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Subject: AEJ 95 WantaW CTM Memory decay and the agenda-setting effect
From: Elliott Parker <[log in to unmask]>
Reply-To:AEJMC Conference Papers <[log in to unmask]>
Date:Sat, 2 Mar 1996 07:13:48 EST
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Memory Decay and the Agenda-Setting Effect:
An Examination of Three News Media
 
        The mental processing of information obtained through the mass media is
 
          complex and elaborate.  Individuals attend to, process and retain a
wide
 
          variety of information in many different ways.  At the same time, the
mass
 
          media provide individuals with an endless stream of issue coverage.
Issues
 covered today replace issues covered yesterday, and individuals somehow
 
          must make sense of this coverage.
        The end result of this mental processing of issue information is the mass
 
          media's agenda-setting effect.  Coverage of issues in the mass media
gives
 
          individuals salience cues by which they judge the perceived importance
of
 
          these issues.
        Of concern here is how the rise and fall of coverage of issues on the mass
 media agenda is related to the public agenda, given the fact that
 
    individuals have a limited ability to retain information.  Obviously,
 
       individuals do not remember everything they read in the newspaper or
 
      everything they view on television, especially as new information becomes
 
          available to replace old information.  In other words, an individual's
 
        memory of information gained from the news media decays over time.
        Watt, Mazza and Snyder (1993) took memory decay into consideration in
 
        their investigation of the optimal agenda-setting time-lag.  Basing
their
 
          study on the memory decay curve first investigated by Ebbinghaus
(1885),
 
          Watt et al. reasoned that the effects of exposure to media messages
will
 
          decay exponentially over time.  Today's news will have a stronger
effect on
 individuals than yesterday's news, and much more influence than news
 
       covered days earlier.  They found that the memory decay time-lags
differed
 
          for different issues: from 30 days for Iran to 600 days for inflation.
        While the agenda-setting effect of various types of issues may decay
 
       differently over time, the influence of different media also may differ.
 
          For example, the influence of a visual medium, such as television, may
 
        decay more rapidly than a verbal medium, such as newspapers.  In
addition,
 
          a national medium, such as a national television newscast, may have a
 
       different decay time period than a local medium, such as a local
newscast.
        Thus, the present study will attempt to answer the following question:
 
         Given the fact that an individual's memory of information gained from
the
 
          mass media decays over time, what is the time period in which
          agenda-setting effects disappear for three different news media?  The
three
 media examined are local newscasts, national network newscasts and a local
 newspaper.  The answer to this question has several important
          implications.
        First, this study addresses an important topic for research in the general
 area of media effects.  Since agenda-setting is "social learning," how
 
         individuals learn about society is an important area of research.
        Second, this study has important ramifications for agenda-setting
 
    research.  The results may offer insights into how individuals process and
 
          retain information from different media.
        Third, finding the memory decay time-lag in agenda-setting is imperative
 
          for future researchers.  It would give researchers guidelines for
plotting
 
          future studies, especially for studies in which a specific type of
news
 
         medium is included.  In addition, the time-lag for agenda-setting
 
   investigations is taking on greater significance in light of recent
 
     attempts to employ complex statistical analyses, such as time-series
 
      analyses (Zhu, Watt, Snyder, Yan and Jiang 1993) and path analyses (Wanta
 
          and Hu, 1994).  As statistical analyses increase in complexity, the
 
     precision needed for measurements of media content is amplified.
 
Theoretical framework
        One of the most important considerations that agenda-setting researchers
 
          must address is what time frame they will employ in their analyses.
In
 
         other words, researchers must decide how far back in time they will go
to
 
          analyze media content prior to their field work.  As Winter and Eyal
(1981)
 note, "Since most of these studies measure and compare the media and
 
       public agendas over time, the temporal variable would appear to be
 
    crucial."
        Time-lag selection is especially important in agenda-setting research,
 
         since studies in this area investigate a causal hypothesis.  Chaffee
(1972)
 argues that a time-lag that is too short will not capture the causal
 
       relationship, but a time-lag that is too long is also a serious problem
 
         because "there is always the danger that a causal effect will
'dissipate'
 
          over time if the researcher waits too long to measure it."
        Salwen (1988) believes the time-lag question is important because
 
    researchers need to confine their measures of media coverage to as short a
 
          time period as possible because "any time discrepancies in the
measurement
 
          of the public agenda may affect the public's evaluations of issue
 
   salience."
        Despite the importance of a precise time frame, many discrepancies remain
 
          regarding the optimal time period to include in agenda-setting
studies.
 
