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Prestige Press Coverage of Sino-American Relations From the Cold War's Demise to the Post-Cold War Period: Reagan's Final Years to the Clinton Administration 1985 to 1993 Introduction Throughout most of the Cold War, many scholars argued that the media left Sino-American policy up to each Cold War administration and its experts (Chang, 1986, 1993). Such scholars argue that the press, instead of performing its watchdog function of critiquing each administration's China policy and objectives, simply played the role of government "guard dog" (Donohue, Tichenor & Olien, 1995). Since throughout the Cold War world peace and much economic prosperity have hinged on Chinese stability and cooperative Sino-American relations, professional journalists argue that such international relationships have been too important to leave to government experts (Heuvel, 1993; Hadar, 1994). Although scholars tend to agree that during the Cold War news coverage generally lacked government-independent characteristics, the few available research articles focusing on news coverage during and after the Cold War's break up indicate significant government-independent characteristics (Cheng, 1993; Huang, 1994; Goodman, 1994). With the Cold War's demise came the first evidence that a more independent press might rise from the rubble. This evidence was discovered in studies focusing on press coverage of the spring 1989 Tiananmen Square democratic uprisings and resulting government crackdown (Cheng, 1993; Wang, 1992). Cheng and Wang found that press coverage of Tiananmen Square was predominantly government-independent. The 1989 Tiananmen Square democratic movement, combined with the dramatic collapse of many communist regimes throughout Eastern Europe, helped set off strong democratic waves that toppled the Berlin Wall and the former Soviet Union and marked the beginning of the end of the global Cold War (Cherrington, 1991; Horvat and Szanto, 1993). Ever since the Cold War's break up many media professionals have been claiming that post-Cold War news coverage possesses more government-independent characteristics than its Cold War counterpart (Hadar, 1994; Heuvel, 1993). These media professionals describe a brave new world emerging from the rubble of Prestige Press Coverage communism, a new, freer world that has been unraveling so quickly that the government and press are simultaneously grappling to make sense of it all. Many media professionals also argue that the press is rising to the occasion by forging ahead with its own coverage of this new political existence. They claim that unlike their traditional Cold War predecessors, who often relied too heavily on the government's paradigm of the world, these new era journalists are making up their own minds about American relations with other countries and covering the news accordingly. Although the view that post-Cold War journalists are more self-reliant and less government dependent than their traditional Cold War predecessors is widely supported among media professionals, after an exhaustive literature review this researcher only found one empirical study partially supporting this claim. This study just happens to be Sino-American related and deals with the 1989 Tiananmen Square ordeal both before and after the government crackdown (Huang, 1994). In hopes of filling this wide research gap, this study will investigate whether professional media claims of government-independent post-Cold War coverage is supported by empirical research. Literature Review Cold War Time Frames Since the exact timing of when the Cold War ceased to exist is hotly debated in history, political science and communication scholarly publications, this researcher was forced to at least temporarily settle this controversy in order to determine which Sino-American coverage should be considered post-Cold War. After reviewing more than 100 such articles, this time frame question was settled by determining the two main time frames that most scholars agreed marked the Cold War's end and applying them to this study. These scholars argued that the Cold War officially ended with one of two major events: the destruction of the Berlin Wall (November 9, 1989) or the fall of the Soviet Union (December 8, 1991) and/or Gorbachev's resignation (December 25, 1991) (Rupieper, 1990; Steel, 1992; Zagoria, 1991; Hill, 1993; Garthoff, 1992; Talbott, 1991/92; Marshall, 1992; Mandelbaum, 1990/91; Sullivan, 1992; Lampton, 1991). Prestige Press Coverage Since the Cold War did not just suddenly end on a given date -- over several years a string of often turbulent and unpredictable events brought the Cold War crashing down --, this study will consider the official "end" of the Cold War a finale of events, not a singular episode. Accordingly, all Sino-American issues or events occurring from November 10, 1989, to December 24, 1991, will belong to a transitional period. Only Sino-American press coverage published beginning on December 26, 1991, up until the present will belong to the post-Cold War period. According to the above two scenarios, the Cold War began wrapping up as early as the Berlin Wall's collapse in November of 1989. However, research indicates that Sino-American press coverage demonstrated government-independent characteristics at least six months earlier, during the spring 1989 Tiananmen Square democratic movement and subsequent government crackdown. Since the Cold War did not begin unraveling overnight, the Tiananmen example of independent coverage leads to the following question: Does independent Tiananmen Square coverage before the Cold War's break up represent some type of crisis-related fluke, or did Sino-American press coverage take on independent characteristics as early as when the Cold War first began to crumble? If Tiananmen Square and possibly even earlier coverage is found to be more independent due to a collapsing Cold War paradigm, this information would help support journalists' claims that post-Cold War coverage has been more government independent than its Cold War predecessor's. Accordingly, this study will not only focus directly on Sino-American transitional and post-Cold War coverage, but on what it will call Sino-American "Cold War demise" coverage, coverage of Sino-American relations as early as when the Cold War paradigm first began to unravel. In order not to miss the first signs of the Cold War's collapse, this study will begin examining coverage of Sino-American relations when Chang's (1986) premier study of the Cold War's impact on Sino-American coverage ends, on January 1, 1985, at the beginning of President Reagan's second term. The Cold War's Aftermath: Sino-American Coverage This study will examine the past decade's prestige press coverage of Sino-American relations from the Prestige Press Coverage Cold War's demise through the transitional and post-Cold War eras and will compare it to corresponding government coverage in order to determine the government's possible impact on press coverage. Accordingly, this study will update what is considered to be one of the longest running longitudinal analyses of press coverage of a foreign policy issue: Chang's (1986) renowned study of prestige press coverage of Sino-American relations during 35 years of the Cold War era. This present study will then compare the degree of government independence found in press coverage during the Cold War's collapse through the post-Cold War era to its Cold War counterpart. In this manner, this study will shed light on its main inquiry: Is Cold War demise to post-Cold War Sino-American press coverage more government independent than its Cold War predecessor? This researcher expects this study to be the first of its kind to determine that Sino-American press coverage from the Cold War's demise through the post-Cold War period was more government independent than its Cold War predecessor. After all, ever since the global Cold War containment