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Cyberjournalism: A Look at the Future of Newspapers and Print Education Dr. Sherri Ward Massey assistant professor University of Central Oklahoma NEWSPAPER DIVISION AEJMC 3500 Wagonwheel Rd. Edmond, OK 73034 (405) 348-4462 (home) (405) 348-7907 (fax) (405) 341-2980 Ext. 5458 (office) [log in to unmask] Cyberjournalism: A Look at the Future of Newspapers and Print Education ABSTRACT This Delphi study strives to make predictions and generate discussion about the future of newspapers and education for print journalists. The conclusion is that current changes in technology have created a fear that is necessary and beneficial. The panelistsDjournalists and educatorsDagreed that future journalists will have to stay abreast of trends in technology, learn how to work independently and work harder than ever to understand their consumers. Cyberjournalism: A Look at the Future of Newspapers and Print Education Cyberjournalism: A Look at the Future of Newspapers and Print Education INTRODUCTION It's too bad that we, as journalism educators, can't look into the monitors of our personal computers and see what skills we need to teach our students to prepare them for a future in print journalism. Or can we? We can observe the trends, many of which are occurring via the device that sits on our desks. We know that print journalists will need to be able to use computers, but what else will they need to know? Which is more important, the "basics" or technical skills? There is little disagreement among educators and professionals that journalists will always need the basic skills of good writing and analysis. But the influx of computers and other technology into the industry has changed the way we define "print journalist." Must a print journalist be a technological wizard to succeed in this profession? Which skills should be learned in college coursework and which should be learned on the job? This study seeks to further the discussion of these issues. PURPOSE The purpose of this study is to make some predictions, based on the opinions of a panel of experts, about the future of newspapers and the skills that will be necessary for future journalists. The panelists in this study participated in an anonymous discussion about these issues. These newspaper industry experts evaluated one another's responses, allowing for a compilation of opinions. This study was designed to garner information about newspaper technology and to offer - through the consensus of experts - some idea of how professionals and educators can plan for the future. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE Electronic information Over the past two decades, newspapers have advanced beyond the first electronic information services of audiotext. Today, newspapers offer same-day text, back issues, talk forums, references, advertising, access to the editor and other services. Still, the vast majority of Americans do not own personal computers, and fewer still own (or regularly use) modems. It is still a small but public faction of people who go on-line every day. But as assistants to newsgatherers, personal computers already are important to journalists. Courses in on-line reporting are being added to journalism curricula everywhere. Students are expected to write and research stories on-line, and they often turn in their homework via a modem. No newsprint? The Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Knight-Ridder Inc., among others, have spent some considerable time and money investing in the idea that newspapers will one day be paperless. Some of the panelists in this study suggested that they believe this is the future of print journalism. MIT has, for about a decade, worked on "The Daily Me," a paper tailored to an individual's interests. Knight-Ridder established a lab in Boulder, Colo., to explore electronic publishing alternatives such as a flat-panel, notebook-sized computer. Such a newspaper would allow users to access information from any number of newspapers, restaurants, airlines and a variety of other places. The lab shut down in August 1995, but not before the director, Roger Fidler, in a wave of publicity, had traveled the country talking about the lab's innovative ideas for newspapers. Knight-Ridder, like most publishing companies, is now concentrating on developing on-line newspapers. Fidler, the MIT researchers and others who have researched the paperless newspaper are visionariesDnot all of their ideas have worked, but all contribute to the development of future technologies. Old fashioned skills The publisher of the Miami Herald, David Lawrence Jr., agrees that newspapers will be widely available electronically but says "print will never be pass " (p. 13). He suggested (pp. 15-17) that journalists trying to meet the challenges of the technological advances should concentrate on: y offering good commentary y being relevant to the readers' needs y reflecting the communities with diversity in staff and content y listening to readers y offering better customer service y guarding individuality (of the newspaper) y retaining credibility Robert H. Giles, editor of the Detroit