
7.0
2.0
6.0
10.0
11.5
3.0
13.5
13.5
11.5
76
2.0
13.5
5.0
10.5
13.5
6.0
1.0
7.0
10.5
4.0
3.0
10.5
10.5
8.0
81
1.0
11.5
5.0
14.0
8.5
3.0
5.0
7.0
8.5
5.0
2.0
11.5
11.5
11.5
78
2.0
13.5
5.0
10.5
13.5
6.0
1.0
7.0
10.5
4.0
3.0
10.5
10.5
8.0
81
Between paper correlation                .702**                       .540*                       .801**
(Spearman rho)
NYT=New York Times; WPOST=Washington Post; and LAT=Los Angeles Times
**. Correlation is significant at the .01 level (2-tailed).
*. Correlation is significant at the .05 level (2-tailed).
Note: The categories are breakdown of the broader categories that are used in logistic regression model.

Table 1 shows that there is a very similar pattern among the three newspapers in their selecting stories of negative valence (NYT & WPOST: rho=. 702**, p<.01; NYT & LAT: rho=.540*, p<.05; WPOST & LAT: rho=.801**, p<.01). Moreover, a frequencies comparison by rank of theme between NYT and WPOST is .633*, p<. 015. The papers are found to be homogeneous in selecting negative stories about China.

Disparity and changes in negative topic categories
Logistic regression models are significant for all three newspapers (NYT: _2 = 43.774; WPOST: _2 = 55.357; LAT: _2 = 78.523).

Table 2
Logistic regression coefficients for the logged
odds of negativity of topic categories in the newspapers



Papers

NYT

WPOST

LAT

B
Sig.
Exp (B)
B
Sig.
Exp (B)
B
Sig.
Exp (B)
SCI/CUL
1.021**
.048
2.775
2.415**
.003
11.194
2.699**
.012
14.860
SOC/LAW
2.863**
.000
17.516
4.031**
.000
56.323
5.063**
.000
158.133
POLITICS
1.736**
.000
5.675
3.585**
.000
36.057
3.960**
.000
52.434
DEFENSE
1.082**
.041
2.952
1.630**
.047
5.102
2.334**
.039
10.316
TIMEINT
-.641
.241
1.375
.146
.070
.864
-1.670**
.002
.188
TIMEAFT
-.1.151**
.002
.316
.326
.620
1.197
-.029
.942
.971
Constant
-1.315
.001
.141
-2.767
.002
.073
-3.237
.002
.007
Model Chi-Square
43.774**
.000
55.357**
.000
78.523**
.000
-2 Log Likelihood
236.415
177.926
185.115

Note: Variables entered in the logistic regression models are: science/culture (SCI/CUL), society/law (SOC/LAW), politics (POLITICS), defense/war crisis (DEFENSE), and time (TIMEINT and TIME AFT), with economic topic category and time before intervention excluded as comparison groups


With economic topic category being excluded as comparison group, the other four topic categories are invariably more negative than economic categories, as was shown by the odds ratio Exp  (B). Meanwhile, the three newspapers showed different patterns in balancing negative topic categories. The tensions between topic categories are the least in NYT, and the most in LAT (See Figure 1). This is consistent with the finding that _2 comparing the amount of negative and non-negative stories is the least in NYT.


Figure 1 showed the patterns the three newspapers balanced negative topic categories. As can be seen, the SOCI/LAW topic category is most likely to be negative in all three newspapers, compared to economic categories. The POLITICS category is the second most likely negative topic category, and the DEFENSE category is the least. Again this indicated consonance between the newspapers. At the same time, the tensions between different topic categories were the largest for LAT, and the least for NYT, as was demonstrated by the difference of odds ration Exp(B) of the same topic category in the row in Table 2, or the vertical distances between different topic categories in Figure 1.





Time was a significant factor predicting negativity of coverage. As was shown in Table 2, with the time before intervention excluded as comparison group, the coverage after intervention (TIMEAFT) was less likely to be negative for NYT, and coverage during intervention (TIMEINT) was significantly less likely to be negative for LAT. H2 is rejected for NYT, and H3 rejected for LAT.


Effects of media events upon coverage

As was noted, the three events, the Congressional voting of China trade bill, the ending of Wen Ho Lee case, and China's public relations campaign, occurred at the same time and were directly related to the country in a positive manner. They all received wide coverage in the major newspapers. In the NYT, fifteen stories were found to be directly relevant to China's campaign. In the same paper, using "Wen Ho Lee" and "China" together as keywords to search in Lexis-Nexis database, 47 stories were found in the month. Using "China" and "trade," 123 stories were found, and the frequency of the keyword "China" was 482 times in September, which is much higher than any other months in 2000.

