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Live near Waco:
Proximate news diffusion and information seeking in two events
related to the
Branch-Davidian stand-off.
Russell B. Williams, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
110 Carnegie Building
College of Communications
The Pennsylvania State University
University Park, PA 16802
(814) 863-8121
[log in to unmask]
Live near Waco:
Proximate news diffusion and information seeking in two events
related to the
Branch-Davidian stand-off.
Abstract
The proximate diffusion of news in Waco about the A.T.F. Sunday
shoot-out and the Branch-Davidian Monday fire are examined here. Mass media
predominated in the diffusion of news about both. The lack of interpersonal
first sources may be a function of media monitoring in the second event.
Location at time of hearing relates to differences in means of first reception.
Demographics show effect as they are related to location of respondents.
Live Near Waco
Live near Waco:
Proximate news diffusion and information seeking in two related
events.
On Saturday morning, the 27th of February 1993, the Waco Tribune
Herald arrived on doorsteps with a front page story on the Branch Davidian
religious group. Members of the Branch-Davidian sect lived on a piece of land
they called "Mount Carmel" which lies just north of the Waco city limits. This
story was the first installment in a series which would explore the practices
and beliefs of the group which had splintered from the Seventh-Day Adventist
church and made its home in McLennan County in the 1930s. There were charges
made by former members of the group that the present leader, David Koresh, was
stockpiling an arsenal of automatic weapons for the impending Apocalypse,
demanding and receiving sexual favors from female members of the group,
including those below the age of consent, and abusing the children who lived in
the complex. Many of the children living at Mount Carmel were reported to be
the result of liaisons between Koresh and his female followers.
At around half past nine o'clock in the morning on the 28th of
February 1993, heavily armed agents of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and
Firearms (A.T.F.) attempted to serve an arrest warrant on Vernon Howell, a.k.a.
David Koresh, for violation of federal firearms regulations. Planning to arrive
at the Mount Carmel complex before the federal agents to shoot a story on the
arrest was a reporter and photographer from a local television station. They
had heard about the impending arrest earlier in the week. While driving to the
complex before the appointed hour the journalists got lost and the photographer
asked a stranger for directions. The stranger was a Branch Davidian and the
surprise element of the A.T.F. approach was lost. A 45-minute gun battle began
as the federal agents poured out of their cattle trailer transports. When a
cease-fire was reached five Branch Davidians and four A.T.F. agents were dead.
Koresh was on Dallas radio station KRLD via telephone by early afternoon and on
CNN in the same manner before sunset. The first of two major news events which
directly impacted the people of Waco and McLennan County and were watched by the
world had occurred.
The bombing of the World Trade Center in New York fell from the top
of newscasts and the front pages of newspapers as this story unfolded live near
Waco. In the first week of the stand-off between the federal agents and the
Branch Davidians there were more than 20 satellite newsgathering trucks parked
at the officially set media perimeter. The public was kept back even further.
Journalists rushed into Waco to cover the story from as far as Sweden and Japan.
Most journalists, including electronic and print, chose to cluster near the
F.B.I.'s mobile headquarters at what became known as Satellite City. The F.B.I.
had taken over responsibility for negotiations with the Davidians and keeping
the public informed through the press within hours of the shoot-out. Other
television journalists used their knowledge of the area and the goodwill of
residents to provide a different, though equally distant, narrow-angle view of
the Mount Carmel complex. The people of McLennan County were subjected to
television coverage every hour on the half-hour on three network affiliate
stations. Once the stand-off began to drag on from days into weeks and beyond a
month none of the journalists who had waited so long wanted to be away from the
scene when the stand-off came to a close.
At six in the morning on the 19th of April 1993 armored vehicles
began puncturing holes in the walls of the Mount Carmel complex in order to
insert tear-gas which would drive the Davidians from their wooden fort. Just
after noon, 12:07 central daylight time, at least two fires broke out
simultaneously within the complex and in less than an hour the entire structure
was reduced to smoking ash. Nine Branch Davidians escaped the fire and 86 died
inside, including seventeen children (Hancock, 1993). After 51 days, the
longest stand-off in the history of law enforcement in the United States came to
a close and the attention of the world was focused once again on a small piece
of land in McLennan County near Waco, Texas.
These two events of international interest provide a unique
opportunity to look at the diffusion of news. These occurrences make it
possible to look at the diffusion of news which was infused with a level of
attention and importance previously reserved for attacks on heads of state. The
ongoing nature of the events in Waco made the stand-off perfect for local and
network television news. News organizations could go "live" to the scene of a
continuing story even when there was nothing to say or report. The lack of
resolution kept the story a part of newscasts around the world for at least 51
days, from the chanting of Tibetan monks fed through loudspeakers and the flying
of the Israeli flag from an upper-story window in the complex to the daily press
conference from the Waco Hilton and the thoughts of local and national experts
on religion.