News, emphasized the importance of the skills of the journalists in meeting the needs of customers. The workforce, he said, would have to be diversified, have continuous training and education and a strengthening of core journalistic values. "Editors seeking to add staff will be expected to meet a different test: how will the new staffers assist the newspaper to reach the new markets of readers and advertisers it is trying to attract or how will the staffers enable the newsroom to absorb more responsibility for production of the paper through the computer-driven processes of pagination?" (pp. 33-34) William Ketter, president of the American Society of Newspaper Editors and editor of the Quincy (Mass.) Patriot Ledger, told Editor & Publisher that newspapers' fascination with electronic news would intensify and suggested that journalists will need to be multimedia reporters who work for a variety of information enterprises. Newspapers are trying to meet the needs of readers with projects aimed at discovering that elusive factorDwhat do the readers want? Knight-Ridder's 25/43 project, referring to the ages of the post-World War II "baby boomers," has experimented with formats that appeal to that particular readership. The company's Boca Raton, Fla. News was redesigned in the early 1990s as a prototype. The Gannett Co. has used News 2000 to emphasize "community" in its newspapers. the program was designed to improve editorial content through key areas and to encourage a focus on the topics of interest to particular communities. METHOD Allen (1978) described the social science methodology of the Delphi Technique as a tool used by policymakers to forecast and make plans for the future. Forecasters, he noted, often rely on the opinions of experts but find themselves perplexed when those experts disagree on an issue. The Delphi Technique, as Allen explained, offers a systematic method to "reduce the uncertainty to unity" (p. 119). The Rand Corporation in California (Allen) developed the Delphi in the 1960s as a way to eliminate the influences of personal interaction among the members of a group. In the first practical use of Delphi, researchers collected the advice of seven experts to develop an industrial target system for nuclear weapons. The Delphi, Allen noted, operates under three distinct characteristics: anonymous responses, controlled feedback and statistical group response. Perhaps most important, with the Delphi, the results are reported anonymously to each member, with an allowance for feedback on each issue in the questionnaire. Of course, no one can be certain of future events - particularly of an industry's future - and thus, in this study, the Delphi method does not promise to reveal what technology will dominate the newspaper industry. However, the experts in this study conducted their anonymous discussion based on their experience in the newspaper industry, their knowledge of technology potential and economic conditions and/or their experience as journalism educators. The result of this Delphi represents, as Allen emphasized, "a communication climate most conducive for rational and objective thought" (p. 121). Selection of Subjects Delphi methodology does not require random sampling of subjects. Allen suggested a panel of 10 to 30 and emphasized that panelists be experts in the topic: The main point is that they "have information to share, are motivated to work on the problem, and the time to complete the tasks involved with the procedure" (p. 123). The panelists for this study were selected based on their experience as professional newspaper journalists or as college-level journalism educators. All are involved in the professional use and/or study of advanced technology in the newspaper industry. Computer database searches of industry trade journals, journalism faculty listings, trade magazines and newspapers led to the development of a list of 71 potential panelists. The potential participants were asked, via letter, whether they wished to participate in the study. For this study, 21 experts agreed to participate in three rounds of surveys about the future of newspapers. Research Instrument This study used three rounds of questionnaires as the research instruments for the Delphi Technique. The first and third rounds consisted of open-ended questions designed to garner a variety of opinions from the panelists, while the second round sought an evaluation and ranking of the responses of the first round. In Round I, panelists were asked two questions: 1. Specifically as a result of technology/electronics, what major changes are you seeing and/or do you expect to see in newspapers over the next 20 years? (List 5) 2. What skills will newspaper journalists need to respond to these changes? (List 5) Round II used a five-point semantic differential scale to allow panelists to note which changes were "most likely" and "least likely" to acquire in the future. Based on the panelists' responses to Round I, the changes were divided into the categories of "Personnel," "Delivery," "Skills," "Content" and "Industry." The panelists also noted which skills newspaper journalists were "most likely" and "least likely" to