          Studies have examined issues in time frames as short as one week
(Mullins,
 
          1977; Becker and McCombs, 1977), and as long as nine months (Sohn,
1978).
 
          Funkhouser (1973) compared media coverage across a decade with public
 
       concern in the same time period.
        Furthermore, even the few studies that have dealt specifically with the
 
          time-lag question have produced inconsistent results.  Table 1 lists
the
 
          results of five studies that specifically examined the optimal
time-lag in
 
          agenda-setting.  The optimal time-lags varied from a four-month period
 
        stretching from two to six months before the survey period (Stone and
 
       McCombs, 1981) to zero to two weeks before the survey period (Eaton,
1989).
 
        The varied results on the optimal agenda-setting time-lag, however, could
 
          be due to methodologies employed.  Stone and McCombs (1981) examined
two
 
          news magazines: Time and Newsweek.  Winter and Eyal (1981) studied one
 
        issue (civil rights) from 1954-1976 and front-page coverage in the New
York
 Times.  Salwen (1988) also looked at one issue (the environment) and
 
       coverage in the three largest daily newspapers serving Lansing, Michigan.
 
          Zucker (1978) investigated four issues across time and coverage on the
 
        three national networks.  Eaton (1989) examined complete agendas based
on
 
          bi-weekly data collected from three network broadcasts, four
newspapers and
 three newsmagazines combined.
        In addition, most of the research dealing with the time-lag question
 
       examined one issue, or a series of single issues, across time.  But given
 
          the large number of "Type I" studies (McCombs, 1981) -- which examine
an
 
          entire agenda of issues covered by the news media and an entire agenda
of
 
          issues perceived as important by members of the public -- an
investigation
 
          comparing complete media and public agendas is sorely needed.   This
type
 
          of examination allows for an investigation of the inter-relatedness of
i
 
         ssues, an important consideration given the recent research that
suggests
 
          that issues compete with each other in a "zero-sum" game (Zhu, 1992).
        Previous research also has noted the possibility of differences between
 
          the news media.  Several researchers (Tipton, Haney and Basehart,
1975;
 
         McClure and Patterson, 1976) have found that newspapers correlate
better
 
          than television with voter agendas.   Shaw and McCombs (1977) argue
that
 
          television news might have a stronger short-term impact, but newspaper
 
        content may have a more consistent effect across longer periods of time.
 
          Zucker (1978), on the other hand, argues that at the national level,
the
 
          public may be more influenced by the three networks' newscasts than by
 
        newspapers because of television's accessibility.
        A number of researchers also have suggested that national news media, to a
 large degree, set the agenda of issues covered by local media.  Breed
 
        (1955), for example, suggests that news flows downward from the elite
 
       dailies.  In other words, small dailies learn coverage patterns from
larger
 newspapers.
        Crouse (1972) similarly argues that the elite media, such as the New York
 
          Times, influence the national agenda. Front-page coverage in the New
York
 
          Times, he concludes, means prominent coverage in every other paper in
 
       America.
        Thus, if smaller, more localized media react to the national media, the
 
          national media may have a more immediate effect on the public.  In
other
 
          words, if local media follow national media coverage, issues in the
local
 
          press will take longer to reach the general public than ones in the
 
     national or regional media -- and consequently, will take longer to
 
     influence the public agenda.  However, since the national media may first
 
          influence local media and then the public, the national media may show
a
 
          slower decay in effect over time.
        In addition, national media also devote more coverage to international and
 national issues than do local media.  Indeed, the traditional
          agenda-setting question, which was employed here, asks respondents
"What is
 the number one problem facing our country today?"  Given that this
 
     question addresses a national agenda, national media should have a stronger
 agenda-setting effect than local media, which must devote significant
 
        coverage to issues of only local concern.  As a result, individuals may
 
         demonstrate a slower memory decay for national issues covered by the
 
      national media.
        Added to the mix of factors surrounding the time-lag question is the role
 
          of memory decay.  Individuals do not remember equally as well media
content
 across several days.  Thus, the time period when agenda-setting effects
 
          disappear is as important to researchers as a precise optimal
time-lag.  In
 other words, at what point do individuals fail to recall the issue
 
     information transmitted by the news media and accumulated in media
 
    consumers' memories?
        The study of memory and its decay dates back to before the turn of the
 
