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The making of the 2004 US President:
A matter of ethnic differences, faith or political identification?

Raiza A. Rehkoff
Ph.D. Student- Public Communication
Georgia State University
  P.O. Box 4000
Atlanta, Georgia 30302-4000
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404-245.8251


Paper submitted for consideration to the special "Ethnic and Minority 
Media" competition of the Mass Communication & Society Division 
and/or the Minorities and Communication Division of the AEJM in San 
Antonio, August 2005.





Abstract
During election years, religion and politics have to be seen not as 
separate but interrelated factors, especially when parties politicize 
issues at the intersection of religion and politics like gay 
marriages, abortion, Iraqi invasion and death penalty.  Building on 
social identity theory, this study examines religious, political 
identities and news media exposure as predictors for presidential 
voting intentions and attitudes toward politicized issues among 
African American and non-African American new voters during the 2004 
presidential election.





The author wishes to thank Dr. Cynthia Hoffner for her guidance and 
helpful comments.





KEYWORDS: Presidential election, politics, party affiliation, 
religion, social identity, ethnicity, media, presidential debates.
	Ethnicity and Elections	5
The making of the 2004 US President:
A matter of ethnic differences, faith or political identification?

During election years, scholars are particularly interested on 
examination of politics, media exposure and the many factors 
influencing final voting. As the 2004 Presidential election campaign 
arrived at its climax, the emergence of religion and partisanship as 
important factors in shaping presidential voting behaviors among new 
voters provided an interesting context to examine potential 
differences that could emerge between African American and 
non-African American new voters.  More so, if one considers that 
nearly 85% of American voters rated religion as an important factor 
in their lives, which resonates with post election pollsters 
revealing that a considerable amount of US voters ranked moral values 
as their number one priority to ultimately determine who lives in the 
White House for the next four years.[1]
The state of Georgia emerged as an interesting case study when 
considering the unique factors surrounding voting behaviors in this 
Southeastern state. First, as local press revealed there was a 
considerable increased in the amount of new voters who registered 
early on nationwide.  Specifically, it was reported that nearly 300 
thousand new voters registered to participate in the 2004 election 
(Campos, 2004; Jones, 2004). Second, Georgia residents voted on the 
approval of a US constitutional amendment banning gay marriages and 
according to some figures, more than 60% of likely Georgia voters 
intended to vote in favor of the amendment banning marriage between 
homosexual couples (Galloway, 2004). In fact, the near to record 
figures on voters registration for this election seemed to be related 
to voters' desires to express their position on some hot 
issues.  Third, the population of the city of Atlanta is very diverse 
offering an interesting representation of minority groups, 
specifically African Americans. As the latest census results 
revealed, 61% of Atlanta's population is African American, 5% is 
Hispanic and 2% is Asian.[2]
Considering then the unique conditions under which new voters in 
Georgia voted on the 2004 election and the scenario where religion 
and politics provided the battleground for the presidential election, 
an empirical study examining ethnic differences that emerged as a 
result of new voters' identification with religious groups or 
political parties, and the influence of these identities on 
presidential voting intentions is in order.  However, this 
examination would be only half complete if one fails to consider the 
impact of the news media coverage of the political race.  While 
people prepared for November 2, 2004, news media bombarded voters 
with countless messages reproducing, gathering and some times even 
providing voters with unsolicited interpretation of the many 
political aspects of the presidential campaigns.
This study contributes to the recent resurgence of interest in 
religion, politics and ethnic differences by making three significant 
innovations. First, it uses composite of variables for assessing 
political and religious identity. Second, the vast majority of 
studies examining religion and politics relied on data gathered for 
general social surveys whereas; data used for this study was gathered 
specifically for the purposes of this study right prior to the 
election. Thirdly, this study considers individual candidates or 
voting intentions specifically from the 2004 election.  Thus, the 
purpose of this study is two-fold. First, using social identity 
theory as a framework, this research examines political identity, 
religious identity and other political and religious variables as 
potential predictors for presidential voting intentions among new 
voters in Georgia during the 2004 election while considering group 
ethnic differences, specifically African Americans and non-African 
Americans.  While there is much speculation and some evidence for the 
impact of media messages on voters, this study further investigates 
the role exposure to the presidential debates on presidential voting 
among new Georgia voters.  Also, since most of the major issues under 
the political debate (i.e., abortion,  gay marriage, Iraq, death 
penalty), this study explores religious and political identity as 
possible factors predicting new Georgia voters' attitudes toward 
these issues. Thus, a brief description of social identity theory is 
offered first, and then the literature related to (a) politics and 
religion and b) politics and news media is reviewed.