need to respond to those changes. The skills were divided into three categories: "Basic," "Technological" and "Interpersonal." Duplicated answers were consolidated, resulting in 48 changes predicted for newspapers and 44 skills suggested for journalists. In Round III, panelists were given a list of the top five skills (based on the results of Round II) and asked to comment on how journalists and future journalists might best acquire these skills. A personally addressed cover letter accompanied each questionnaire in each of the three rounds. The Round I cover letter included an explanation of the purpose of the study, the need for the study, the promise of anonymity among respondents during the study, the purpose of Round I, the response deadline, the address and phone number of the researcher and a statement of appreciation. For Rounds II and III, the cover letters included a statement of appreciation for the participant's prior response, the purpose of the round, the response deadline and the address and phone numbers of the researcher. RESULTS Round I The 21 panelists' Round I answers about changes in the industry were consolidated into a master list of 48 for use in Round II: seven in personnel, seven in delivery, four in skills, 13 in content, 17 in industry. Similar responses were not repeated. The panelists' answers about skills for journalists resulted in a list of 44: 25 in basic, nine in technological and 10 in interpersonal. Round II For statistical purposes, the blank closest to "likely" was scored a five, with the others scored in descending order to one for the blank closest to "unlikely." Based on this, the top five changes predicted for newspapers and top five skills for journalists were determined. (See Tables I and II). Based on this scoring, the top five predicated changes for newspapers included: 1. More demands for staff with computer expertise. 2. More part-time and contract work. 3. (tie) Serious questions regarding copyright. Better reproduction quality. 4. Full-page pagination; total computer layout of newspapers. 5. A struggle by small newspapers (esp. independent) to afford electronic enhancements. The top five predicated skills needed by journalists included: 1. Journalists will have to learn how to keep learning and changing what they do and how they do it. 2. A better understanding of the readership of newspapers. 3. Computerized information-gathering techniques and data manipulation techniques. 4. A willingness/openness to communicate via a variety of media. 5. Ability to work independently; i.e. at home or with minimal direct supervision. Changes Table I lists the predictions for the future of newspapers. The higher scores indicate the more likely the change. TABLE I RATINGS OF PREDICTED CHANGES AS A RESULT OF TECHNOLOGY IN THE NEWSPAPER INDUSTRY ______________________________________________________________________________ Problem Score ______________________________________________________________________________ More demands for staff with computer expertise. 77 More part-time and contract work. 76 Serious questions regarding copyright. 74 Better reproduction quality. 74 Full-page pagination; total computer layout 72 of newspapers. A struggle by small newspapers (esp. independent) 71 to afford electronic enhancements. Newspapers will become increasingly visual: 71 color, graphics, photos. More special sections targeted to specific audiences. 71 Increasing emphasis on alternative methods of packaging 71 and distributing information. Newspapers will re-sell captured information, on-line 71 and otherwise. Editorial and advertising staffs will become more 71 "multimedia" knowledgeable as information is distributed down "wires." Fewer personnel throughout the paper. 71 Desperation to hold or gain market share, especially 70 in new fields. TABLE I (CONTINUED) A growing gap between "have" and "have-not" newspapers 68 based on whether they have the amount of capital needed to invest in costly new technology. More newspaper buyouts and combining of several 67 community papers into either one newspaper from the region's largest city or, several newspapers, each with a different city name on the front page nameplate. The question "What is journalism" or "what, or who, 66 is a journalist" will become extremely relevant. Fewer newspapers as we now know them. 66 More newspapers will provide interactive capabilities 66 for their audiences. Increasing emphasis on alternative methods of gathering 66 information. A move toward personalizing of advertising. 64 Journalists will become more accessible to readers/users 62 (because of) E-mail, faxes, etc. Much more dialogue with readers/users, with an ability 62 for us to respond immediately to them and for them to react immediately to what we do. Quickened speed of reporting and editing. 