These two news events, a shoot-out between federal agents and Branch
Davidian adherents and the destruction of the structures and people in the Mount
Carmel complex, also make it possible to examine the differences in news
diffusion and information seeking on a Sunday and Monday. Scholars have been
interested in the differences in news diffusion on the basis of life patterns
and media use for more than 40 years (e.g., Larsen & Hill, 1954). Personal
routines and media use differ from the weekend to a weekday which may equate to
differences in the process of news diffusion as well subsequent information
seeking.
Finally, these two events make it possible to compare news diffusion
and information seeking between an unexpected event and an anticipated
unexpected event. The shoot-out was out of the realm of possibility for the
average McLennan County resident, even those who had started reading the
Davidian series in the newspaper the day before. Not many people imagine a full
scale fire fight a few miles from their home. It was a completely unexpected
event. After the stand-off began there was necessarily the anticipation of a
conclusion because the interaction between the Davidians and the federal agents
had to come to a conclusion at some point. However, the time and nature of the
final event was at least unknown for most people in the area and many of the
people involved. Even the F.B.I. had plans for 48 more hours of stand-off after
they began inserting tear gas into the buildings (Frontline, 1995). The
connection of these two events also makes it possible to consider the impact of
nearly continuous coverage of a situation on the process of diffusing news about
a pivotal event in the situation.
Hypotheses and the Literature
There are four hypotheses about the initial diffusion of news and the
pursuit of further information which drive this examination of people in the
Waco/McLennan County area and the shoot-out and fire at the Branch Davidian
Mount Carmel complex. These hypotheses are rooted in the findings and
conclusions of previous research and particulars of the Branch Davidian
situation. These hypotheses are:
1) Interpersonal channels will be as important as media
channels in the initial diffusion of news about the shoot-out and
the
fire because of the proximity, news value and the importance of both
events for people in the Waco/McLennan County area.
2) Mass media will be a more important first source for news
about the Sunday shoot-out than for the Monday fire because of the
difference in media use patterns and the location of respondents
between
the weekend and a weekday.
3) Gender, age, job categorization and time of Waco
residence will make no difference in the source of first information
and
the active search for more information in relation to the shoot-out
and
the fire.
4) Levels of active information seeking after initial
awareness will be lower for the fire than the shoot-out because of
the
on-going coverage of the event.
Hypothesis one is based on the overwhelming tendency of news
diffusion scholars to conclude that interpersonal communication is as important
as mass media communication when the news is proximate and salient for the
audience. Greenberg (1964b) in his discussion of the assassination of John
Kennedy found that "... saturation of the communication channels created the
maximum opportunity for diffusion to occur by either mass media or interpersonal
channels" (p. 232). He went on to say, "When a news event is of near-epic or
crisis proportions, e.g., the assassination of President Kennedy, interpersonal
channels of communication are as important as the mass media in disseminating
initial information" (Greenberg, 1964a, p. 494). Describing the diffusion of
news about the same calamitous event Hill and Bonjean (1964) said,
"...interpersonal communication becomes the most important single source for
news stories of extraordinary significance" (p. 342). With the passage of time
and a number of pieces of news diffusion research the importance of
interpersonal communication in the process seemed to be waning. Ostlund (1974)
concluded that "...interpersonal communication is apparently not very important
as a diffusion medium, except perhaps for calamitous events. (p. 610)
Weaver-Lariscy, Sweeney, and Steinfatt (1984) in their discussion of
the attempts on the lives of President Reagan and the Pope found that
interpersonal communication did not play an important part in news diffusion.
These researchers hypothesized that because of the magnitude of the these events
that word-of-mouth would be the most important source of initial information,
but they concluded that the mass media was the primary source of initial
information for their respondents. Moving away from the more calamitous and
epic events researchers have once again discovered the importance of
interpersonal communication, explaining that the relevance or salience of an
event for the audience will increase the importance of interpersonal channels of
communication in the diffusion process. Gantz, Krendl and Robertson (1986) and
Gantz (1983) said the more salient the event for the sample or population being
studied the more likely news about the event will be first encountered
interpersonally.
Rosengren (1973) and DeFleur (1987) reviewed the news diffusion
literature and both concluded that increases in importance, salience and news
value will increase the importance of interpersonal communication in news
diffusion. Thirty years after the conclusions about the Kennedy assassination
were published, Basil and Brown (1994) said "The more important the event, the
more people are likely to hear through interpersonal communication" (p. 308).
There can be very little doubt that the Mount Carmel shoot-out and
fire were salient for the people of Waco and McLennan County. The images from
these events, shown many times over the course of the stand-off and innumerable
times since, can also be understood as depictions of calamitous events occurring
not very far from home.