         century.  In a series of experiments conducted by Ebbinghaus (1885),
lists
 
          of words were learned and relearned on successive days.  The amounts
of
 
         time necessary for successful learning each day were noted and later
 
      compared to each other in order to discuss the relationship between
 
     information retention and time.  From the resulting graph, Ebbinghaus --
 
          and subsequent researchers who further upheld his findings --
concluded
 
         that the "main characteristic (of human memory decay) is a rapid fall
 
       immediately after learning and a gradual flattening out as the interval
is
 
          prolonged.  Forgetting becomes more and more gradual as time advances
 
       (Woodworth and Schlosberg, 1954, p. 726)."  Further, when Ebbinghaus
 
      plotted his data against the logarithm of time, he observed that
"retention
 declines approximately in proportion to the log of time (Woodworth and
 
         Schlosberg, 1954, p. 726)."
        Watt, Mazza and Snyder (1993) use this exponential expression of memory
 
          decay over time when analyzing three issues presented in television
 
     newscasts and their agenda-setting effects.  In order to account for past
 
          coverage of an issue in addition to current stories, Watt et al.
modified
 
          the Ebbinghaus curve. The resulting formula analyzes memory decay of
all
 
          issue coverage and its effect on audience issue salience, while also
 
      accounting for issue prominence (i.e., where it was placed within the
 
       newscasts) and issue obtrusiveness (i.e., personal experience with an
issue
 by audience members).
        In addition to altering the Ebbinghaus curve, Watt et al. use the concept
 
          of a "time window" to account for past, accumulated coverage and
current
 
          news stories about an issue.  These time windows, or data sampling
periods
 
          of variable length, are used to determine "how long ... people
continue to
 
          be affected by past stories in the media (Watt et al., 1993, p. 409)."
As
 
          with Ebbinghaus' memory loss hypothesis, all issue coverage and
salience
 
          within the time window should proportionately decay.  Given the ma
 
   thematical fact that an exponential decay never reaches zero, Watt et al.
 
          assume an eventual memory loss of 95 percent as the maximum loss of
story
 
          impact in each time window.  Their results show that different issues
show
 
          their strongest agenda-setting correlations when analyzed within
different
 
          time windows.  Their memory decay time windows ranged from 12-60 days
for
 
          Iran to 600 days for inflation.
        Our study builds upon the groundwork laid by Watt et al. (1993).  Instead
 
          of examining individual issues in time windows of up to two years,
however,
 the present study investigates three different news media for shorter time
 frames.  Logically, a news report should not have an influence on
 
    individuals 600 days later -- as found by Watt et al.  Our study examines
 
          daily coverage for six months for two news media and for 50 days for a
 
        third.
 
Method
        A telephone survey was conducted in a U.S. city in February 1994.  The
 
         area surveyed has a population of approximately 200,000 and is home to
a
 
          large state university.  Interviewers were students at this
university.
 
          The response rate was 60 percent.
        The public agenda was determined by responses to the traditional
 
   agenda-setting question: "What is the number one problem facing our country
 today?"  The 12 issues that were mentioned most often by respondents were
 
          included in the study.  The percentage of respondents who mentioned
each
 
          issue as being the most important problem determined where the issues
 
       ranked on the public agenda.  The issues and the percentage of
respondents
 
          naming them as the number one problem facing our country are listed in
 
        Table 2.
        Coverage of the 12 issues were then examined in three news media: the
 
        national broadcasts of ABC World News Tonight, the local broadcasts of
the
 
          evening news for the station with the highest ratings in the area
surveyed,
 and a local morning daily newspaper serving the area.  The ABC broadcasts
 
          were coded through the Vanderbilt Television News Abstracts for the
six
 
         months preceding the first day of our survey.  In a few cases, always
on
 
          either a Saturday or Sunday, ABC did not have a national broadcast.
To
 
         maintain consistent time intervals, a broadcast of either CBS or NBC
was
 
          coded on these days.  The local television broadcasts were coded
through
 
          station logs for the 50 days preceding the first day of the survey.
Only
 
          50 days of logs were available for this study.  Finally, the front
pages of
 the main news section were coded for the local daily newspaper for the six
 months preceding the first day of our survey.  Intercoder reliability
 
        using Scott's pi averaged .89.
        Each news story was weighted according to the distance in time from the
 
          date of broadcast to the start of the survey period.  The weights were
 
        determined by the memory decay curve proposed by Ebbinghaus (1885).
(For a
 more detailed description of the memory curve developed by Ebbinghaus, see
 Woodworth and Schlosberg, 1954).
        The weights are based on two main assumptions:
        1. Individuals eventually retain only about five percent of all knowledge
 
          that they learn.  In other words, 95 percent of an individual's memory
 
        decays.
        2. Memory decay is not linear.  That is, memory decays rapidly at first,
 
          then slows.
        The effects of the accumulated weighted coverage were then examined for
 
          each day of the study.  For example, for Day 1, the day before the
 
    beginning of the survey period, the coverage of issues televised on that
 
          day was weighted by .05, again, under the assumption that memory
decays 95
 
          percent.  For Day 2, the coverage of the day before the survey was
weighted
 by .10 and coverage of two days before the survey was weighted by .05.
 