Theoretical Framework
Studying identity is crucial if researchers are interested in 
explaining and predicting individuals' behaviors. Likewise, at the 
core of studying identity is the examination of series of complex 
processes that guide the individual's behaviors in the social world 
and therefore, scholars agree that people's behaviors can be 
predicted through examination of identities and people's affiliation 
or membership to particular groups. In essence, social identity 
theory integrates the self, group attitudes and social influence, so 
this theory is essentially a theory of the social self where the 
notion of a self-identity, defined by group membership and the 
evaluations and emotions attached to this membership, is pivotal 
(Turner, 1999).
Turner (1999) conceptualized social identity as the combination of 
aspects defining a person's self concept based on their group 
memberships, so social identity is how individuals define themselves 
in terms of some social group membership with the associated value 
connotations and emotional significance those memberships implied. 
Scholars have studied social identity as related to media stereotypes 
or group identification (Karasawa, 1991; Terry, Hogg & McKimmie, 
2000) and specifically in the context of American partisanship 
(Greene, 2004). More recently, Greene (2004) looked at party 
identification among a sample of Ohio voters and found that partisan 
social identity proved to be a significant predictor of political 
party ratings, ideology and party activity. Greene concluded that 
social identity is a fundamental aspect of American partisanship, 
which could lead to better prediction and understanding of related 
political attitudes and behaviors.
This idea of 'group membership' implies that individuals will 
experience a redefinition of the self in terms of a shared social 
identity. Thus, it seems that in salient social identity the 
depersonalization of the self will also imply depersonalizing self 
interests and transforming those into collective "group 
interests".  In addition, each individual takes different roles 
throughout his/her life (i.e., as a wife, as a mother, as a student, 
as a teacher), and different identities become active depending upon 
the context, situations and as relevant stimuli for 
self-categorization change. More recently, in an attempt to further 
explain the categorization process involved in social identity 
theory, Turner and colleagues developed self-categorization theory 
(Turner, 1999; Turner, Hogg, Oakes, Reicher, & Wetherell, 1987).
Self-categorization.  In brief, self-categorization is an extension 
of social identity theory that focuses more specifically on the role 
of the categorization process and implies that when individuals 
perceive themselves as part of a group, the self is then cognitively 
redefined in terms of their group membership (Turner, 
1999).  Self-categorization theory advocates that there is no sense 
of the self that at some psychological level does not imply a 
relation between the self and other, between the perceiver and their 
own group (Onorato & Turner, 2002).  It also accounts for the 
cognitive and social aspect of the self and thus, it explains 
cognitive groupings of oneself and some class of stimuli as identity, 
in contrast to some other class of stimuli (Onorato & Turner, 2002). 
Likewise, when social identity is salient, people's actions and 
attitudes are guided more by group's norms than by personal factors 
(Terry et al., 2000).  So, to the extent that a particular group has 
a norm about a particular attitude, then identification with that 
group and its salience within the self will determine how much the 
individual will also express and internalize that attitude (Turner, 1999).
Race, Politics and Religion
One important factor linked to religion and politics is people's 
ethnicity or race. Several reasons may account for its relevance when 
examining politics, but perhaps the strongest argument is the steady 
rise in black voters' registration and participation in political 
events. As the 2000 US Census revealed, the percentage of black 
voters showing up at the polls raised 3% in 1998 (Mathis, 2001).
For years, scholars have examined possible associations between 
politics and religion or politics and race. The study of political 
affiliation and group identification has a substantial history that 
perhaps started with the classic Columbia Voting Studies (Berensol, 
Lazarsfeld & Mcphee, 1954) and continued with The American Voter 
(Campbell, Converse, Miller & Stokes, 1960) both revealing a strong 
association between social groups and partisanship.  One significant 
conclusion emerging from these studies revealed that just as people 
identify with various racial, ethnic and religious groups so too do 
they identify with political parties.
A vast number of studies have examined voter turnout among African 
Americans while considering socio economic status, education or 
political resources on the decision to vote (Hackey, 1992; Mathis, 
2001; Shingles, 1981; Tate, 1994), yet there is lack of empirical 
research examining the impact of religious and political identity 
together, while considering differences between ethnic groups.