Hypothesis two is also generated directly from the news diffusion
literature. Larsen and Hill (1954) found that "... the particular daily routine
of the population in question is one major factor determining the pattern of
diffusion. Accessibility to the media and social contacts with other
individuals is probably greatly influenced by this routine" (p. 433). One of
the most significant findings of several studies on the assassination of Swedish
Prime Minister Olof Palme (e.g. Weibull, Lindahl & Rosengren, 1987) was that the
time and day of the assassination impacted the initial sources of information
about the assassination. DeFleur (1987) says, "The daily rhythms of a
population roughly regulate its initial sources of news" (p. 127). The several
studies on the assassination of John F. Kennedy also support the importance of
location for the first source of information. People's location at the time of
learning about an event is definitely effected by the day and time of the event
in question and this location may relate to the first source of the news.
Gantz's (1983) discussion of the attempt on the life of Ronald Reagan
deals directly with the first source of information in relation to the day and
time of the event. He said, "Interpersonal sources become most important in
disseminating events that occur and are picked up by the media on weekdays,
during working hours. For events that break during the evening, when broadcast
media use is greatest, or on weekends, when most people are not at work,
interpersonal sources will probably be utilized less" (Gantz, 1983, p. 64-65).
Mayer, Gudykunst, Perrill and Merrill (1990), in their attempt to build a model
of news diffusion, found that "the diffusion process is a 'linear' one in which
where one is affects how one discovers the occurrence of a major news event" (p.
121).
The occasion of the initial Mount Carmel incident on Sunday and the
final Mount Carmel incident on Monday provides an excellent opportunity to
examine the impact of day and time on the initial news source. The variance in
these two events also provides an occasion to analyze the relationship of day
and time to the active process of information seeking upon hearing the news.
Hypothesis three covers the question of demographics as independent
variables. The primary demographic variables in this study are gender, age and
job description. Job description is divided into white collar, blue collar,
student and other which includes homemakers, retirees and the unemployed. All
of the other groups do not have the limitations of location which can come with
the other occupational categories and student status. Another demographic
variable which will be considered in this study are the time the respondent has
spent in Waco. This variable could impact the individual's sense of event
salience and desire for additional information.
Previous news diffusion research creates the anticipation of no
relationship between demographics, first source, and information seeking.
Weaver-Lariscy, Sweeney and Steinfatt (1986), Bantz, Petronio and Rarick (1983),
Weibull, Lindahl and Rosengren (1987) and Mayer, Gudykunst, Perrill and Merrill
(1990) all report that demographic variables do not play a role in the news
diffusion process.
Hypothesis Four is essentially intuitive. The Davidian situation is
one of the first which makes it possible to examine news diffusion when
respondents have been bombarded with seven weeks of virtual non-news about a
situation in anticipation of an unknown final event. It seems logical to
predict that the constant presence of coverage will inhibit the pursuit of
additional information upon hearing that the end has actually come. It seems
that saturation coverage must have a numbing effect on audience members and the
manifestation of that state of mind will be a lack of interest in pursuing even
more information about the situation.
Methodology and Sample
Two telephone surveys were conducted for this study. The first
survey was completed by trained student interviewers within 30 days of the Mount
Carmel shoot-out. The time was necessary for the development of the instrument,
the training of the interviewers and the completion of interviews with a
substantial sample of the Waco/McLennan County area. Phone numbers were chosen
through the random generation of toll-free numbers for Waco and the surrounding
area. Interviewers were instructed to try the number at least three times
before abandonment. Respondents were the person who answered the phone or
someone in the household who was at least 18 years of age. There were 500
usable questionnaires generated in the survey following the February 28th
shoot-out.
The second survey was completed by trained student interviewers
within 10 days of the Mount Carmel fire. Phone numbers for this survey were
chosen using a systematic random sample of the Waco/McLennan County telephone
book. After a random start, every nth number on the page of the telephone book
was called until the page was complete. Once again, interviewers were
instructed to try the number at least three times before abandonment and
respondents were the person who answered the phone or someone in the household
who was at least 18 years of age. There were 491 usable questionnaires
generated in the survey which followed the April 19th fire. The change in
sampling was necessitated by the fact that the completely random scheme
generated an extremely high percentage of non-existent numbers which slowed the
interviewing process. T-tests were used to test the significance of differences
found between variables.
Fifty-seven percent of the sample from the first survey and 56.4% of
the sample in the second survey is female. Just more than 27% of the people in
the first sample and slightly more than 23% of the people in the second sample
were engaged in white collar occupations which includes doctors, lawyers,
accountants, teachers and sales people. The blue collar occupations, including
mechanics, laborers and service-related jobs were shared by just less than 29%
of the respondents in the first sample and 30% of respondents in the second
sample. Students comprised more than 21% of the first sample and less than 17%
of the second sample. Nearly 23% of the Texans in the first sample were in the
other categories of homemaker, retiree and unemployed along with 30% of the
people in the second sample. The average age for the members of the first
sample was just under 38 years old while those in the second sample averaged an
age of just below 43. The age difference between the two samples is correlated
to a difference in the years a respondent had lived in Waco. The average time a
person had spent in Waco for the first sample is slightly more than 20 years and
the average for the people in the second sample is slightly more than 24 years.