          These weighted scores were then summed.  For Day 3, weights ranged
from .12
 to .08 to .05.  Each subsequent day was weighted similarly, so that
 
      coverage the farthest from the survey period was weighted by .05 and the
 
          other dates were weighted based on the Ebbinghaus curve.  Thus, the
 
     coverage closest to our survey period received a heavier weight than
 
      coverage farther back in time.  Indeed, if Ebbinghaus' memory decay curve
 
          is correct, information gained recently should be recalled more
efficiently
 than older information and thus  should have a stronger agenda-setting
 
         effect on individuals.
        Spearman rank-order correlations were then computed examining the
 
    relationships between the accumulated weighted coverage of the 12 issues
 
          for each day in our analysis and the public agenda.  In other words,
in the
 case of ABC newscasts, Spearman rhos examined the agenda-setting effect on
 the public for time-lags ranging from one day before our survey period to
 
          180 days before our survey period.  If agenda-setting effects are most
 
        pronounced after one day of coverage, for example, the Spearman rho for
one
 day of coverage and the public agenda will be the largest in the study.
        The Spearman rhos also will suggest where the public's memory decay
 
      occurs.  If the Spearman rhos are no longer statistically significant
after
 30 days, for example, the results will suggest that the public's memory of
 issue information decays after 30 days.
 
Methodological strengths and weaknesses
        Several methodological aspects are important here.
        First, the methodology here employs an entire agenda of issues.  This was
 
          the presupposition underscoring the original agenda-setting hypothesis
--
 
          that an "agenda" of issues in the news media would influence an
"agenda" of
 issues that the public perceives as important.  Thus, this analysis
 
      returns to the area proposed in the original agenda-setting hypothesis.
        Second, the analysis allows for the examination of several news media.
 
          Logically, information from different media will be processed
differently
 
          among individuals.  The passive processing of visual information from
 
       television should produce results that are different from the active
 
      processing of verbal information from newspapers.  Local information also
 
          should be processed differently than national information.
        Third, the analysis allows for the examination of several memory decay
 
         time lags.  In other words, our analysis allows us to pinpoint to the
day
 
          when the agenda-setting effect eventually decays in our study -- from
one
 
          day to 180 days.
        The major shortcoming of this study is that the analysis, by design, uses
 
          aggregate data -- that is, data from an entire "public" rather than
from
 
          individuals.  Thus, the memory decay examined here is not an
individual's
 
          decay, but rather a decay from an entire population of individuals.
 
      Indeed, mental processes take place within individuals, not within a mass
 
          of individuals.  However, agenda-setting is a societal effect (see
Lowery
 
          and DeFleur, 1988).  Thus, memory decay, while taking place within
indivi
 
          duals, should be apparent in an analysis of a population of
individuals in
 
          which this process is occurring.
 
Results
        Spearman rank-order correlation coefficients for the three news media in
 
          our study are listed in Tables 3 to 6 and are plotted in Figures 1 to
4.
        As Figure 1 and Table 3 detail, the ABC news broadcasts did not produce
 
          any statistically significant Spearman rhos for the 12 issues in our
study.
  In other words, ABC news apparently did not have an agenda-setting effect
 on the respondents in our study.  This was contrary to what we initially
 
          believed.  We originally thought that national media would best match
the
 
          public agenda because the agenda-setting question asks what the
respondent
 
          believes is the most important problem facing "our country" today.
The
 
         local media's concentration on local issues, we thought, would lessen
their
 agenda-setting effect.
        A secondary analysis of our data revealed that one issue -- international
 
          problems -- received an extensive amount of coverage, but ranked low
on the
 public agenda (a tie for tenth).  Indeed, the nature of national network
 
          news implies that the networks provide extensive coverage of news
around
 
          the world, which apparently did not catch the attention of respondents
in
 
          our study.
        Despite the quandary caused by the issue of international problems,
 
      several trends are apparent.  As Figure 1 and Table 3 show, the Spearman
 
          rank-order correlations for the national news broadcasts of ABC
reached one
 of their highest levels at Day 4 and Day 5 (r = .32), before decreasing.
 