62 Evolvement of the news library into a source of 62 considerable revenue for the newspaper. Discussion (exchange of information) will be seen 61 as a larger part of what newspapers do. The line between newspapers, the electronic media and 61 news services will get very blurred. An explosion of information that may overwhelm the line 61 editors. Newspapers across the country may become even more predictable. "Information" provision will matter less: reducing, managing, 60 separating, boiling down information will matter more. Breakdown of stories into several parts (pictorial, graphics, etc.) 60 for entering any point. TABLE I (CONTINUED) What the "value-added" is of the journalist, or editorial end, 60 of the operation will have to be rethought. Greater centralization of some functions of geographically 58 disparate papers under the same ownership. Greater quality of product overall. 56 Laws affecting access to government data will be revised 55 dramatically. Fewer people doing more work with less attention to 54 detail and depth. There will be fewer newspapers available only in paper. 54 More local news coverage; especially in how local government works. 53 Improved deadlines/later news in print. 52 More attention to young readers. 51 Ability to deliver what market-and-profit-obsessed owners demand 51 in ways that serve the public's needs. Stable, but smaller circulations. 50 Newspapers might have a way (via on-line) to regain lost national 49 ad revenues. Knight-Ridder/Roger Fidler will try out the electronic tablet 48 and upgrade its interactive capabilities. Newspapers will offer better coverageDmore in-depth stories. 47 Loss of human creativity via formatted stories and page designs. 46 Reporters and editors will become even more isolated from society. 45 More emphasis will go into providing information for information's 45 sake, rather than worrying about the aesthetic nature of the prose and pictures. Printed news will disappear in favor of electronic delivery within 39 the next 30 years. Skills Table II lists the predictions for the skills journalists will need to respond to changes in the industry. The higher scores indicate the more likely the need for the skill . TABLE II RATINGS OF PREDICTED SKILLS FOR FUTURE JOURNALISTS IN THE NEWSPAPER INDUSTRY ______________________________________________________________________________ Skill Score ______________________________________________________________________________ Journalists will have to learn how to keep learning 75 and changing what they do and how they do it. A better understanding of the readership of newspapers. 73 Computerized information-gathering techniques and data 72 manipulation techniques. A willingness/openness to communicate via a variety of media. 71 Ability to work independently; i.e. at home or with minimal 70 direct supervision. The ability to juggle ever-increasing demands to service 69 their publishers' increasing array of products and services. Ability to do a variety of tasks under one job description; 69 multiple skills in writing, editing, photography, etc. Ability to understand/use computer hardware and software. 68 Good judgment; ability to weigh the significance of stories. 68 Journalists will need to know more about protecting and promoting 67 the First AmendmentDespecially Freedom of Information. They must learn to convince the public of the need for a free pressDalways. Knowledge of economics, business, finance and marketing. 65 Ability to rely solely on computers for all processing of content. 65 TABLE II (CONTINUED) Time management and paper discipline will become increasingly 65 important as will development of the ability to store information in a hierarchy. Journalists need to be more comfortable in interneting with citizens. 65 Ability to interact with all kinds of people. 65 Critical thinking skills. 63 Ability to subject electronically gathered information to 63 to quantitative analysis. Enhanced deadline skillsDmore immediate transmission of 61 information requires a faster journalistic turnaround. Organizational skills. 61 Very quick editing expertise. 61 Ability to complete work in an accurate and fair manner. 61 The ability to communicate clearly and concisely, more so 60 than ever. The need to attend workshops and seminars to improve 60 one's basic skills. Business training and skills. 59 A better feel for foreign affairs issues. 58 Ability to be flexible and view changing market demands 58 as opportunities. A better understanding of which individuals and organizations 58 nationally and internationally represent the top of their area of expertise. A better grasp of what increased accessibility to readers/users means. 56 Civility will be a "skill" journalists will have to master. 56 Typography knowledge. 55 Improved writing skills 53 Journalists must become generalistsDtake the mass media writing 53 approach. Foreign languages (as the world grows ever smaller) 53 TABLE II (CONTINUED) QuotesDNewspaper writers/reporters need to interview 52 for quotes. Very improved reporting skills; ability to cover any and all 52 news stories. More curiosity and persistence. 51 GrammarDmore time spent in the classroom teaching 48 the love of language. Improved spelling skills. 47 Improved punctuation skills. 