Some studies have documented that blacks' orientations to politics 
and voting behavior are distinctive from those of Whites and 
Hispanics in the US (Hackey, 1992; Milbrath & Goel, 1977; Howell & 
Fagan, 1988).  Also, research during Reagan's election revealed that 
political orientations of blacks differed significantly from those of 
whites in their attitudes toward many fundamental values and 
contemporary issues. Likewise, it has been argued that as compared to 
other ethnic groups, blacks seem to be less trucking, more alienated 
and less well informed about politics (Hackey, 1992).
African Americans and partisanship. Early research examining minority 
voters, specifically black voters, described socioeconomic status and 
party identification as significant variables influencing political 
behavior. Vedlitz (1985) examined a random sample of African American 
voters in Texas, and concluded that voter registration drives was 
indeed a useful strategy to motivate voters during election years at 
least in a short-term period.  Years later, Hackey (1992) examined 
explanations of blacks' turnout from 1977 to 1988 using data from a 
General Social Survey, and also found education, income, age and 
political party affiliation to be significant predictors of voting 
among African Americans. Likewise, Tate (1994) examined predictors 
among black voters, and found that political interest and 
partisanship were the two most strongly and consistently related to 
black participation. Yet, the relationship between religion and 
political participation among black voters has been a critical issue 
in political research for several decades.
African Americans and religion. As some pollsters revealed, religion 
was at the core of the presidential debate during 2004 election, 
especially when linked to moral or social issues such as abortion, 
banning gay marriages, banning funds for embryonic stem cell 
research, the invasion of Iraq, and the elimination of the death 
penalty. Throughout the campaign, Americans witnessed how the two 
presidential candidates pursued and encouraged religious 
organizations hoping to develop alliances and procure more votes[3].
For many individuals, religion means affiliation with a particular 
group or denomination consisting on a set of doctrinal beliefs, 
ideas, ethical codes and symbols associated with a religious 
tradition (Guth, Jelen, Kellstedt, Smidt & Wald, 1988). However, 
while religion is in part personal in nature, it could also become a 
social phenomenon when finding expression within social 
collectivities whose members exhibit common identity, regular 
patterns of interaction and share group norms concerning beliefs and 
behaviors.  Also, emotional commitments to a particular religion 
group may indicate that an individual is also psychologically devoted 
to the beliefs and attitudes held by that religious group and 
consequently, since members of religious groups share common 
heritages, they may respond to social and political events in a 
collective, rather than individual fashion (Guth et al., 1988).
Overall, studies on religion and politics have provided mixed 
findings regarding the influence of religion on political behavior. 
On one hand, some authors suggest that the influence of religion on 
politics is indirect and based on religious teaching that stress the 
significance of some values while denigrating the importance of 
others shaping the value system of their followers (Van Gyes & De 
Witte, 1999). On the other hand, some academics claim that religion 
may have a more direct impact on politics, which is perceived when 
certain political ideas or attitudes are developed depending upon the 
group to which one belongs (Duriez, Luyten, Snauwaert & Hutsebaut, 2002).
Early research shows that religious affiliation played a major role 
in differentiating supporters of political parties in the 1980 
election, but not during the 1988 election .  However,  later studies 
not only proved that religion is a complex phenomenon, but also that 
at least five facts are relevant for understanding political 
behaviors and religion is one of them . Findings revealed an 
increased impact of religious affiliation on presidential vote.
Among African Americans specifically, it has been suggested that 
blacks' ideological and partisan ties may have a much wider impact on 
their politics and attitudes than race identification (Tate, 1994). 
However, little work has been done to differentiate various aspect of 
religiosity (Reese & Brown, 1995). Religiosity has been measured as 
frequency of attendance to service, relevance or perception of 
importance on people's life. However, for the purposes of this paper, 
religious identity strength thus reconciles what has heretofore been 
defined as religiosity, importance and strength of religious affiliation.
Over the years, the importance of an individual's identification with 
political and social groups has been rediscovered revealing that 
group identification has a strong influence on political attitudes, 
values and beliefs (Wilcox, 1991a; 1992b).  When examining religion 
and politics among blacks, Wilcox (1991a) found that as compared to 
religion, race left religion little room to influence voting 
behaviors. Specifically, it was found that vote choice was not 
directly related to any religious variables; only partisanship and 
family income were predictors among blacks.  However, when Reeese and 
Brown (1995) examined associations between racial identity, system 
blame and religiosity using data from 1984 National Black Election 
Study, authors found that religious messages and religiosity indeed 
influenced voters differently.