          Besides the first few days of the study, the lowest rho occurred after
14
 
          days.  The rhos showed a large increase again at Day 38 ( r = .36) and
 
        reached their peak at Day 62 (r = .39).  They remained at the r = .39
level
 until Day 92, when they dropped to r = .36 and remained at this point
 
        until the end of the study (Day 180).
        To further examine the network television news-public relationship and to
 
          guard against the results of our study being suppressed because of
coverage
 patterns for this one issue, we re-analyzed the data after dropping
 
      international problems from the analysis.  The results of the 11 remaining
 
          issues mirrored the results of the original 12, except for the fact
that
 
          statistically significant findings resulted at several points.
        As Figure 2 and Table 4 show, the Spearman rhos reached statistical
 
      significance after only four days (r = .63), and dropped below the p < .05
 
          level of statistical significance after Day 6.  The lowest rho was
again at
 Day 14 (r = .41).  The rhos reached statistical significance again at Day
 
          38 (r = .65) and reached their peak at Day 62 (r = .68), before
decreasing
 
          slightly at Day 92.
        Figure 3 and Table 5 detail the results of the Spearman rhos for local
 
         television broadcasts.  The rhos show several differences from the rhos
for
 national news.  Here, the Spearman rhos reached statistical significance
 
          at Day 3 (r = .63) and peaked at Day 6 and Day 7 (r = .67).  The rhos
then
 
          decreased slightly, dropping below the level of statistical
significance at
 Day 11.  The rhos again reached statistical significance from Day 15 to
 
          Day 17 and again at Day 20.  All of the other rhos were not
statistically
 
          significant at the p < .05 level.  In addition, the rhos were
unchanged
 
         from Day 42 through the end of our study period at Day 50 (r = .51).
        The Spearman rhos again were different for the local newspaper.  As Figure
 4 and Table 6 show, the rhos reached statistical significance at Day 8 (r
 
          = .62).  The rhos reached significance at the p < .01 level at Day 10
(r =
 
          .71), and peaked at both Day 15 and Day 18 (r = .81).  The rhos
dropped
 
         back to the p < .05 level at Day 28 (r = .67), before leveling off at
Day
 
          34 through Day 59 (.61).  The rhos were no longer statistically
significant
 at Day 84 (r = .54).  The rhos were unchanged from Day 88 through the end
 
          of our study (r = .51).
 
Discussion
        The purpose of this study was to examine how the agenda-setting effect
 
         dissipates over time as individuals' memory of issue information
decays.
 
          The findings are summarized in Table 7.  The results show how
differently
 
          memory decay affects the agenda-setting process for the three news
media.
        A few similarities between the three media did emerge.  First,
 
 agenda-setting effects were evident early for all three media.  Effects
 
         appeared after four days for national network news (though only after
the
 
          issue of international problems was dropped from the analysis), after
six
 
          days for local news and after eight days for the local newspaper.
        Second, the Spearman rank-order correlations showing agenda-setting
 
      effects dropped below statistically significant levels relatively quickly
 
          for all three news media.  The rhos were no longer statistically
 
  significant after six days for ABC news and after 11 days for local
 
     newscasts.  While the rhos for the local newspaper were statistically
 
       significant for a much longer time -- until Day 85 -- the rhos did drop
 
         below the p < .01 level at Day 28.  Thus, memory of issue information
for
 
          local newspapers did decay slightly after four weeks.
        All of these results seem logical on the surface.  Since individuals'
 
        long-term memory is limited, a memory decay of a few weeks after an
initial
 agenda-setting effect of four to eight days appears plausible.
        However, the agenda-setting effects, as demonstrated by the Spearman
 
       rank-order correlations, showed several differences for the three news
 
        media.  Especially evident were differences in long-term memory decay
 
       between the three news media examined here.
        The agenda-setting effect for the local newspaper, for example, first
 
        appeared on Day 8 and peaked at Day 15 and Day 18.  The agenda-setting
 
        effect decayed slightly at Day 28, and did not completely disappear
until
 
          Day 85.  Thus, the optimal time-lag for agenda-setting effects to
occur was
 longer for the local newspaper than for either local or national
 