paradigm began crumbling during the Cold War's demise, each administration has appeared unable or unwilling to substitute the outdated Cold War paradigm with an adequate replacement. And, as pre-Cold War Sino-American press coverage suggests, administrations that are unable or unwilling to provide journalists with a clear-cut, credible paradigm of foreign relations tend to have a limited impact on such coverage (Liebovich, 1988; Bibber, 1969). This researcher assumes that an apparent lack of government direction in helping journalists make sense of Sino-American relations after the Cold War's collapse has most likely forced journalists to become more self-reliant, to interpret events for themselves. As a result, Cold War demise through post-Cold War journalists probably covered Sino-American relations in a more successful watch-dog, independent fashion than their Cold War counterparts. This researcher also expects to find that press coverage was most government independent during the Cold War's initial demise, second most government independent during this study's Cold War transitional period and least government independent during the post-Cold War period. The possibly more government Prestige Press Coverage independent coverage during the Cold War's demise and transitional periods could be largely attributed to the initial shock waves dispersed by the global community's first recognition of a suddenly approaching new world order. In addition, post-Cold War coverage may be less government-independent due to much less dramatic attention to the global Cold War's collapse and especially positive Clinton administration press-government relations. Agenda-Setting Theory The press and administration attempt to gain each other's attention and influence each other's views via agenda setting (Rogers and Dearing, 1988). Many studies have found a consistent correlation between media issue coverage and subsequent audience issue salience (Kraus and Davis, 1976; McCombs, 1983; Rogers and Dearing, 1988). The more the media focuses on certain issues, the more likely they are to transfer priority items from their agenda to other agendas, such as the public's and government's. In addition, the more the media focuses on favored topics, the more likely it is to affect its audience's views on such topics. As McCombs and Shaw (1993) explain: Bernard Cohen's [1963] classic summation of agenda setting -- the media may not tell us what to think, but they are stunningly successful in telling us what to think about -- has been turned inside out. New research exploring the consequences of agenda setting ... suggest that the media not only tell us what to think about, but also how to think about it, and, consequently, what to think" (p. 58). Stories considered most important by journalists are emphasized by salience cues. Traditional salience cues are created by the manipulation of design elements, such as story placement, story length and issue frequency (Baskette, Sissors & Brooks, 1982). Newspaper readers are not only more likely to read stories emphasized via salience cues, but are more likely to consider issues emphasized with salience cues as the day's most important issues (McCombs and Shaw, 1972; McCombs, 1983; Eyal, Winter & DeGeorge, 1981). Researchers have found that the following salience cues are accurate approximations of the importance newspapers assign to given stories and issues: individual story length and combined story lengths overtime and the number of times a source, channel or subject is mentioned in each story and over time (Chang, 1986; Rogers and Dearing, 1988). Researchers have also found that articles often contain strong underlying contexts Prestige Press Coverage or conditions and views that can also act as important salience cues. Many of these less traditional salience cues, contexts or conditions such as crisis, conflict, deviance, violence or even attitude, are common in international news coverage in general and Sino-American coverage specifically. Press vs. Administration: Who Sets Whose Agenda? The prestige press has long been recognized as an essential component in the U.S. foreign policy-making process (Nimmo, 1979). However, researchers say it remains unclear how and to what degree the news media are able to influence and/or set the government's foreign policy agenda and vice versa (Nimmo, 1979; Bennett, 1980). While many scholars argue that in the foreign policy arena the press acts as an "independent agent," it critically assesses and challenges government policy and yields substantial agenda-setting influence over the government (e.g., Becker, 1977; Ramaprasad and Riffe, 1987; Lefever, 1974), other scholars argue the opposite: The press is nothing more than an "agent of power" that either consciously or subconsciously plays into dominant American cultural and socio-economic values by supporting government policies and allowing the government to set its agenda (Altschull, 1985; Gitlin, 1980; Hallin, 1987; Tuchman, 1974). In between these two perspectives are many foreign-policy related conceptual models that attempt to explain how the press affects the government's agenda and vice versa (e.g., Chang, 1993; Allison, 1971; Berry, 1990; Cioffi-Revilla, Merritt & Zines, 1987; Cohen, 1963). Of these models, Allison's (1971) model is perhaps most inclusive. Allison's governmental politics model is based on Hilsman's (1967) view, illustrated via four concentric circles, that while the government possesses predominant power in foreign policy making, the press maintains a less powerful yet significant ad hoc role in the process. Although Allison fails to explain in his model how successful the press is at influencing foreign policy makers and vice versa, Cohen (1963), who equates the agenda-setting influence of journalists and lower level bureaucrats in the foreign policy-making process, suggests that the press is often quite successful in this venture. He argues that although the press obviously does not have the authority to make official foreign Prestige Press Coverage policy decisions, by focusing government and public attention on aspects of foreign policy most important, its influence is at times strong enough to set the government's foreign policy agenda. Agenda-Setting Literature Since the President is the country's key foreign policy maker and the State Department is technically in charge of maintaining foreign policy, the government possesses the constitutional and inside-knowledge advantage in influencing foreign policy making. Accordingly, it is not surprising that the President and State Department often set the press' foreign policy agenda (Berry, 1990; Nimmo, 1979; Bennett, 1980; McCombs and Shaw, 1972; Dumbrell, 1990; Hilsman, 1971; Lin, 1985). However, although the government seems to more consistently set the press' agenda than vice versa, the press has also demonstrated its ability to set the government's foreign policy agenda by criticizing and/or challenging its policies (e.g., Becker, 1977; Ramaprasad and Riffe, 1987; Lefever, 1974). The Cold War's Collapse -- Did it Empower the Press? Once the government's Cold War paradigm began to crumble, did the press become more resistent to the government's Sino-American agenda-setting influence? Although more research is needed on this topic, the few studies available on it hint that it did. Although many researchers claim that Cold War administrations had been especially successful at setting the agenda for Sino-American policy coverage (e.g., Chang, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989), evidence of government agenda setting in Cold War demise, transitional and post-Cold War Sino-American press coverage is limited (Liebovich, 1988; Hohenberg, 1968; Bibber, 1969; Goodman, 1994). The apparently limited agenda-setting abilities of Cold War demise, transitional and post-Cold War administrations to influence U.S.