Findings
First Hypothesis:
Interpersonal channels were not as important as the mass media in the
diffusion of news about the February 28th shoot-out between A.T.F. agents and
Branch Davidians. Mass media were also more important than interpersonal
channels in the diffusion of the news about the April 19th conflagration at the
Mount Carmel complex. For the first event 72. 6% of the survey respondents
heard about the shoot-out through the mass media. For the second event 72.3% of
the survey respondents heard about the fire through the mass media (see Table
1).
Shoot-Out Fire
Mass Media 72.6% 72.3%
Television 58% 60.7%
Radio 6.6% 10.8% *
Newspaper 8% .8% ***
Interpersonal 27.6% 27.7%
Face-to-Face 18% 21.4%
Telephone 9.6% 6.3%
n=500 n=491
Table 1 Source of First Information (*p<.05, ***p<.001)
First news about the shoot-out came to 58% of the respondents through
the television. Radio was the first source for information for less than seven
percent of the Texans in the sample. The newspaper was reported as the first
source for information on the shootout for eight percent of the respondents.
Exactly 18% of the respondents heard about the shoot-out in face-to-face
encounters, while less than ten percent heard about it from someone over the
phone.
Just less than 61 percent of the respondents to the second survey got
their first news about the fire from television. Slightly less than eleven
percent of the group heard first on the radio. Less than one percent of the
sample members reported hearing about the fire for the first time through the
newspaper. More than 21% of the second survey respondents heard the news first
in a face-to-face contact and a bit more than six percent heard first via the
telephone.
Second Hypothesis:
Indicated by the data reported for the previous hypothesis, there was
virtually no difference in the importance of the mass media as the initial
source of information about the Sunday shoot-out and the Monday fire. First
news came to slightly more than 72% of people in both situations through the
mass media. Looking at radio as a specific medium of initial awareness there is
a difference between the process of news diffusion about the two events. Less
than seven percent of the people learning of the shoot-out heard it on the radio
while eleven percent of the sample heard about the fire on the radio (p<.05).
There are also differences in the two samples on the basis of location where the
first news was heard (see Table 2).
Shoot-Out Fire
Home 67% 53%***
Work 8.4% 30.5%***
Other 24.6% 16.5%**
n=500 n=491
Table 2 Location at Time of Hearing First Information (**p<.01,
***p<.001)
About two-thirds, 67%, of the members in the sample for the first
event were at home when they heard the news and 53% of the members of the sample
were at home when news was received about the second event (p<.001). Just more
than eight percent of the Waco area respondents were at work on the Sunday while
more than 30% were at work on the Monday (p<.001). Also, nearly 25% of the
participants were in some other location, primarily in a car, when they heard
about the shoot-out and only about 16% of the respondents were someplace other
than home or work when they heard about the fire (p<.01).
Shoot-Out Fire
Home Work Other Home Work Other
Blue Collar 64.3% 14.7% 21% 34.2% 50.7% 15.1%
White Collar 58.4% 12.4% 29.2% 25.2% 60.9% 13.9%
Student 64.2% 3.8% 32.1% 59.8% 1.2% 30.2%
Other 83.2% 16.8% 89.2% 3.4% 7.4%
n=335 n=42 n=123 n=260 n=150 n=81
Table 3 Location & Job Category at Time of Hearing First Information
Considering the respondents who were the most likely to be in a
different location on Sunday and Monday because of their work, logic prevails
(see Table 3). Sixty-four percent of the blue collar categorized respondents
were at home when they heard about the Sunday event and nearly 51% of the people
in this category were at work when they heard about the Monday event. Fifty
percent is not unreasonable because the fire broke out and the news started to
spread during lunch hour. More than 58% of the white collar respondents were at
home and another 29% were some place other than home or work when they heard
about the Sunday event. About 61% were at work when they heard about the Monday
event.
The role played by location in news diffusion is evidenced by
differences in media use for respondents at home, at work and at some other
location (see Table 4). For both the shoot-out and the fire more than 80% of
respondents who were at home heard about the event from the mass media. Between
56 and 58 percent of the people not at home for both events heard the news from
the mass media. The difference in media use for initial information was
significant between people at home and all others for both situations (p<.001).
Looking specifically at television more than 40% more of people at home learned
of the situations from television. Radio was responsible for delivering the
news for less than two percent of the people at home and more than 21% of all
others on both occasions (p<.001).