   newscasts.  Moreover, the local newspaper produced the strongest Spearman
 
          rank-order correlation in the study (r = .81), indicating that in our
 
       study, newspapers had a more powerful agenda-setting effect than
 
  television, as both Tipton, Haney and Basehart (1975) and McClure and
 
       Patterson (1976) found.
        The agenda-setting effect also decayed much more gradually for the local
 
          newspaper, since the agenda-setting effect for both local and national
 
        broadcasts decayed only a short time after an early initial effect.
This
 
          finding supports the argument of Shaw and McCombs (1977) that
television
 
          news has a stronger short-term impact, but that newspapers have an
effect
 
          across longer periods of time.
        The agenda-setting effect decayed at much different rates for both local
 
          and national newscasts.  The agenda-setting effect for local news
 
   broadcasts disappeared in Day 11, though there was a minor effect for Days
 
          15-17 and 20.  The agenda-setting effect disappeared completely by Day
21.
 For national news, the agenda-setting effect was not evident at all, until
 the issue of international problems was removed from the study.  Then, the
 agenda-setting effect was evident for Days 4 and 5, but decayed by Day 6.
 However, the agenda-setting effect re-emerged at Day 38, then remained
 
         through the end of our study period, 180 days in all.
        Two important points should be made about the results for the national
 
         newscasts.  First, while an agenda-setting effect occurred early (Day 4
and
 5), a consistent agenda-setting effect didn't appear until Day 38, or more
 than five weeks before the survey period.  Thus, the accumulated coverage
 
          of five weeks led to the most consistent agenda-setting effect for the
ABC
 
          newscast.  In addition, the optimal time-lag for the strongest
          agenda-setting effects -- when memory decay was accounted for -- was
 
      between 62 and 92 days, or about two to three months before the survey
 
        period.
        Second, individuals' memory decay for national news broadcasts was very
 
          gradual.  In fact, our findings suggest that the public's long-term
memory
 
          decay of issue information went beyond the six months of news coverage
 
        examined in the present study.
        One other possible explanation about the memory decay time period for the
 
          national network news should be noted:  Perhaps agenda-setting effects
 
        really peaked at between four and five days, and memory of the issues
 
       decayed at Day 6.  The consistent agenda-setting effect found after Day
38,
 then, may  be due to the fact that coverage patterns finally stabilized
 
          here.  Indeed, the media agenda changed little from Day 38 to Day 62
and
 
          did not change at all from Day 62 through Day 92 and from Day 92
through Da
 
          y 180.  It seems eminently logical that individuals' abilities to
recall
 
          news coverage of issues should not last for two to three months.  One
week
 
          seems like a more logical time period for agenda-setting effects to
occur,
 
          and two weeks seems like a logical time period for the memory of issue
 
        information to decay.
        The results of local television news coverage, meanwhile, appear more
 
        easily decipherable.  Here, the optimal time-lag for the strongest
 
    agenda-setting effects to occur was six to seven days -- or about one week.
  The memory decay of issue information followed one week later -- with the
 Spearman rank-order correlations reaching one of their lowest points on
 
          Day 14. (when r = .46).  While agenda-setting effects again reached
 
     statistical significance on Day 15, none of the Spearman rhos after Day 21
 
          were statistically significant.
        Thus, taken as a whole, both local and national television news media and
 
          the local newspaper produced agenda-setting effects in a relatively
short
 
          time before our survey period.  The memory of the issue information
gained
 
          by respondents in our study also decayed in a relatively short time --
much
 shorter than the Watt et al. (1993) study found.
        The long-term memory decay of agenda-setting effects, however, showed a
 
          wide discrepancy between the results of the local and national
newscasts.
 
          This discrepancy, as with the lack of agenda-setting effects found for
ABC
 
          news, again could be due to the types of coverage patterns of national
 
        news.  Besides the extensive coverage of international news, national
 
       network news also may be more consistent in its coverage of all national
 
          issues, while local news covers a wider range of issues.  Since
network new
 
          s covers a more consistent agenda of issues, this agenda eventually
reaches
 a point where it stagnates -- where issues no longer go up or down on the
 
          agenda.  In other words, the differences between issue ranks reaches a
 
        stage where only a major event that receives a staggering amount of
 
     coverage can more an issue up past another issue. This point of stagnation
 
          may have occurred after two to three months of our study.
        Local news, on the other hand, may demonstrate more flexibility in its
 
         coverage of issues.  Thus, the agenda of issues covered on local
newscasts
 
          may not stagnate as the agenda for national news might.
        Overall, it should be noted that the findings here should be tempered.
 