-China press coverage may be best explained by each era's either deteriorating or non-existent government paradigm of Sino-American relations (Heuvel, 1993). The absence of a comprehensive, workable strategic framework operating as a foundation for Sino-American policy may have encouraged journalists to make more independent assessments of U.S.-China policy. Throughout this Prestige Press Coverage study, government-independent press coverage is defined as coverage that does not support and/or reflect Sino-American policy. A lack of support and/or reflection of Sino-American policy is illustrated by either criticism of Sino-American policy, limited or non-existent coverage of official Sino-American statements and/or activities, press coverage portraying or interpreting official Sino-American policy in a significantly different manner than the government, and/or press coverage focusing on different issues than the government. The above literature review suggested the following three research questions: (1) If Sino-American policy coverage is found to be more government independent in one Cold War time frame than another, when did more independent press coverage begin emerging? As early as the Cold War demise period, during the transitional period or the post-Cold War period? (2) If Sino-American policy is covered more independently in one Cold War time frame than another, is this more government-independent press coverage free of government agenda setting and/or did more government-independent press coverage influence the government's agenda? (3) How did the amount and nature of more government-independent press coverage compare among the Cold War demise, transitional and post-Cold War eras? Method Content analysis was conducted in a predominantly identical manner on two prestige press newspapers, the New York Times and the Washington Post, and three publications/records of U.S. administration documents, the Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States and the U.S. Department of State Bulletin/Dispatch. All New York Times and Washington Post front-page news, news, features and editorials focusing on Sino-American relations were included in this study. A combined total of 1,177 press articles, 647 New York Times and 530 Washington Post articles, were analyzed. The New York Times and Washington Post were chosen for this study since they are widely read by policy makers and for their significant influence on international politics (Cohen, 1963). All government articles dealing with any aspect of Sino-American relations were included in this study. A combined total of 399 government articles, 156 presidential articles and 243 State Department articles, were analyzed. The three government publications were chosen since they consistently covered American foreign policy throughout the study's time frame, and they represent the best available historical record of official government foreign policy issues. Prestige Press Coverage Newspaper and government articles dealing with Sino-American relations, not China domestic issues (such as earthquakes and unrelated Chinese domestic politics), were included in this study. Sino-American relations stories were defined as those dealing with any aspect of Sino-American affairs or interactions -- such as diplomatic and defense activities, cultural exchanges and general relations --, and/or American actions or comments regarding China or vice versa. This study covered nearly 10 years of Sino-American relations coverage beginning on January 1, 1985, with President Reagan's second term of office, and ending December 31, 1993, after President Clinton's first year of office. This study picked up where Chang's (1986) Cold War Sino-American press coverage research left off and it ended with the most up-to-date material available when data collection took place. As explained in the literature review, this study examined press and government coverage in three Cold War periods: Cold War demise (January 1, 1985 to November 8, 1989), transitional (November 10, 1989 to December 24, 1991) and post-Cold War (December 26, 1991 to December 31, 1993). In this study, the units of analysis were defined on two levels: via each newspaper and government article and each month of press and government analysis. Newspaper and government articles were analyzed in a nearly identical fashion for comparison's sake. For example, variables such as source and channel usage, deviation, violence, crisis, conflict, attitude toward Sino-American relations and perception of China were analyzed in a similar fashion in order to make news versus government comparisons possible. Newspaper and government article variables coded in the same month were separately aggregated. Means were then calculated for each of these aggregated variables, and the resulting aggregated means were used to facilitate newspaper versus government variable comparisons. The monthly time frame was chosen since, according to many scholars, 30 days is the optimal time frame needed for one entity to influence the other's agenda (Gilberg, Eyal, McCombs & Nicholas, 1980; Chang, 1989). Newspaper variables were compared to government variables on a lagged monthly basis in order to determine whether newspapers set the government's agenda or vice versa. Prestige Press Coverage The coding instrument used categories tested by previous research along with those suggested by the literature review (Chang, 1986). A primary coder and an independent coder analyzed this study's data. Ten percent of the study's 1,576 articles were coded for reliability test purposes and analyzed via Scott's pi. Intercoder percent of agreement ranged from 86% to 100% with an average agreement of 92%, while intracoder percent of agreement ranged from 90% to 100% with an average agreement of 96%. While the strongest reliability scores were recorded for variables such as subjects, sources, non-administration attitude, description of China, conflict and U.S. norms deviance, more moderate but still strong reliability scores were recorded for variables such as channels, China status quo deviance, crisis, attitude toward Sino-American relations and violence. Data were coded onto scantron sheets and transferred onto computer discs for SPSS analysis. In order to answer all of this study's research questions, SPSS analysis ranged in complexity from simple frequency distributions to time series analysis. In order to compare means over time, this study's time series analysis aggregated each variable over a relative time frame, calculated the means for each aggregated variable and used the resulting aggregated means, representing newspaper versus government variables, in order to facilitate comparisons over time. Pearson r-squared statistics and regression analysis were then run on these aggregated means in order to determine the strength and nature of relative correlations. Correlations closest to zero are considered weakest, while those closest to 1 or -1 are considered strongest. Correlations were deemed statistically significant if they produced a T-value greater than 1.96 or less than -1.96 and a probability score less than .05. Since this study operated on the premise that it would take at least one month before agenda-setting effects took place, a given month of press coverage was generally compared to the next month's government coverage and vice versa. In the first scenario if a significant correlation was found between press and government coverage, the press appeared to set the government's agenda. In the second scenario a significant correlation would suggest that, vice versa, the government set the press' agenda. If as a result of either Prestige Press Coverage scenario no significant correlation was found, then the press did not influence the government's agenda or vice versa. And finally, if significant correlations are not normally appearing during the above one-month lagging procedure, but when identical months of press and government coverage are compared they result in significant correlations, a third