Most of the articles about China's campaign put the country in a favorable light. For example, one wrote that the "touring cultural extravaganza intended to introduce Americans to China" would likely help "at least somewhat to humanize a country that is frequently demonized in the American psyche as a colorless land of fear and forced abortions." It noted that "day-to-day life here (in China) no longer has a repressive feel for most Chinese. Its cities are diverse, bustling places filled with Internet caf‚s, fashionably dressed women, youths with punk attire and neon hair, and opinionated cabdrivers eager to tick off the Communist Party's foibles"(New York Times, August 23, 2000). An interview with Mr. Den Pufang, chairman of China's Disabled Persons Federation and son of the late Chinese leader Den Xiaoping, depicted how he was savaged by the Red Guards to become disabled in the Great Cultural Revolution in 1960's but still strived to create a "humanitarian environment" for the d
isabled in China.

It wrote that "[N]ow Mr. Deng is in the United States on a six-city tour with 39 members of the China Disabled People's Performing Arts Troupe, whose dazzling performances, including one on Monday night at Carnegie Hall, are proof that in China today, being blind, deaf, mentally retarded or confined to a wheelchair is no barrier to artistic self-realization." It further paralleled Mr. Deng's heartrending experiences and his unwavering cause with that of his nation's changing fate, concluding that "the concerted drive to improve life for the disabled coincided with his father's policy of economic reform, which has produced a sharp rise in living standards in China" (New York Times, September 18, 2000). Another interview with the Chinese culture minister who together with information office of China state council organized the campaign, reported that the emergence of a global culture in China "wears many faces. On the one hand, moviegoers in Beijing can swoon at screenings of 'Titan
ic.' On the other, computer jockeys in Shanghai might surf Web sites that carry 'unhealthy' material," which stressed the ongoing opening of the Chinese society (New York Times, September 8, 2000). Although NYT also carried in its Op-ed such articles like "The dysfunctional China's public relations barrage," the theme in the stories was generally positive.

In addition, it was found that coverage of the Congressional debate and voting over China trade bill stressed the lucrative booming market in China and opportunities for U.S. companies. For example, one story depicted China as a "growing economic powerhouse that is about to enter the World Trade Organization" (NYT, September 6, 2000); another discussed the U.S. airlines' competition over China (NYT, September 15, 2000). Finally, the effect of the Wen Ho Lee case upon media was well shown in the NYT's "The Times and Wen Ho Lee," a 1663-word-long self-reflective editorial note. Although it is hard to find solid evidence that reduction of negative coverage was related to the ending of the legal case, it is reasonable to infer that the outcome of the case could have affected editing of negative stories of China, because it was directly related to China and the NYT was widely criticized for its role in the legal case. In summary, although it is impossible to attribute the decrease of negative coverage precisely to anyone of the three events, the circumstantial evidence showed that they might have affected the media coverage in a cumulative way. Of course, such effects were ephemeral, and bounced back quickly in LAT.

Discussions

This research examined three issues, including media consonance, media disparity and intervention effects upon media coverage. The results supported past research on media consonance by finding that negative coverage of China was significantly more positive, neutral or balanced in all of the three newspapers. The major newspapers prioritize negative topic categories in a consonant pattern, with social and legal issues being the most likely negative topics, and politic topics the second, science/culture topics the third, and defense/war crisis topics the fourth, compared to economics topic categories. It is argued that this is basically an objective reflection of the drastically transforming Chinese society, where numerous social conflicts and crises have occurred in recent years in the lieu of transformation from planned economy to a free market economy under the guidance of the authoritarian communist government. In this sense, the argument by the U.S. journalists that their cove
rage of China is objective is largely justified. However, such coverage is incomplete, partially due to the decreasing international coverage in U.S. press, and its consequence may not be constructive. The readers may form a negative image of the country as the function of cultivation and agenda setting by the mass media. This is perhaps why the Chinese government worried about its image in the U.S. media, because public opinion was found to contribute to the U.S. foreign policy decision-making.

The contrast between the two statistic methods, frequency rank, correlations and logistic regression, in revealing consonance and disparity in message structure can be found in Table 1 and Table 2. Table 1 showed consonance pattern between the three papers, but their disparity was not clear at all, though there certainly was. In Table 2, the logistic regression models clearly and precisely revealed both consonance and disparity between the newspapers, and the measurement was improved from nominal and ordinal scales to ratio scale. The patterns of negative topics selection in the three newspapers were also revealed in Figure 1, with NYT being the best balanced and LAT the least balanced.

Finally, although it is impossible to establish a definite causality between the media events and the decrease of negative coverage merely through a content analysis, the circumstantial evidence that they had some effects is strong.  The extensive coverage by the NYT of all three events, their favorable themes toward China and the direct responsibility of NYT for the Wen Ho Lee case altogether indicated that one or all of the three events had effects upon media coverage of China.

Conclusion
In conclusion, the major contribution of the research is that it improved measurement from nominal and ordinal scales to ratio scale in examining the dynamics between different topic categories. The three major U.S. newspapers showed similar pattern in selecting negative topics about China, and were different in balancing the tensions between the topic categories. The findings on one hand supported past research on media consonance, and on the other, furthered media content research by clearly revealing disparity of topic structure between newspapers. The three media events appeared to have effects upon media coverage, though it is hard to attribute the effects precisely to any one of the three events. This research contributed to media content research by refining research methods and furthering consonance research scope.

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