Shoot-out--February 28, 1993
Home Work/Other Work Home/Other Other Home/Work
Mass Media 80.3% 56.1%*** 35.7% 75.8%*** 63.4% 75.3%*
Television 71.9% 29.7%*** 16.7% 61.8%*** 34.1% 65.8%***
Radio 1.5% 17%*** 4.8% 6.8% 21.1% 1.9%***
Newspaper 6.9% 10.3% 14.3% 7.4% 8.9% 7.7%
Face-to-Face 8.1% 38.2%*** 54.8% 14.6%*** 32.5% 13.3%***
Telephone 11.6% 5.5%* 9.5% 9.6% 4.1% 11.4%**
n=335 n=165 n=42 n=458 n=123 n=377
Fire--April 19, 1993
Home Work/Other Work Home/Other Other Home/Work
Mass Media 85.4% 57.6%*** 53.3% 80.6%*** 65.4% 73.7%
Television 82.3% 36.4%*** 37.3% 71%*** 34.6% 65.9%***
Radio 1.5% 21.2%*** 16% 8.5%* 30.9% 6.8%***
Newspaper 1.5% 1.2% 1%
Face-to-Face 8.1% 36.4%*** 38.7% 13.8%*** 32.1% 19.3%*
Telephone 6.5% 6.1% 8% 5.6% 2.5% 7.1%*
n=260 n=231 n=150 n=341 n=81 n=410
Table 4 Event, Location & Means of First Hearing (*p<.05, **p<.01,
***p<.001)
Respondents who were somewhere other than home or work on the days of
both events also show some differences in the ways they first received
information about the events. While 75% of respondents either at home or work
at the time the news broke about the shoot-out heard from the mass media, just
more than 63% of those who were elsewhere first heard through the media (p<.05).
Looking at both events about 30% more of the people from the Waco/McLennan
County area who were at home or work heard from television than the people who
were elsewhere (p<.001). Radio was the dominant form of mass media news
communication for people neither at home or work on both the Sunday and the
Monday. Less than two percent of respondents at home or work heard about the
shoot-out on the radio, while 22% of respondents who were elsewhere were
informed via radio (p<.001). Fire information was first obtained via radio for
nearly 31% of those who were outside of home or work and just more than seven
percent of those where at home or work (p<.001).
Home Work Other
Shoot-out Fire Shoot-out Fire Shoot-out Fire
Mass Media 80.3% 85.4% 35.7% 53.3%* 63.4% 65.4%
Television 71.9% 82.3%** 16.7% 37.3%** 34.1% 34.6%
Radio 1.5% 1.5% 4.8% 16%* 21.1% 30.9%
Newspaper 6.9% 1.5%** 14.3% 8.9%
Face-to-Face 8.1% 8.1% 54.8% 38.7% 32.5% 32.1%
Telephone 11.6% 6.5%* 9.5% 8% 4.1% 2.5%
n=335 n=260 n=42 n=150 n=123 n=81
Table 5 Location, Event and Means of First Hearing (*p<.05, **p<.01)
Mass media was the initial source for shoot-out information for less
than 36% of the respondents who were at work when they heard (see Table 5).
Mass media was the initial source for fire information for more than 53% of
those who were at work. For those at work on the weekend interpersonal sources
were more important than for those at work on a week day (p<.05). Television
was the first source for 16.7% of working respondents to the first survey and
41.3% of working respondents to the second. Just under nine percent of the
people not at work at the time of the fire heard on the radio while 16% of those
working on the Monday afternoon in April first heard the news on the radio
(p<.05).
Third Hypothesis:
Overall, gender and time of Waco residence showed no major
differences in the source of first information in relation to both the shoot-out
and the fire. Gender, age, job categorization and time of Waco residence showed
no relationship to the seeking of information for the shoot-out while gender had
no relationship to information seeking after hearing news of the fire. Age and
job categorization did show some significance in its relationship to the
diffusion of news about both events. Age and job categorization seemed to be
particularly important for the diffusion of news about the Monday afternoon fire
and showed some relationship to the seeking of additional information.
There were no significant differences in the mass media overall as
the first source for news about the Sunday event on the basis of any of these
demographic variables. The same can be said of the initial search for
additional information after learning of the gun battle between the A.T.F. and
Branch Davidians. Age shows some relationship to specific avenues of hearing
the news about the shoot-out. The average age of those first hearing via
television is 39.6 years while the average age of those hearing through any
other means is 35.6 (p<.01). Showing a related difference, the average age of
those hearing through a face-to-face interpersonal contact is 33.7, while the
average age for those hearing from some other source is 38.9 (p<.01).
Face-to-face initial hearing of the event is also related to the other status of
homemaking, retiree and unemployed. Eleven and a half percent of the
respondents who can be classified as not working outside of the home heard about
the shoot-out in a face-to face situation while nearly 20% of all others heard
in this type of interpersonal context (p<.05). The active seeking of
information after the initial event was pursued by more than 91% of the
respondents classified as not working outside of the home and 84% of those
working elsewhere or enrolled in school (p<.05).