factor, such as breaking international events, may be setting both the press and government agenda. Finally, since control of extraneous variables is beyond this study's scope, causal relationship tests between the variables were exploratory. Accordingly, interpretations of these findings will be made with caution. Preliminary Findings Preliminary content analysis subject findings are briefly discussed in this section in order to offer a general overview of this data before research questions are answered. Subjects During this nine-year study (1985 to 1993), the prestige press drew attention to many Sino-American topics, ranging from military affairs to the pro-democracy Tiananmen Square ordeal. From the Cold War's demise through the post-Cold War period, Sino-American press coverage predominantly grew steadily, with the exception of a dramatic upward spike largely due to Tiananmen Square coverage. This spike in coverage began with the 1988 democratic incidents that led to the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement, culminated with the 1989 Tiananmen Square government crackdown and rapidly dropped during the post-Tiananmen Square period. However, in the Tiananmen Square aftermath the amount of overall Sino-American coverage did not rapidly decline to pre-Tiananmen coverage levels. After the Tiananmen Square government crackdown, most topics, with the exception of Tiananmen Square itself, were covered more heavily than before the Tiananmen Square democratic protests began. In addition, coverage of these topics mostly remained consistently higher after the Tiananmen Square government crackdown than before it (see figure 1, p. 12). Prestige Press Coverage During the Tiananmen Square ordeal, all but one major Sino-American subject received the heaviest coverage: immigration. Immigration issue coverage spiked up after the Tiananmen Square incident mostly due to Tiananmen Square activists seeking political asylum in America. According to agenda-setting theory, topics receiving the heaviest coverage have not only drawn the most press attention, but have influenced the press to consider such topics among the most important in Sino-American relations. Throughout this study the press' most consistently predominant topics, in order of heaviest to lightest press coverage, consisted of military affairs, diplomacy, human rights, MFN, economy/business and Tiananmen Square. In addition, Chinese immigration to America was the heaviest covered topic during both the transitional and post-Cold War time frames -- especially the latter. Even though the 1989 Tiananmen Square ordeal was viewed as an extremely important Sino-American development, in the larger scheme of Sino-American relations military affairs were most often emphasized by the press from 1985 through 1990, while immigration was most emphasized from 1992 to 1993. Findings and Discussion This section reviews each specific research question and its findings. 1) If Sino-American policy coverage is found to be more government independent in one Cold War time frame than another, when did more independent press coverage begin emerging? As early as the Cold War demise period, during the transitional period or the post-Cold War period? Research question #1 focused on determining during which time frame press coverage was most government independent. First, it found that press coverage was most government independent during the Cold War's demise. Cold War demise press coverage differed from government coverage in a significant manner (a minimum tau-c of .10 or -.10, a t-score greater than 1.96 or less than -1.96 and a probability value less than .05) via all of the following nine variables: China status quo deviance, U.S. norms deviance, crisis, clarity of conflict, violence, American non-administration attitude toward U.S-China relations, China description, economic change (see table 1, p. 14) and story length (Tau-c=-.38;T=-9.89). Second, it also found that press coverage appears to grow less independent as time goes on. This significant finding is best Prestige Press Coverage illustrated by the following two variables: China status quo deviance and China descriptions. During the Cold War's demise, the press and government demonstrate the most significant disagreement on the extent to which certain issues represent a threat to China's status quo and whether they view the Chinese government in a more positive, negative or neutral light. From the Cold War's demise through the post-Cold War period the degree of government versus press disagreement between China status quo and China description significantly decreases. Since the press and government disagree most on these issues during the Cold War's demise and disagree least on these issues during the post-Cold War era, press coverage appears to grow less independent overtime. As for Cold War demise press coverage being most independent, transitional coverage being second most independent and post-Cold War coverage being least independent, the significant differences between press and government perceptions toward China status quo threats and the Chinese government itself (measured by the China description variable) support this finding. For example, during the Cold War demise period 28.1% of press articles indicated there was a great threat to China's status quo versus 8.3% of government articles (tau-c=-.26;t=-8.74); compared to 18.5% of press articles to 3.5% of government articles in the transitional period (tau-c=-.10;t=-3.71); and 8% of press articles and zero government articles in the post-Cold War period (tau-c=-.13;t=-5.42). In addition, during the Cold War demise period 7% of press articles gave positive descriptions of China (Chinese government) versus 33% of government articles (tau-c=.3;t=9); compared to 8% of press articles to 30% of government articles in the transitional period (tau-c=.18;t=5.51). By the post-Cold War period, significant relationships between press and government descriptions disappeared -- 17% of press articles gave positive descriptions of China versus 19.4% of government articles (tau-c=.06;t=1.2). 2) If Sino-American policy is covered more independently in one Cold War time frame than another, is this more government-independent press coverage free of government agenda setting and/or did more government-independent press coverage influence the government's agenda? Research question #2 dealt with whether the press set the government's agenda or vice versa. Since Prestige Press Coverage agenda-setting literature claims it takes one month for one entity to set another's agenda, this question was answered by using time series analysis to compare each month of government coverage to press coverage one month later and vice versa. Throughout this study's Cold War time frames, when press variables were compared to identical government variables one month later, no significant relationships resulted. Accordingly, this analysis determined that neither the press nor the government set each other's agenda during any of this study's Cold War time frames. However, when government and press coverage were considered during identical months throughout different Cold War time frames, this coverage was often significantly correlated. In other words, the government and press not only appeared to focus on many of the same issues at the same time, but also covered many of these issues in a similar manner. This finding may suggest that breaking Sino-American events set both the government and press agenda. Cold War Demise Period Although during the Cold War demise era neither the government nor the press set each other's agenda, in many instances the two entities' opinions and stances were significantly and positively correlated. In other words, the government and press not only seemed to emphasize Sino-American coverage during the same monthly time frames, they also tended to focus on many of the same issues at the same time. This finding was determined