46 Round III This round consisted of panelists' comments as to how journalists can/should acquire the necessary skills to be successful in the newspaper industry in the future. The panelists noted the importance of on-going training for journalists. They said that journalists can and should learn technological skills and newsgathering skills before entering the workforce but noted the importance of workshops, seminars and other forms of continuing education. The panelists also pointed out the importance of using research and daily contact to keep up with consumers' needs. In regard to the diversity/willingingess to use a variety of media, the panelists suggested that journalism schools offer broader-based studies programs so that students learn a variety of skills (including self-discipline) and are exposed to different ways of thinking. 1. Journalists will have to learn how to keep learning and changing what they do and how they do it. "In-service training will have to be mandatory. Reporters and editors will have to recognize daily that they cannot remain stale. They must improve by accepting criticism and finding ways daily that they can improve what they did yesterday. Journalists must critique their own work and learn from it. Reporters are both teachers and students. They can never stop learning. Never. Learning from other publications, especially the New York Times, can help. Most will have to adopt higher standards and write better. The new research study by the Nieman Foundation at Harvard can help all of us to improveDdaily." "How to use statistics, store and call them up through databases, provide backgrounds, quickly from disks and newspaper databases, etc., must be skills updated regularly." "Continuing education, more programs in newsrooms to send journalists back to school or to seminarsDat the Poynter Institute, for instance." "Attend company-sponsored workshops on managing change. Newspapers should train their managers to manage change." "Although there will always be a need for reporters, writers and editors, journalists need to keep learning the delivery skills necessary to transport what they prepare to customers, no matter how the customers might prefer it. Print journalists should regard evolving communications technologies as opportunities rather than threats. While print alone can be powerful, addition of audio and video may enhance a report." "Darwin will prevail here. The industry already is changing very rapidly. To a large extent, it will be true that those who cannot adapt won't survive." "This can be done by keeping up with the news. By reading the other daily and weekly newspapers available in their community, by watching news TV and listening to news radio, by having membership in the local chapter and national Society of Professional Journalists and other journalism organizations, by actively participating in the events of the local community, especially events they are not covering, and having membership in church, men's/women's social organizations and NOT as the publicity person. Also, they can return to school for classes/degrees in history, econ., poli science, business, urban studies." "To continue to grow, the newsroom culture must seriously consider instituting 5-and 10-year training cycles. It may take more than this span, but five years is a start. In my experience, reporters need about five years to go from apprenticeship status to well-trained status, then they'll want to consider graduate work, a second degree, seminars at API or some other formalized training. The training must be formal and systematic because reporters don't read. They barely read their own newspapers. Reading a book about reporting is a joke. Some do all these things but these rare people rarely stay reporters. They move into higher-paying jobs. The advanced training should cover all the advanced skills that academics use...survey research, content analysis and so on. Reporters must then be trained to recognize a valid trend and one that appears important but is a function of the numbers. Newspapers must be willing to fund this advanced training or risk losing more readers to other media." "Tighter ties to universities." "Well, this isn't rocket science. Journalists have always had to learn as they go, as they get new beats, new assignments, promotions, etc. Now they have to learn how to tap into databases, massage information and speak more directly and personally to their readers/users. There are courses at community colleges, at computer stores. There's self-help stuff. And there's an obligation of management to see to it that journalists receive the training they need to do the best job possible." "If journalism schools do a better job of teaching students how to think, future journalists will be better positioned to do this. However, I'm not optimistic that future j schools will have either the resources, or even the mind set, seriously to set about doing this. 2. A better understanding of the readership of newspapers. "It's absolutely essential that journalists keep pace with their audience. Customers increasingly are becoming accustomed to receiving information via 'multimedia'." "In 25 years will the typical newspaper still be delivered on newsprint, at your doorstep?" "This requires constant talking with readers. It will take as much time to cultivate readers as to cultivate sources, but it's a new and necessary part of being a journalist. But