In general, studies have shown that blacks are more likely to attend 
services, read the Bible, say grace before meals and hold more 
orthodox views than whites and therefore, scholars conclude that 
religion seems to be more salient for African Americans than for 
other ethnic groups (Wilcox, 1991a). Likewise, it has been argued 
that blacks are more likely to vote Democrat and hold more liberal 
political ideology than Whites . Yet, when measuring social issues, 
blacks tend to be more conservative than whites on issues like 
abortion, but more liberal on issues related to gender equality and 
homosexuality. The rationale for these results suggest that blacks 
perceive these issues as two separate sets of issues: abortion is 
linked to religious beliefs whereas gender issues involve political 
equality or discrimination.  Thus, although Blacks actually display 
less affect towards homosexuals when answering questions, they tend 
to endorse legal protection and equality for homosexuals.
African Americans and news media.  Televised debated have occurred in 
general campaigns since 1960. Examination of the influences of the 
televised debate is not new (Benoit et al., 2003; Geer, 1988; 
Holbrook, 1996; Shaw, 1999; Steeper, 1978) and results lead to mixing 
findings.  Although extensive panel-study in 1992 examining media use 
and the debates, suggested limited effect of the debates on 
stimulating political interest (Cavanaugh, 1995),  later studies 
found that traditional forms of communication, especially newspapers 
and TV debates indeed affected the election process (Pfau, Cho, & 
Chong, 2001).
Some scholars argue that debates might influence voter's behaviors 
only when one of the candidates is not well known, voters are 
undecided or party allegiances are weak (Becker & Kraus, 1978; Geer, 
1988). Recent meta analysis examining the potential effects of 
televised debates indicates that the first debate has a larger effect 
on vote preference compared to subsequent debates (Benoit, et al., 
2003), and it is suggested that those who watched debates tend to use 
more issues to evaluate presidential candidates. In brief, authors 
concluded that debates could have both direct effects (on voters who 
choose to watch) and indirect effects (on voters who learn about 
debates from the news).
Regarding the 2004 presidential elections, local and national polls 
published on Georgia revealed relevant changes on voters' behaviors 
before and after exposure to the presidential debates. Prior to the 
first debate several polls indicated Bush had the lead over Kerry. 
However, according to the polls, the distance between the two 
candidates seemed to narrow down after watching the televised debates 
(Baxter, 2004; Gallup, 2004[4]). Nielsen Media Research polls 
indicated that almost 63 millions of Americans watched and tuned in 
for the first presidential encounter [5] (Marlon, 2004a, 2004b).  As 
compared with previous elections, figures revealed that the first 
2004 presidential debate drew the biggest audience in 12 years and a 
34% increase over the first presidential debate between Bush and Gore 
(Gallup, 2004).
The Current Research
The unique discourse surrounding the 2004 election and the 
distinctive characteristics under which new voters in Georgia would 
vote for the next President called for an examination of possible 
predictors for presidential voting intentions among African Americans 
and non-African Americans voters. As explained elsewhere, (Fishbein & 
Ajzen, 1974; Fishbein, Middlestadt & Chung, 1992), voting behavior is 
predictable from a person's voting intention or attitudes toward 
social issues. Specifically, it has been suggested that voting choice 
is accurately predicted from voting intentions, intention to vote in 
turn is predictable from knowledge of the person's attitudes toward 
voting for that candidate, and these attitudes toward voting for a 
given candidate are predictable from knowledge of the person's 
behavioral and normative beliefs.
   Building on social identity theory, this study examines to what 
extent religious identity and political identity played an important 
role on new voters' behaviors. Since social identity theory directs 
attention to redefinition of the self where group membership plays a 
central role, this theory is central for deriving the following 
research questions.  Despite the potential effects of religion on 
politics, previous research suggests that political variables and 
more specifically partisanship remains as the most potent predictor 
of people's vote choices (Rahn & Cramer, 1996). However, it has been 
suggested that this may not be the case when examining different 
ethnic groups. Therefore, the present study asks:
RQ1:  During the 2004 presidential election, would political 
identity, religious identity and new voter's attitudes toward 
politicized issues (i.e., Iraqi invasion and elimination of death 
penalty) predict pres