by comparing government and press coverage variables during identical months. Examples of these significant results are represented by the following five variables: democratic mentions (r-squared=.714;t=13.53); Tiananmen Square coverage (r-squared =.774;t=16.63); amount of paragraphs (r-squared= .297;t=5.18); amount of articles (r-squared=.31;t=4.64) and human rights coverage (r-squared=.149;t=3.11). All of the above relationships were deemed statistically significant due to t-scores greater than 1.96 or less than -1.96 and p-values less than .05. Simply put, the press and government tended to emphasize, during the same monthly time frames, the following: democratic mentions, Tiananmen Square coverage, human rights coverage and overall Sino-American coverage (according to the amount of paragraphs and amount of articles variables). Although this Prestige Press Coverage study was not set up to determine which, if any, third party set both the government's and press' agenda, these results suggest that breaking Sino-American news may have set both the press and government agendas. Transitional Coverage The press' tendency to maintain some degree of independence from government influence by side-stepping government agenda setting was also evident during the transitional era. As in the Cold War demise period, transitional period press coverage did not appear to influence the government's agenda or vice versa. However, as was also indicated in the Cold War demise period, that did not mean that the press and government never shared similar views and stances during the transitional period. On the contrary, examples of shared, similar perspectives are demonstrated by significant correlations demonstrated by the following two variables: amount of Tiananmen Square coverage and China description, specifically the tendency to describe the Chinese government in a negative fashion. When press and government coverage during this time frame were compared on an identical month-by-month basis, the press' and government's respective focus on Tiananmen coverage was strongly correlated (r-squared=.774;t=3.71). In addition, every negative press description of the Chinese government was accompanied by .39 of a negative government description (r-squared=.29;t=2.68). In other words, for approximately every two and one-quarter times the press described the Chinese government in a negative fashion, the government followed suit once. 3) How did the amount and nature of more government-independent press coverage compare among the Cold War demise, transitional and post-Cold War eras? While research question #1 found that press coverage was most government independent during the Cold War's demise, second most government independent during the transitional period and least government independent during the post-Cold War period, research question #3 acknowledges that even though some Cold War time frames were more government independent than others, after the Cold War began to collapse all Cold War time frames possessed some degree of government-independent coverage. Accordingly, research question #3 tried to discover, via time series analysis and cross-tabulations, more about the amount and nature of government-independent coverage by placing it in the context of general news coverage being played up Prestige Press Coverage across all three Cold War eras. Cold War Demise Coverage For example, during the Cold War demise period the press tended to emphasize human rights issues and the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement and ordeal (see table 2, p. 19). According to agenda-setting theory the press emphasizes issues that are high on its agenda of priorities. Accordingly, during the Cold War demise period the press seemed especially concerned with these issues. This finding is not surprising since the press tends to view human rights abuses and Tiananmen Square as especially important concerns. In addition, since during the Cold War's demise the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement and crackdown took place -- on top of the more ordinary, common Sino-American human rights issues, such as forced abortion and Chinese government crackdowns on Tibet -- there were perhaps more human rights abuse issues to cover during this time frame than in other in this study. The finding that Cold War demise coverage concentrated on human rights issues and Tiananmen Square coverage is illustrated in the attached time series model (see table 2, p. 19). This significant finding is extremely strong (R-squared =.862). However, before the relevance of this finding for more government-independent Cold War demise coverage is discussed, the time series model itself should be understood. In this model, number of press articles, the dependent variable, was regressed on each of the following independent variables: human rights coverage, violence coverage, Tiananmen Square coverage, MFN coverage and U.S. norms deviance coverage. As a result, it was found that these variables explain 86% of the variation in the number of articles written across Cold War periods. This finding also indicated that the press' interest in these topics and type of coverage varied during different Cold War periods. In other words, 86% of the time when press coverage of these variables increased during specific Cold War periods, the overall amount of general Sino-American press coverage also increased during the same Cold War periods. Since none of the five variables prompted increased general coverage during all three Cold War periods, the attached model illustrates specifically which variables during which Cold War period/s tended to Prestige Press Coverage do so. In this model, all five variables are represented via Cold War period, and those Cold War periods in which each variable prompted increased overall coverage are starred and include betas and p-values. While the R-squared statistic measured the strength of the combined variables' impact on the amount of overall coverage, beta statistics are stated for each variable during the Cold War period/s in which the variable had a significant impact on overall coverage. The beta statistic measured the impact of each independent variable on the dependent variable. The beta statistic is defined as how many standard deviations the dependent variable moves for one standard deviation change in the independent variable. The p-value determines statistical significance if it is less than .05, if there is less than five chances in 100 that the given results occurred by chance. Although the model's five variables did not prompt increased general coverage during all Cold War time frames, the monthly means of the amount of stories dealing with each variable within each Cold War period are given in order to describe each variable's amount of story coverage over time. According to this time series model, Cold War demise coverage not only concentrated on human rights and Tiananmen Square coverage, but when such issues arose, Sino-American press coverage increased. Accordingly, it is reasonable to conclude that during this time period the press was especially concerned with covering these Sino-American topics. How do such press concerns during the Cold War demise period shed light on more independent coverage during this time frame? The press' special concern with human rights and Tiananmen Square seem to have driven its more government-independent coverage during the Cold War's demise. In question #1, nine variables illustrated the press' tendency during the Cold War's demise to cover the news in a more government-independent fashion. Six of these variables were covered in a predominantly negative fashion: China status quo deviance, U.S. norms deviance, crisis, clarity of conflict, violence and American non-administration attitudes toward Sino-American relations. In addition, Tiananmen Square coverage was covered in an especially negative fashion. Views toward China and Sino-American