the talking comes easier, what with e-mail and chat rooms. Again, management has a responsibility here, to do more readership surveys and to make sure everyone in the newsroom gets the results." "Readership is declining. We have to find ways to lure readers. Big stories as the Oklahoma City bombing cannot do it alone. All of us have to "sell" journalism better. There must be better understanding that journalism is integral to the survival of the democratic process as we know it now." "Editorials and a certain amount of canter have to be what readers need for information..." "Better training in journalism and communications schools; more training and in statistics and survey techniques." "Management must survey readership, show the information, then prepare a strategy for meetingDor ignoringDreader preferences or needs." "Print managers slowly are recognizing that they must have different attitudes to their reader/customer. With competitive pressures mounting from on-line as well as broadcast providers, newspapers must be more willing to recognize what readers want and give it to them. The hard part is to force that down into the organization. It must be policy to work." "Journalists, working with research sourcesDindependent of the medium to be surveyedDshould help design market research surveys, and any other way that they can understand what people want in their medium. Even serving a few hours or days representing the medium at a local or county fair booth can be enlighteningDif they will wear a name/title badge, talk with the public and take notes on what they hear. As well, journalists should encourage the medium for which they work to hold open house days so the public can walk through, see the work environment and ask questions, and again, notes should be taken on questions/answers with feedback in op/ed columns, discussion radio/TV shows." "More contact with citizens." "The days of newsroom isolationism are over. The newsroom that disregards circulation and advertising is the newsroom that is working itself out of a job. Reporters and editors must realize that middle-age women are still their most loyal readers for most of the content. Reporters must be taught through in-house seminars the need to make content visual, easy-to-understand, and yes, graphic. A reporters should be required to take a graphic artists with her on one assignment a week to see the story through the artist's eyes." 3. Computerized information-gathering techniques and data manipulation techniques. "Computers and the availability of databases offers heretofore unheard of opportunities for journalists as they attempt to gain perspective on stories. Computer skills are necessary to take advantage of these opportunities as well as helping to make sure data is interpreted correctly." "Precision journalism, exposure to social scientific methodology, including statistics, exposure to electronic data resources all can be provided as part of an undergraduate program. But many undergrads would need to be shoved in that direction, since an embarrassingly high percentage of them can't reliably compute a percentage!" "Again, it's a matter of making this kind of learning a priority and having management encourage the learning. Software is available to help with almost any kind of a situation. And there are seminars being offered, there are working journalists willing to share their expertise, there are IRE conferences." "On-line and Internet are here to stay. We all have to accept this. We have no choice. We cannot, however, sacrifice our basic journalist principles. Never. And we must face the future with optimismDnot with a sense of defeat. "Special seminars and formal newsroom training sessions." "Company-sponsored classes." "Journalism schools have to ... teach electronic skills to aspirants. Multiple talents will becoming increasingly important as the media move closer together." "Journalists should attend trade shows, find out what is new in the technical side of media and how technology is and will impact their lives and those who use the media. If classes are available to learn more about technology where the journalist is employed, through the community or at a local recreation, high school, community college or university, they should attendDeven if that particular technology is not being used on the job yet." "I have no idea." "It's a must. We in J schools have got to teach our students to be comfortable with Internet, to hopping from web to web and hot link to hot link. WE must re-design our newspapers with all kind of entry points into an electronic version that will use sound and video to snag that reader for goodDours and his." 4. A willingness/openness to communicate via a variety of media. "Readers are viewers are listeners, etc. Young persons seem more comfortable with "new media" such as PCs, MTV, electronic games and on-line services than they are with more traditional media like newspapers. Journalists should not ignore this trend but, rather, regard it as an opportunity." "Communicate with whom? via..media: two-way media? On one level, openness to others is a personality trait learned during childhood socialization." "This