         Historical factors obviously could cause time-lag and memory decay
 
    differences at any given time.  As Stone and McCombs (1981) conclude, "It
 
          cannot be assumed that a neat pattern will be established in any
single
 
         specific week during which the content of the news media will yield the
 
         same, or a highly similar, pattern of salient issues corresponding to
the
 
          public agenda."  The optimal time-lags and memory decay time periods
found
 
          here, then, could be unique to the present study.
        Regardless, the results here point to a potential fruitful area for future
 research.  Researchers should examine why agenda-setting effects seem to
 
          drop off after a certain amount of time.  Apparently, mental
processing of
 
          the news may be limited by time.  As Zucker (1978) concluded, old news
may
 
          be forgotten.  Mental processing of the news obviously is very
complex.
        Overall, it is hoped that the findings here will offer future
          agenda-setting researchers a guide to follow when plotting time-lags
 
      between survey periods and media coverage.  The results demonstrate that
 
          memory decay can vary across different media, and these differences
should
 
          be noted when determining time frames for agenda-setting studies.
Greater
 
          precision in measuring time-lags and memory decay time periods is
 
   imperative for future agenda-setting research.
 
 
Table 1.  Previous studies examining the optimal time-lag for
          agenda-setting effects to occur.
 
Researchers                     News media                      Optimal time-lag
 
Eaton (1989)                    ABC, NBC, CBS,                  zero to two weeks
                                New York Times,
                                Los Angeles Times,
                                Chicago Tribune,
                                Wall Street Journal,
                                Time, Newsweek, U.S.
                                News & World Reports
 
Stone and                       Time and                                four-month period
McCombs (1981)          Newsweek                                stretching from two
                                                                        to six months before
                                                                        the survey period
 
 
Salwen (1988)           Three largest                   five to seven weeks
                                dailies serving
                                Lansing, Mich.
 
Winter and                      New York Times                  four-to-six week
Eyal (1981)                                                             period immediately
                                                                        prior to fieldwork
 
Zucker (1978)           Three national                  two to six weeks
                                networks                                before the survey
                                                                        period
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2.  Responses to "most important problem" question.
 
Issue                                           Percent naming it
                                                number one problem
 
1. Crime                                                40.5
2. Health care                                  13.5
3. Economy                                              12.2
4. Dissatisfaction with government                6.3
5. Social problems                                        5.4
6. Budget deficit                                         5.0
7. Poverty/homelessness                           4.5
8. Morality                                               3.6
9. Human rights                                   2.7
10. (t) International problems                    2.3
10. (t) Drug abuse                                        2.3
12. AIDS                                                  1.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 7.  Optimal time-lags and memory decay time periods for three news
 
          media.
 
Medium                          Optimal                 Memory decay
                                        time-lags                       time periods
 
National network                        4-5 days &                      14 days &
news broadcast                  62-91 days                      beyond 180 days
 
 
Local news                              6-7 days                        14 days &
broadcast                                                               21 days
 
 
Local                                   15 & 18 days                    28 days &
newspaper                                                               84 days
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
References
 
 
Becker, Lee B. and McCombs, Maxwell E. (1977), "U.S. Primary Politics and
 
          Public Opinion: The Role of the Press in Determining Voter Reactions,"
 
        paper presented to the International Communication Association annual
 
       conference, Berlin, W. Germany.
 
Breed, Warren (1955), "Newspaper Opinion Leaders and the Process of
 
     Standardization," Journalism Quarterly,, 32:277-284, 328.
 
Chaffee, Steven H. (1972), "Longitudinal Designs for Communication
 
    Research: Cross-Lagged Correlations," paper presented to the Association
 
          for Education in Journalism annual conference, Carbondale, Ill.
 
Crouse, Timothy (1972), The Boys on the Bus, New York, Random House.
 
Eaton, Howard (1989), "Agenda-Setting With Bi-weekly Data on Content of
 
         Three National Media," Journalism Quarterly, 66:942-948, 959.
 
Ebbinghaus (1885), Hermann. Uber das Gedachtnis. Leipzig: Dunker and
 
      Humblot.
 
Funkhouser, G. Ray (1973), "The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study
 in the Dynamics of Public Opinion," Public Opinion Quarterly, 37:62-75.
 
Lowery, Shearon A., and DeFleur, Melvin L. (1988), Milestones in Mass
 
       Communication Research, second edition.  New York: Longman.
 
McClure, Robert D. and Patterson, Thomas E. (1976), "Print vs. Network
 
        News," Journal of Communication, 26:23-28.
 