relations were much more negative during the Tiananmen Square incident. Prestige Press Coverage Predominantly negative views toward China regarding Tiananmen were supported by the following variables: conflict (Tau-c=.11;T=7.41); media attitude (Tau-c=-.19;T=-8.22), description (Tau-c=-.17;T=-7.58), China status quo deviance (Tau-c=.2;T=7.69), U.S. norms deviance (Tau-c=.15;T=6.13) and crisis (Tau-c=.23;T=8.88). Since the press' more government-independent coverage of Sino-American relations during this time frame echoes the press' special concern with human rights abuses and Tiananmen Square, it seems that more independent press coverage was driven by respectable press concerns. Transitional Coverage Transitional coverage did share its Cold War predecessor's concern for human rights. In addition, transitional coverage was concerned with U.S. norms deviance issues and the Most Favored Nation (MFN) controversy (see table 2, p. 19). Since the Tiananmen Square incident evokes all of the above transitional era concerns, and the negative impact of the Tiananmen Square ordeal was at least mentioned in most transitional stories, Tiananmen Square also seemed to remain a major concern for China reporters. For example, the Tiananmen Square ordeal was extremely inconsistent with U.S. norms, it represented a serious human rights abuse and it was one of the main reasons that Congress and many Americans fought feverishly, yet unsuccessfully, with President Bush to revoke China's MFN status. How do such press concerns during the transitional period shed light on government-independent coverage during this time frame? The press' special concern with U.S. norms deviance, human rights and MFN coverage seem to have driven its more government-independent coverage during the transitional period. This independent press coverage, described in research question #1, was illustrated by coverage of the following two variables in a predominantly negative fashion: China status quo deviance and descriptions of China. After all, a press interested in issues that deviate from U.S. norms should also be interested in issues that threaten China's status quo since they are often related. For example, the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement and crackdown both strongly deviated from U.S. norms and threatened the Chinese Prestige Press Coverage status quo by endangering the Chinese government's stability. In addition, general and MFN-related human rights concerns often led to negative coverage of the Chinese government during the transitional era. As was the case with press coverage during the Cold War's demise, transitional coverage seemed based on both newsworthy and respectable journalistic concerns. In addition, in both time frames Sino-American coverage tended to be predominantly negative. Post-Cold War Coverage Post-Cold War coverage, unlike its Cold War demise and transitional predecessors, did not emphasize Tiananmen Square or U.S. norms deviance coverage. However, post-Cold War journalists, like their transitional predecessors, did concern themselves with MFN coverage (see table 2, p. 19). In addition, post-Cold War press coverage tended to emphasize economic matters. Since during the post-Cold War period Sino-American trade was booming, and journalists tend to share basic American business values, it is not surprising that journalists became more concerned with business-related issues. At first glance it may seem as if post-Cold War journalists did not share their Cold War demise and transitional predecessors' concerns about topics such as the Tiananmen Square ordeal, human rights abuses and issues that deviate from U.S. norms and threaten the Chinese status quo. But since by the beginning of the post-Cold War era much debate over the Tiananmen Square issue had died down and human rights abuses were less prevalent than during the Cold War demise or transitional periods, the post-Cold War press should not have been expected to focus on concerns that were not as prevalent during the post-Cold War time frame. After all, the fact that the press seemed most concerned with the MFN issue during the post-Cold War era suggests that the press remained dedicated to human rights issues. Although the MFN issue is predominantly economic, the re-occurring controversy over renewing it in light of China's human rights record makes it a strong human rights issue as well. Did such press concerns during the post-Cold War period shed light on more government-independent coverage during this time frame? Research question #1 found that post-Cold War press articles covered Prestige Press Coverage Chinese status quo deviance in a statistically different manner than the government (tau-c=-.13;t=-5.42). Since the connection between post-Cold War reporters' concerns with economic and human rights issues and Chinese status quo deviance is not clear, these concerns did not appear to shed additional light on the post-Cold War era's limited government-independent coverage. However, post-Cold War period journalists' economic concerns do help describe post-Cold War coverage and its often limited government independence. For example, economic development is an area where journalists have expressed more positive attitudes toward U.S.-China relations than in other topics. However, in covering this technical subject journalists tend to rely on official sources and, in so doing, do not necessarily use more unofficial sources and channels. Since Sino-American relations experienced much less controversy during the post-Cold War era than in this study's previous two Cold War time frames, and the press seems to agree more with President Clinton's Sino-American policies than with either administration from these time frames, the post-Cold War press appears much less government independent than its Cold War demise and post-Cold War counterparts. The finding that the post-Cold War press has a tendency to cover economic development with a positive attitude is based on the following statistically significant cross-tab results. When economic change is covered, 54.2% of the time press attitudes toward Sino-American relations are positive, versus 19.2% positive coverage when economic change is not covered (tau-c=.24;t=4.26). Accordingly, in the post-Cold War era the press seems optimistic about the prospects of economic change. However, this does not mean that more government-independent economic coverage is a result of this concern. Since economic change is a technical subject, journalists rely less on unofficial channels for information on this subject and more on official channels and sources. When economic change is covered, the most unofficial channels (5 or more) are used 6% of the time versus 12% of the time when economic change is not covered (tau-c=-.10;t=-1.96). Finally, it would be misleading to conclude that since this study only found limited evidence of post- Prestige Press Coverage Cold War government-independent press coverage that post-Cold War Sino-American coverage was covered in an inferior manner compared to its Cold War demise and transitional predecessors. This study's post-Cold War era contained much less dramatic events than during either the Cold War demise or transitional eras. Accordingly, this study's limited post-Cold War events did not seem to give the post-Cold War press an equal opportunity to challenge government policy, let alone to establish much of a government-independent streak. Until post-Cold War journalists covering Sino-American relations are faced with more challenging issues, it remains to be seen just how government independent post-Cold War coverage may become. In the meanwhile, the post-Cold War press' concern with economic and human rights issues seems both professional and respectable. Conclusions This study's results can be summarized with two major findings. First, during the Cold War's collapse and post-Cold War years the press covered Sino-American policy in a more