A number of significant differences were found on the basis of
demographics in relationship to first hearing news about the fire at the Mount
Carmel complex and the pursuit of additional information. The key demographics
are age and job categorization.
The average age of respondents learning about the fire first from the
mass media was 44 while the average was 39 for those who heard from an
interpersonal source (p<.001). The average age of those hearing the news about
the fire on television was 44.8 while 39.8 was the average age for those
learning in other ways (p<.01). First encountering news about the fire in a
face-to-face interpersonal interaction respondents had an average age of 37.7
while all others had an average of 44.4 (p<.001). Years spent living in the
Waco/McLennan County area is also related to first hearing face-to-face as the
average years for interpersonal hearers was 19.6 and the average years for those
hearing through some medium is 25.5 (p<.001).
Blue W/S/O White B/S/O Stdnt B/W/O Oth B/W/S
Mass Media 71.2% 72.8% 57.4% 76.9%*** 69.5% 72.9% 86.5% 66.2%***
Television 52.7% 64.1%* 43.5% 66%*** 63.4% 60.1% 80.4% 52.2%***
Radio 16.4% 8.4%* 13.9% 9.8%* 6.1% 11.7% 5.4% 13.1%**
Newspaper 2.1% .3% 1.1% 1% .7% .9%
Face-to-Face 22.6% 22.9% 33.9% 17.6%** 26.8% 20.3% 7.4% 27.4%***
Telephone 6.2% 6.4%* 8.7% 5.6% 4.1% 6.8% 6.1% 6.4%
Immediate Info 73.3% 74.5% 80% 72.3% 78% 73.3% 68.2% 76.7%
Additional Info 43.2% 49.9% 62.6% 43.4%*** 41.5% 49.1% 44.6% 49.3%
n=146 n=345 n=115 n=376 n=82 n=409 n=148 n=343
Blue(B) = Blue Collar, White (W) = White Collar, Stdnt(S) =
Student, Oth(O) = Other
Table 6 Fire: Job, Means of Hearing & Pursuing Information (*p<.05,
**p<.01, ***p<.001)
Fifty-seven percent of respondents with White Collar occupations,
including professionals, educators and sales personnel, first heard about the
fire through the mass media while nearly 77% of respondents in other
occupational categories heard through the mass media (p<.001) (see Table 6).
That difference is extended to first hearing through television as 46% of
respondents in white collar occupations heard the news through television first
and just less than 68% of those in other occupations heard the news through
television (p<.001). Blue collar respondents, those working as laborers,
service personnel and secretarial positions, reflected the differences between
white collar workers and the rest of the sample. Nearly 55% of the blue collar
respondents initially heard about the fire through television and nearly 66% of
all others heard through this mass medium (p<.05). On the other hand, almost
82% of respondents not working outside of the home saw the fire first on
television in comparison to slightly more than 54% of all others combined
(p<.001).
Job categorization also shows relationships with hearing about the
fire first through the radio and in face-to-face contact. Blue collar workers
were twice as likely as the rest of the sample to hear about the fire through
the radio (p<.05) and those not working outside of home were half as likely as
the rest of the sample to hear the news first on the radio (p<.01). White
collar workers were nearly twice as likely to hear the fire news in a
face-to-face encounter as the rest of respondents (p<.001), while one-quarter of
those not working outside of the home heard in a face-to-face interaction when
compared to the rest of the sample (p<.001).
Differences in the pursuit of more information about the fire were
also found on the basis of two demographics. The average age of people who did
not seek additional information upon hearing the news was 47 and the average age
of people who did seek additional information was 41 and a half (p<.05). The
group of people who pursued more information upon hearing of the Monday
afternoon event averaged 22.4 years living in the Waco/McLennan County area
while the group who did not pursue additional input about the event averaged
29.7 years in the area. Active pursuit of information beyond the initial
hearing and possible immediate confirmation was pursued by almost 63% of the
respondents classified as white collar and just over 43% of all others
(p<.0001).
Fourth Hypothesis:
There are significant indicators that active information seeking was
engaged after both of these events near Waco. There is also evidence that the
level of this activity was significantly lower in the wake of the second event,
the fire that reduced the Mount Carmel complex to ash, than it was in the time
following the first, the shoot-out between A.T.F. agents and Branch Davidians.
Eighty-eight percent of the respondents to the first survey
immediately sought more information after the shoot-out and 74% of the
respondents to the second survey immediately sought more information after the
fire (p<.001). Actively pursuing information about the event beyond the initial
hearing and confirmation was conducted by almost 86% of respondents after the
Sunday event and just less than half of respondents after the episode-ending
Monday event (p<.001).