sounds as though it's a personality question. Is someone willing to be open and quick about entering chat rooms and answering e-mail? Well, modern journalists will have to be, because it will be an integral part of the job. It will be part of the interviewing process. Asking the right questions at the right time in the right way have always been part of the job of a good reporter." "TV and radio journalists will have to be more willing to adopt the professional principles of the Society of Professional Journalists and other print journalists. Always." "Many journalists now think of other media as the developing story for their human employee. (There are) lots of writers in talk, sports, government talk shows because of the newsroom knowledge." "Broader-based media studies programs in journalism and communication schools." "Company-sponsored classes and entrepreneurial cells." "Multiple talents will becoming increasingly important as the media move closer together." "With knowledge of technology and the ability to use several (more than FAX!), even Internet e-mail, journalists can at least be on the fringe understanding the newDrelatively newDsources for communication. E-mail itself is the new ham radio (sans voice but instead with typing fingers!) and should be the absolute minimum expected of all journalists to use for communication." "Experience." "It's a must. To gain the X generation, information must come in to other forms. The print product can survive as the index to these forms. Again, J schools must retool and help students with this issue. I'm teaching a class now where the student is required to search web sites and report to me. In addition, the student is helping me develop our electronic student newspaper." 5. Ability to work independently; i.e. at home or with minimal direct supervision. "It seems apparent that telecommuting may become the work environment for an increasing number of journalists. Speedy delivery of copy and graphics, traffic challenges and the global nature of coverage all contribute to this trend. It will mean that journalists must exercise appropriate discipline." "Whether or not they wish to, many journalists will be forced to do this as employers seek ways to reduce payment of benefits to employees. Obviously, having PCs and a modem are going to be necessary, if not sufficient." "Again, this is just the way it is going to be in the industry and all of usDschools, managers, seminar leadersDare going to have to teach these skills and hire those who have them." "Self-starters are always in demand. You have to demonstrate that you can work on your own without constant hands-on supervision. Journalists should be independent, anyhow. Always." "Some part-timers now file area government meetings from home computers and hold down full-time jobs elsewhere. Reporters usually work well at homeDless distraction, if kids are older." "These skills must be mastered by the time a person is in high school." "A two-edged sword. Economic pressures and improved technology will encourage employers to outsource more and more work and to create telecommuting opportunities. The ability to work and think independently must be fostered by J-schools. "Journalists should be able to use the resources from those available via watching, listening and seeing. The journalists is the public's representative at the source of the story. Journalists of today, if they are going to be successful, must be information processors, not human word processors. Too many of college graduates are only the latter, and I have noticed this to be a disease as the greater number of journalism departments at colleges/universities have changed to become communication(s) departments; a "communicologist" is not a serious, curious, original thinking, critical thinking college/university graduate. Too many are pretty faces who, following their ego, only want to be the TV news anchor in the most major market possibleDand for these folks, this is where the money is. Bahhhh. Those who lack mechanical language skills and would not know a story if it hit him or her in the face, have "get by" work habits need much direct supervision!!" "Experience." "Since the earthquake in Los Angeles, thousands are working from home using computers and modems. My sense is that maverick approach is coming, but most newsrooms that I worked in want warm bodies within a few feet of an editor's desk to scold and to punish with the latest unexpected news story. For this reason, I'm not sure if this situation will come to pass. Certainly, the editing teaching ca be farmed out. J schools could help writers with this approach by using distance learning and Internet e-mail to communication progress." Conclusions/Discussion It's no surprise that the top predicted changes for newspapers related directly to computers. What is interesting here is that the panelists consideredDin almost an extreme fashionDboth the positive and negative influence of computers. The top two predictions could be taken either way: more demands for staff with computer expertise and more part-time and contract work. The other positives: better reproduction, full-page pagination, more