government-independent manner than its Cold War predecessor. And second, the press covered Sino-American relations during the Cold War's collapse and post-Cold War years in a culturally biased yet responsible, watch-dog fashion. This study's findings can also be interpreted on a broader scale, one that places this study into context with current, related communication literature. Accordingly, this study sheds additional light on the following two topics: the Cold War's collapse and Sino-American reporting and the amount of time necessary for the government to impact the press' agenda and vice versa. The Cold War's Collapse and Sino-American Reporting Did the Cold War's collapse affect the independence level of Sino-American reporting? This study suggests that it did. After all, Cold War collapse through post-Cold War coverage was more government independent than its Cold War predecessor. How did the Cold War's collapse lead to more independent coverage? As explained throughout this study's theory section, once the Cold War began to crumble and government administrations failed or were Prestige Press Coverage unwilling to substitute the Cold War paradigm with an adequate replacement, the press was forced to become less complacent. The Cold War's collapse seemed to act as the press' wake-up call. As the Cold War crumbled, the press seemed to begin realizing that the government was not doing an adequate job of developing Sino-American relations and making it understandable to the American public. Accordingly, in order for the press to fulfill its double duty of keeping the government on track and informing the public, it was forced to become more self-reliant, more actively involved in digging up Sino-American news and emphasizing its own views and the views of others on the meaning of Sino-American relations. Cold War time frames clearly had an impact on Sino-American coverage. In addition, this study suggests that a third factor/factors, such as real-life indicators, also influenced Sino-American coverage. The Time Gap: Its Impact on Agenda Setting Although much print journalism research suggests a one-month time frame is optimal for agenda setting to take place, the advent of the Internet, e-mail and instantaneous satellite hook-ups between the government and the press seem to question these previous findings. In today's computer-friendly, interactive world, a reporter needs nothing more than a computer, modem and telephone line to contact government leaders anywhere in the world at a moment's notice. Accordingly, if reporters and government officials are e-mailing each other on a daily basis, if the computer revolution is leading to substantially increased government and press communications, is it still safe to conclude that it takes an entire month for the government to influence the press' agenda and vice versa? In this present study when government Sino-American coverage was compared to Sino- American press coverage one month later and vice versa, the government did not appear to influence the press' Sino-American agenda and vice versa. In addition, this study also found that when government and press coverage were compared during identical monthly time frames, when no lagged comparisons took place, the government and press often covered Sino-American relations in a similar fashion. Accordingly, although comparing government to press coverage one month later and vice versa does not result in evidence of agenda Prestige Press Coverage setting, the fact that the government and press are often taking similar approaches to Sino-American relations during identical time frames suggests that both entities are experiencing agenda setting at the same time, whether it is the result of influencing each other's agenda on a quicker than monthly basis and/or the result of one or more third party influences on both entities' agendas. Third party influences might include real-world incidents affecting Sino-American relations such as the Tiananmen Square ordeal, third party influences that focus both the government's and press' attention on breaking Sino-American events at the same time. For example, during the Clinton administration press coverage was least government independent, government and press Sino-American agendas and attitudes appeared most similar. This increased similarity between government and press Sino-American views may have been partially due to increased government and press usage of e-mail and the Internet during this time frame. Perhaps less formal, increased computer contact may have at least partially led to improved, more friendly reporter-government relations and thus increased agreement between both entities on Sino-American policy. In addition, the fact that Sino-American economic growth tended to be highlighted by the press in a positive fashion throughout most of Clinton's post-Cold War era, a great turn-around from the predominantly negative press coverage of Sino-American relations during the Bush administration, suggests that both government and press contacts with the Chinese government were much more frequent and friendly during Clinton's administration than Bush's. Accordingly, friendlier press and government relations with the Chinese government may have made both entities susceptible to possible Chinese government agenda-setting influence. For example, when the Chinese government introduces a trade initiative or decision that would lead to increased and/or improved Sino-American trade, both the U.S. government and press may be more willing to consider such actions at face value than to search for ulterior motives. In addition, when the U.S. government and press both view real-life indicators as having a positive effect on Sino-American relations, such as Chinese government decisions to increase Sino-American trade, their agendas may be more easily, more quickly set by each other and the Chinese government due to Prestige Press Coverage friendlier relations not only with each other, but the Chinese government as well. After all, increased friendliness may lead to less agenda-setting resistance. Accordingly, during the Clinton administration the U.S. government, press and Chinese government, partially as a result of new technologies and substantially improved, positive Sino-American trade, may have all influenced each other's agenda within a much quicker time frame than a month. As a result, since a shorter than one month agenda-setting time frame would not have been detected in this study, it is possible that the agenda-setting influence of either the U.S. press or government may have been overlooked. This study contributes to the literature by suggesting that the amount of time in which it takes for the government to set the press' agenda and vice versa needs to be re-examined and updated to include the possibility of the impact of new technologies on the agenda-setting process. 