Shoot-Out Fire
Immediate Information 88% (n=500) 74.1% (n=491)***
Information Pursuit 85.6% (n=500) 47.9% (n=491)***
Imm. Info-Blue Collar 91.6% (n=143) 16.5% (n=146)***
Info. Purs.-Blue Collar 85.3% (n=143) 43.2% (n=146)***
Imm. Info-White Collar 87.6% (n=137) 80% (n=115)
Info. Purs.-White Collar 82.5% (n=137) 62.6% (n=115)***
Imm. Info-Student 86.8% (n=106) 78% (n=82)
Info. Purs.-Student 84% (n=106) 41.5% (n=82)***
Imm. Info-Other 85% (n=113) 68.2% (n=148)**
Info. Purs.-Other 91.2% (n=113) 44.6% (n=148)***
Table 7 Event, Job Category, and Information Seeking (**p<.01,
***p<.001)
There were two groups which did not show statistically different
immediate information seeking habits between the two events (see Table 7). Only
eight percent fewer white collar respondents did not immediately seek more
information upon hearing the news of the fire when compared to the shoot-out.
The decrease in immediate information seeking for students was just less than
nine percent. However, both of these demographic groups reflected the overall
change in active information pursuit between the instigating and culminating
events of the Branch Davidian/F.B.I. stand-off.
Conclusions
The comparison of the diffusion of news in the Waco/McLennan County
area about these two internationally observed events occurring live near Waco
helps to solidify aspects of our understanding of the news diffusion process
while calling into question others. There is a lack of support for the
hypothesis that a "calamitous" and/or salient event will be at least equally
initially diffused through interpersonal and mass-mediated sources. There is
some support for the importance of opportunity and location in the diffusion of
news about an event, though the second hypothesis must be rejected on the basis
of this data. There is some support for the lack of demographic influence on
the news diffusion process and subsequent information-seeking behaviors, though
the third hypothesis must also be rejected. There is strong support for the
hypothesis that the continuous coverage of a situation influences the news
diffusion process about a particular event as well as the information seeking
behaviors which follow the initial encounter.
There can be little doubt that both of these events were important
for people in the Waco/McLennan County area. Subsequent events have pointed to
their importance for the entire nation. There was enough news value in these
events and the activities which bridged them that the Mount Carmel complex
stayed in the news of the world for 51 days. The events were salient on the
basis of proximity as the Mount Carmel complex stands about ten miles from the
center of Waco. The events were salient because people from Waco were involved
in every aspect of the events surrounding the shoot-out, stand-off and fire.
Several respondents had been working in a law enforcement or medical capacity at
either or both of the events. The events were salient because Branch Davidians
have long been a part of Waco. They were formerly living within what is now the
city limits. The previous Mount Carmel is an actual hill which stands above
Lake Waco and the name Mount Carmel has been given to the sewage treatment plant
which can now be found there. Almost 40% of respondents in the two samples were
already aware of the Branch Davidians and nearly 20% visited some place related
to the shoot-out, stand-off and fire. The death and destruction which
surrounded the events could easily classify them as calamitous. Yet,
interpersonal communication did not have the hypothesized importance in relation
to the mass media in the diffusion of news about either of these events.
There appear to be a couple of reasons for the diminished importance
of interpersonal communication in relation to these events. First, it appears
that people have become more consumed with the mass media, television in
particular, in this decade. The television may serve a more central role in the
home in the 1990s than it did in the 1960s and therefore it will be the most
important first communicator of events, including events which are salient or
even calamitous.
Second is the fact that the shoot-out occurred and coverage began
late Sunday morning. At this time and on this day people are relatively
isolated. Some people will have been to church, which is generally isolated
from media sources, and they don't flip on the radio until they get in their car
to drive home. Some people will be sitting at home relaxing and possibly
sleeping in front of an afternoon of television. Some people will be out for a
Sunday excursion and some will be spending time with friends and family in
locations which may or may not be within ear or eyeshot of the mass media. It
appears to be easier to understand and explain the lack of interpersonal first
communication for the shoot-out on Sunday than for the fire on Monday.
Why is interpersonal communication also less important to the news
diffusion process on a weekday as well as a weekend? Situation and coverage
appear to be the reasons for the difference in the study of these particular
events. The second event came 50 days after the first. For the people in the
Waco/McLennan County area the seven weeks between events were filled with hourly
television updates and constant monitoring and discussion of the stand-off
through the media and in person. The morning news on the 19th of April news
reports were filled with the fact that the FBI had started to punch holes in the
complex buildings and that they were in the process of using gas to get the
people out. At least in Waco, people began to monitor events to see exactly
what the F.B.I. had in mind and what the Davidian response would be. Gantz
(1983) talked about people's desire to be on top of the latest breaking
developments in a story. This may be a factor in the process here. When the
fire broke out people had already been paying attention to the media and it was
not necessary for interpersonal contacts to take place in order to make people
aware of the situation.
In spite of the fact that the second hypothesis is rejected and
interpersonal sources were no more important during the week than they were on
the weekend, the data reported here continue to support the importance of
location in the diffusion of news about a particular event. Media use patterns
and availability cannot be discounted as they do play a role in how people get
news about a particular event. Consideration does, however, need to be given to
the nature of the news, the context of reception and the course of coverage
which has surrounded the event. This is supported in the data reported on the
third hypothesis.