visual newspapers, more special sections targeted to audiences, more accessibility to the audiences, quickened speed of reporting and editing, loss of human creativity, distribution and re-selling of on-line information, more knowledgeable news staff. The negatives: questions about copyright (a whole new research area), a struggle by small newspapers to afford the technology, fewer personnel throughout the paper, a desperation to hold or gain market shares, a growing gap between the "haves" and "have-nots", more newspaper buyouts, fewer newspapers, problems with access to information, greater centralization of newspapers, confusion about how to define "journalist." The panelists illustrated the confusion and perhaps fright that many educators/professionals encounter when planning for the future. So many of us have been afraid of what's happening to the industry, as we watch century-old newspapers die, that we are timid about placing our trust in anything that promises a future for newspapers. The panelists' suggestions for necessary skills mostly dealt with three areas: the ability to use the technology; the ability to work independently; and the ability to interact well with other people. It is interesting to note that this conjures a picture of a journalist stuck behind a computer (doing all the research, interviewing, writing, editing, discussion) from his/her home office. How, then, will he/she interact with colleagues and members of the community? On-line discussions cannot replace reading faces/expressions and mannerisms. The first "skill" is a statement that reflects the knowledge/fear necessary for dealing with any major change: "Journalists will have to learn how to keep learning and changing what they do and how they do it." Suggestions about technological skills include, be able to communicate through a variety of media, using the computer to gather and analyze information, ability to do a variety of tasks, the need to attend workshops. In the area of working with other people, the panelists suggested as the second skill: "A better understanding of the readership of newspapers." Several said that this might be accomplished through being a part of the community: attending events, joining clubs; in general, getting to know the readers in a personal way. Most of the panelists agreed that this "old-fashioned" way offers a true accessibility that on-line communication does not. The panelists, as a group, showed evidence of the nervous energyDa positive fearDthat accompanies any major change. The fear is positive because it spurs us on and gives us the ability to meet the changes. The panelists' discussion showed that they see the current technological changes as similar to others that have occurred in the industry, especially over the past 50 years. The challenge is to keep changing and keep learning and to use that energy to stay ahead ofthe changes. REFERENCES Allen, T. Harrell. (1978) The Delphi Technique. In New Methods in Social Science Research (pp. 119-131). New York: Praeger Publishers. Case, Tony. (April 1, 1995) Promoting The Strengths of Print Journalism. In Editor & Publisher: 128:13, pp. 11, 24-25). Giles, Robert H. (Spring 1993) Change Shapes Trends in Newspaper Management. In Newspaper Research Journal: 14:2, pp. 32-39. Lawrence, David Jr. (Spring 1993) Why Future is Promising for Newspaper Industry. In Newspaper Research Journal: 14:2, pp. 11-17. PANELISTS (based on 1995 employment) Professionals: y David Scott: electronic information publisher for the Atlanta Journal and Constitution y Rich Jaroslovsky: editor of the Interactive Edition for theWall Street Journal y Jay Smith: president, Cox News Division in Atlanta y Paul Harral: electronic editor, Ft. Worth Star Telegram. y Greg Moore: managing editor, The Boston Globe y Howard Tyner: editor,Chicago Tribune y Roy Heffelfinger: managing editor,The Morning Call in Allentown, Pa. y Curt Pierson: managing editor, Gainesville Sun in Florida y Nelson W.C. Lampe: executive news editor, Omaha World-Herald Professors: y David London: E.W. Scripps Journalism School, Ohio University y Cecilia Friend: associate professor, Department of Journalism at Utica College y Barbara F. Luebke: associate professor, Department of Journalism at the University of Rhode Island, Kingston y Michael R. Smith: assistant professor, Department of Mass Communication at Lycoming College in Williamsport, Pa. y Edmund J. Rooney: assistant professor, Communication Department at Loyola University in Chicago y Steven E. Ames: assistant professor, Department of Communication Arts at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks y James Lemert: professor, School of Journalism at the University of Oregon in Eugene y John R. McClelland: associate professor, Department of Journalism at Roosevelt University in Chicago y George P. Evans: associate professor, Department of Mass Communication, St. Bonaventure University y David H. Nimmer: assistant professor, School of Journalism at the University of St. Thomas in Afton, Minn. y William L. McCorkle: professor, Department of Journalism at Baylor University in Waco
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