McCombs, Maxwell E. (1981), "The Agenda-Setting Approach." In Dan D. Nimmo
 
          and Keith R. Sanders, K.R., (eds.) Handbook of Political
Communication,
 
         Beverly Hills, CA, Sage.
 
Mullins, L. Edward (1977), "Agenda-Setting and the Young Voter," In Donald
 
          L. Shaw and Maxwell E.  McCombs (eds.), The Emergence of American
Political
 Issues: The  Agenda-Setting Function of the Press, St. Paul: West
 
    Publishing, pp.  133-148.
 
Salwen, Michael B. (1988), "Effects of Accumulation of Coverage on Issue
 
          Salience in Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 65:100-106.
 
Shaw, Donald L. and McCombs, Maxwell E. (1977), The Emergence of American
 
          Political Issues: The Agenda-Setting  Function of the Press, St. Paul,
West
 Publishing.
 
Sohn, Ardyth Broadrick (1978), "A Longitudinal Analysis of Local
 
  Non-Political Agenda-Setting Effects," Journalism Quarterly, 55:325-333.
 
Stone, Gerald C. and McCombs, Maxwell E. (1981), "Tracing the Time Lag in
 
          Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 58:51-55.
 
Tipton, Leonard; Haney, Roger D. and Baseheart, John R. (1975), "Media
 
        Agenda-Setting in City and State Election Campaigns," Journalism
Quarterly,
 52:15-22.
 
Wanta, Wayne, and Hu, Yu-Wei (1994), "The Effects of Credibility, Reliance,
 and Exposure on Media Agenda-Setting: A Path Analysis Model,' Journalism
 
          Quarterly., 71:90-98.
 
Watt, James H.: Mazza, M.; and Snyder, L.B. (1993), "Agenda-Setting Effects
 of Television News Coverage and the Memory Decay Curve," Communication
 
         Research, 20:408-435.
 
Weaver, David H.; Graber, Doris A.; McCombs, Maxwell E. and Eyal, Chaim H.
 
          (1981), Media Agenda-Setting in a Presidential Election: Issues,
Images and
 Interest, New York, Praeger Publishers.
 
Winter, James P. and Eyal, Chaim H. (1981), "Agenda-Setting for the Civil
 
          Rights Issue," Public Opinion Quarterly, 45:376-383.
 
Woodworth, Robert S. and Schlosberg, Harold (1954), Experimental Psychology
 
          , revised edition.  New York: Henry Holt & Company.
 
Zhu, Jian-Hua (1992), "Issue Competition and Attention Distraction: A
 
       Zero-Sum Theory of Agenda-Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 69:825-836.
 
Zhu, Jian-Hua; Watt, James H.; Snyder, Leslie B.; Yan, Jingtao; and Jiang,
 
          Yansong (1993), "Public Issue Priority Formation: Media Agenda-Setting
and
 
          Social Interaction," Journal of Communication, 43:8-29
 
Zucker, Harold G. (1978), "The Variable Nature of News Media Influence," in
 B.D. Ruben (ed.) Communication Yearbook No. 2, New Brunswick, Transaction
 
          Books, pp. 225-245.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Memory Decay and the Agenda-Setting Effect:
An Examination of Three News Media
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
By Wayne Wanta
School of Journalism and Communication
1275 University of Oregon
Eugene, OR  97403-1275
(503) 346-3752
[log in to unmask]
 
 
and Melissa J. Roy
School of Journalism and Communication
1275 University of Oregon
Eugene, OR  97403-1275
 
 
 
 
**Manuscript submitted to the Communication Theory & Methodology Division
 
          for consideration of presentation at the Association for Education in
 
       Journalism and Mass Communication annual convention, Washington, D.C.
 
 
**Wayne Wanta is an assistant professor and Melissa Roy is a graduate
 
       student in the School of Journalism and Communication at the University
of
 
          Oregon.
 
 
 
 
 Memory Decay and the Agenda-Setting Effect:
An Examination of Three News Media
 
 
 
Abstract
 
 
 
 
        This study examined how individuals' memory of information about issues
 
          covered in three news media decays over time.  Local newscasts,
national
 
          network newscasts and local newspaper coverage showed agenda-setting
 
      effects in a relatively short time (four to eight days), but the effect
 
         decayed shortly thereafter (14 to 28 days).  The results also suggest
that
 
          the agenda-setting effect is much stronger and memory decay is much
more
 
          gradual for the local newspaper.

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