Most of the demographic differences reported in this study can be
understood as indicators of location and media use as much as some aspect of the
specific demographic factor. Older people are less likely to be in the work
force and more likely to be at home. White collar workers will be working in
less media-saturated environments and will rely on interpersonal sources of
communication for breaking news. Blue collar workers are more likely to be in
environments where radios can be turned on and listened to.
In considering the results for all three of these hypotheses it must
also be remembered that the fire broke out during the lunch hour. This means
that more respondents could be in locations with access to media than they would
be at some other hour of the working day. During the lunch hour people will be
in their cars, at home or at lunch locations where media are available to
provide live news of the fire.
It seems clear from all of the data reported in relationship to the
first three hypotheses that the most important factor for news diffusion is the
location of the individual and the availability of media sources at that
location. Time and day are significant only in so far as they have an impact on
location. Demographics are not ultimately significant unless they relate in
some way to the location of the individual at the time the news breaks. Another
important factor in the diffusion process and people's subsequent search for
information appears to be the nature of the event and the coverage it receives
in the media.
The acceptance of the fourth hypothesis demonstrates that people in
the Waco/McLennan County area were saturated with information about the Branch
Davidians and the agents of the United States government. These central Texans
wanted to know when and how the stand-off ended but most of them no longer had a
need to actively pursue information related to the event. The longest stand-off
in the history of American law enforcement fatigued the parties directly
involved as well as the viewers at home. The anomaly of the white collar
workers and students seeking immediate information says something about the
importance of additional information to more educated individuals. However, the
subsequent fall-off in the active pursuit of related information for people in
both of these groups demonstrates that these more educated observers were also
saturated with the available data.
Haraldsen, Broaddason, Hedinsson, Kalkkinnen, and Svendsen (1987) in
their analysis of the diffusion of news about the assassination of Olof Palme in
countries which border Sweden concluded that "...relationships between diffusion
patterns and general media use patterns reflect distinctive properties of
individual episodes of news diffusion" (p. 182). This can be said about the
data reported here concerning news of the shoot-out and fire at the Branch
Davidian complex just outside of Waco, Texas. Additionally, it can be said that
the properties of the news event impacts the diffusion pattern and subsequent
media use.
Also examining the assassination of the Swedish Prime Minister and
considering the diffusion of news among journalists, Broddason, Cohen, Gantz &
Greenberg (1987) said "The rate, extent and mode of diffusion are results of an
interaction between time of day when the event occurs, the amount of coverage
the event generates, and the extent of its relevance among those being studied"
(p. 224). Relevance is a virtual given for the Waco events, but there is clear
evidence in this research to support the importance of time of occurrence and
amount of coverage in the diffusion process. In the Palme case the question was
one of enough coverage for someone to notice or care. In the case of the Branch
Davidians and the government of the United States the question is one of too
much coverage for anyone to continue to care. With the Branch Davidian
situations television found an opportunity to lurk at the scene and wait for
something new to happen and report. This process of waiting seems to have an
effect on news diffusion process and viewers' levels of interest in the
intricacies and details of the story.
An Additional Thought
DeFleur (1987) in his review of the news diffusion literature said
"Changing media technologies in the United States have led to changes in the way
people receive their first information about important news events" (p. 126).
This study supports this contention in the testing of these four hypotheses.
There appears to be an increasing importance of media sources in the diffusion
of even salient and/or calamitous events.
However, the analysis of these hypotheses did not give notice to a
relatively recent technological change in the history of news diffusion, the
advent of satellite news coverage and the 24-hour television news channel.
Respondents were queried in both surveys about their initial source for the news
of the events and where they turned for immediate additional information.
Included as a possible response was CNN, the only 24-hour news channel available
in Waco in 1993.
Slightly more than seven percent of the 296 respondents who first saw
the event on television saw it on CNN. However, more than 22% of the 362
respondents who immediately turned to television for more information turned to
CNN. Once again in the fire situation, just slightly more than four percent of
the 307 respondents who first heard about the event on television heard about it
on CNN, while more than 15% of those who turned to television for more
information turned to CNN. This drop in the referral rate is most certainly
explained by the drop in interest in additional information demonstrated by all
of the respondents to the second survey. This decrease in interest may also be
explained by the fact that people were not in environments on a Monday where CNN
was as easily accessible as it was on the Sunday 50 days before.
This level of reference to a satellite delivered news service is not
particularly impressive or tremendously interesting in the general sense, but it
is surprising when one considers that these references were made by people
living in close proximity to the site of the event. Local news was bypassed by
local people in a significant number of cases for reference to a service which
was initially using materials generated by the local stations and then brought
in its crew from some other part of the country to cover the on-going story.
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