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Please send submission inquiries and information to me at: 5 Valley View Court Apt# H5 Geneseo, NY 14454 Phone/fax: (716) 243-4813 E-mail: [log in to unmask] ABSTRACT PRESTIGE PRESS COVERAGE OF SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS FROM THE COLD WAR'S DEMISE TO THE POST-COLD WAR PERIOD: REAGAN'S FINAL YEAR TO THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION 1985-1993 This study examined whether Sino-American news coverage was more government independent after the Cold War's collapse than during the Cold War proper. Content analysis of 1,177 New York Times and Washington Post articles and 399 government articles were compared via descriptive statistics and time series analysis. The study concluded that Sino-American press coverage from the Cold War's demise through the post-Cold War era was more government independent than its Cold War predecessor. Code Book Prestige Press Coverage of Sino-American Relations 1. CODER -- your first name box (in box closest to middle name box)-- (1 column) Coder A = A Coder B = B 2. ARTICLE SECTION -- middle name box (1 column) Blank = no article section (government documents, etc.) A = 1 B = 2 C = 3 D = 4 E = 5 F = 6 Y = unclear 3. PAGE - Double box #1 & #5 (4 columns) Blank = no page number 0001 = 1 0002 = 2 9998 = unclear 9999 = non-applicable 4. COLUMN -- line 1 Blank = no column (government documents, etc.) Column 1 = 1 Column 2 = 2 Column 3 = 3 Column 4 = 4 Column 5 = 5 or higher 5. DATE --PID box (6 columns, start at far left column) 1. Month = 2 columns (01: January - 12: December) 2. Day = 2 columns (01 - 31) 3. Year = 2 columns (85 - 93) 6. STORY NUMBER ID# -- PID box after date (2 columns) 01 = 1 02 = 2 03 = 3 7. RELIABILITY #I (for reliability test) -- Section number box (3 columns) If article has a reliability number in red ink on its upper right-hand corner, code the number in an identical fashion in this box, for example: 700=700 701= 701 800= 800 801= 801 8. RELIABILITY #II (for reliability test) -- Form box (2 columns) If article has a reliability number, underneath this number will be a designator 2a or 2b. 2a= article included in main data set and reliability test 2b= article for reliability test only (won't also be included in main data) 4d= non-applicable 9. RELIABILITY #III-- SERIAL ID# (for reliability test) - triple box 13 (3 columns) Every reliability test article has an original serial number marked as such in blank in on the top middle of each article. 001=1 002=2 003=3 10. STORY LENGTH - Triple box 14 (3 columns) 001 = 1 002 = 2 999 = unclear 11. TYPE OF ARTICLE - line 2 (one row) 1. New York Times 2. Washington Post 3. Presidential documents/ papers 4. State Department Bulletin 12. TYPE OF COVERAGE FOR NEWSPAPERS -- lines 3 and 4 (two rows) 11. Front page 12. Editorial 13. News 13. TYPE OF COVERAGE FOR GOVERNMENT DOCUMENTS -- lines 5 and 6 (two rows) 11. Interviews/ Conversations/ Questions and answers 12. Press releases/ Statements (written or oral) 13. Speeches/ Addresses 14. News conferences/ Briefings 15. Embassy briefing 21. Pentagon briefing 22. State Department briefing 23. White House briefing 24. Congressional briefing 25. Messages to Congress/ Congressional related hearings 35. unclear 41. none of the above 42. non-applicable 14. SOURCES 1st SOURCE -- double boxes 2&6 (3 columns) 2nd SOURCE -- double boxes 6&10 (3 columns) 3rd SOURCE -- double boxes 3&7 (3 columns) 4th SOURCE -- double boxes 7&11 (3 columns) 5th SOURCE -- double boxes 4&8 (3 columns) 6th SOURCE -- double boxes 8&12 (3 columns) Blank = no source 001. President 002. Presidential Advisers/Spokespersons 003. Vice President 004. National Security Adviser/Staff 005. Other White House/Administration (unspecified) ----- 006. Secretary of State 007. State Department/Organizations/Staff 008. U.S. Ambassadors/Diplomats/Embassies/families 009. Other State Department 010. Defense Department/Military 011. Commerce Department/Treasury/Trade/Customs 012. American Justice Department/Courts/Judges 013. FBI 014. CIA 126. INS (Immigration and naturalization service) 127. Police department/costal border control 130. U.S.-China international agreement 015. Other Government Departments --- 016. U.S./America (vague reference) 017. U.S./American government/U.S. officials (vague reference) --- 018. Senate (including state and national senates, senators and staff members) 019. House (including state and national House representatives/house congressmen and staff members) 020. Congress/Congressmen/Congresswomen (Only code "congress" when senate and/or House distinctions cannot be made. Congress would then include state and national congressmen, congresses and staff members.) 021. American academicians/researchers/students 022. American businesses/corporations (and related groups) 023. American lawyers 024. American labors/unions 025. American celebrities/producers/actors/U.S.-China exchange staff, etc. 026. Other American civilians/groups/organizations/ religious leader (non-government) 027. American presidential candidates 028. Former American presidents/officials 131. President elect 132. American Mass media 995. Other (clear, but not listed here.) 999. Unclear 15. NUMBER OF GRAPHS SOURCES MENTIONED IN 1st SOURCE -- lines 7-8 (two rows) 2nd SOURCE -- lines 9-10 (two rows) 3rd SOURCE -- lines 11-12 (two rows) 4th SOURCE -- lines 13-14 (two rows) 5th SOURCE -- lines 15-16 (two rows) 6th SOURCE -- lines 17-18 (two rows) 16. CHANNELS 1st CHANNEL -- lines 19 - 21 (3 rows) 2nd CHANNEL -- lines 23 - 25 (3 rows) 3rd CHANNEL -- lines 26 - 28 (3 rows) Blank = no channel 111. Administration Press releases/ Statements (written or oral) 112. Administration News conferences/ Briefings 431. Presidential memo 113. Embassy briefing 114. Pentagon briefing 115. White House briefing 255. CIA briefing 345. Treasury briefing 121. Congressional briefing 122. Administration Speeches/ Addresses 123. Congressional Messages/ Hearings/ Debates/ Statements/Letters, etc. 124. State Department briefing 125. Administration other 321. American civilian letter/reports 322. American civilian news letters 323. American non-government news conferences 324. American media 325. American civilian other 554. Other 555. Unclear 17. AMOUNT OF GRAPHS CONTAINING INFORMATION COMING FROM A PARTICULAR CHANNEL 1st CHANNEL -- lines 29-30 (two rows) 2nd CHANNEL -- lines 31-32 (two rows) 3rd CHANNEL -- lines 33-34 (two rows) See Chart 1 for two-line counting. Abbreviated version below: Blank = none 1 = 11 2 = 12 54 = 24 or more 55 = unclear 18. MAIN SUBJECT -- triple box 15 (3 columns) 001. Government and Diplomacy 002. Politics 003. Human Rights 004. Military/ Defense 005. Economics/Trade/ Business 006. Education 007. Media/Media Censorship 008. Culture/ Cultural Exchanges/ Arts/ Music/ Books 009. Religion 010. Science and Technology/ Medicine 011. Nature Preservation 012. Sports 013. Tourism 014. Personality Profiles/ Biographies/ Obituaries 015. Crime/Terrorism/Drug Trafficking 016. Immigration 017. MFN 018. Tiananmen Square 995. Other (clear, but not listed here.) 999. Unclear 19. DEVIATION I (China status Quo) - line 35 (one row) Blank = non-applicable 1. Not at all threatening 2. Somewhat threatening 3. Dangerous to status quo 4. Extremely dangerous to status quo 5. Unclear 20. DEVIATION II (U.S. Norms) - line 36 (one row) Blank = non-applicable 1. Would not have broken any U.S. norms 2. Would have somewhat violated U.S. norms 3. Would have violated existing U.S. norms 4. Would have seriously broken U.S. norms 5. Unclear 21. CONCRETE - line 37 (one row) Blank = non-applicable 1. Yes 2. No 3. Other 4. Unclear 22. CONFLICT - line 38 (one row) Blank = non-applicable 1. Yes 2. No 4. Other 5. Unclear 23. CRISIS - line 39 (one row) Blank = non-applicable 1. No crisis 2. Slight/ limited crisis 3. Crisis 4. Severe crisis 5. Unclear 24. VIOLENCE - line 40 (one row) Blank = non-applicable 1. Yes 2. No 4. Other 5. Unclear 25. AMERICAN NON-ADMINISTRATION ATTITUDE TOWARD U.S. GOVERNMENT CHINA STAND -- line 41 (one row) Blank = no American non-administration attitude 1. Unsupportive 2. Qualified unsupportive 3. Neutral/ balanced 4. Qualified supportive 5. Supportive 26. AMERICAN DESCRIPTIONS OF MAINLAND CHINA -- line 42 (one row) Blank = non-applicable 1. Negative 2. Qualified negative 3. Neutral/balanced 4. Qualified positive 5. Positive 27. AMERICAN ATTITUDE TOWARD U.S.- CHINA RELATIONS -- line 43 (one row) Blank = non-applicable 1 = Unfavorable 2 = Qualified unfavorable 3 = Neutral/balanced 4 = Qualified favorable 5 = Favorable 28. IF ANY FORM OF THE WORD "DEMOCRACY" IS MENTIONED, HOW MANY MENTION THIS TERM? See Chart 1 for two-line counting. Abbreviated version below: Blank = none 1 = 11 2 = 12 54 = 24 or more 55 = unclear Two-column counting blank=no mention 1 mention = 11 2 mentions =12 3 mentions =13 4 =14 5 =15 6 =21 7 =22 8 =23 9 =24 10 =25 11 =31 12 =32 13 =33 14 =34 15 =35 16 =41 17 =42 18 =43 19 =44 20 =45 21 =51 22 =52 23 =53 24 or more =54 Unclear =55
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