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This paper was presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and
Mass Communication in San Antonio, Texas August 2005.
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Thank you.
Elliott Parker
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The making of the 2004 US President:
A matter of ethnic differences, faith or political identification?
Raiza A. Rehkoff
Ph.D. Student- Public Communication
Georgia State University
P.O. Box 4000
Atlanta, Georgia 30302-4000
[log in to unmask] or [log in to unmask]
404-245.8251
Paper submitted for consideration to the special "Ethnic and Minority
Media" competition of the Mass Communication & Society Division
and/or the Minorities and Communication Division of the AEJM in San
Antonio, August 2005.
Abstract
During election years, religion and politics have to be seen not as
separate but interrelated factors, especially when parties politicize
issues at the intersection of religion and politics like gay
marriages, abortion, Iraqi invasion and death penalty. Building on
social identity theory, this study examines religious, political
identities and news media exposure as predictors for presidential
voting intentions and attitudes toward politicized issues among
African American and non-African American new voters during the 2004
presidential election.
The author wishes to thank Dr. Cynthia Hoffner for her guidance and
helpful comments.
KEYWORDS: Presidential election, politics, party affiliation,
religion, social identity, ethnicity, media, presidential debates.
Ethnicity and Elections 5
The making of the 2004 US President:
A matter of ethnic differences, faith or political identification?
During election years, scholars are particularly interested on
examination of politics, media exposure and the many factors
influencing final voting. As the 2004 Presidential election campaign
arrived at its climax, the emergence of religion and partisanship as
important factors in shaping presidential voting behaviors among new
voters provided an interesting context to examine potential
differences that could emerge between African American and
non-African American new voters. More so, if one considers that
nearly 85% of American voters rated religion as an important factor
in their lives, which resonates with post election pollsters
revealing that a considerable amount of US voters ranked moral values
as their number one priority to ultimately determine who lives in the
White House for the next four years.[1]
The state of Georgia emerged as an interesting case study when
considering the unique factors surrounding voting behaviors in this
Southeastern state. First, as local press revealed there was a
considerable increased in the amount of new voters who registered
early on nationwide. Specifically, it was reported that nearly 300
thousand new voters registered to participate in the 2004 election
(Campos, 2004; Jones, 2004). Second, Georgia residents voted on the
approval of a US constitutional amendment banning gay marriages and
according to some figures, more than 60% of likely Georgia voters
intended to vote in favor of the amendment banning marriage between
homosexual couples (Galloway, 2004). In fact, the near to record
figures on voters registration for this election seemed to be related
to voters' desires to express their position on some hot
issues. Third, the population of the city of Atlanta is very diverse
offering an interesting representation of minority groups,
specifically African Americans. As the latest census results
revealed, 61% of Atlanta's population is African American, 5% is
Hispanic and 2% is Asian.[2]
Considering then the unique conditions under which new voters in
Georgia voted on the 2004 election and the scenario where religion
and politics provided the battleground for the presidential election,
an empirical study examining ethnic differences that emerged as a
result of new voters' identification with religious groups or
political parties, and the influence of these identities on
presidential voting intentions is in order. However, this
examination would be only half complete if one fails to consider the
impact of the news media coverage of the political race. While
people prepared for November 2, 2004, news media bombarded voters
with countless messages reproducing, gathering and some times even
providing voters with unsolicited interpretation of the many
political aspects of the presidential campaigns.
This study contributes to the recent resurgence of interest in
religion, politics and ethnic differences by making three significant
innovations. First, it uses composite of variables for assessing
political and religious identity. Second, the vast majority of
studies examining religion and politics relied on data gathered for
general social surveys whereas; data used for this study was gathered
specifically for the purposes of this study right prior to the
election. Thirdly, this study considers individual candidates or
voting intentions specifically from the 2004 election. Thus, the
purpose of this study is two-fold. First, using social identity
theory as a framework, this research examines political identity,
religious identity and other political and religious variables as
potential predictors for presidential voting intentions among new
voters in Georgia during the 2004 election while considering group
ethnic differences, specifically African Americans and non-African
Americans. While there is much speculation and some evidence for the
impact of media messages on voters, this study further investigates
the role exposure to the presidential debates on presidential voting
among new Georgia voters. Also, since most of the major issues under
the political debate (i.e., abortion, gay marriage, Iraq, death
penalty), this study explores religious and political identity as
possible factors predicting new Georgia voters' attitudes toward
these issues. Thus, a brief description of social identity theory is
offered first, and then the literature related to (a) politics and
religion and b) politics and news media is reviewed.
Theoretical Framework
Studying identity is crucial if researchers are interested in
explaining and predicting individuals' behaviors. Likewise, at the
core of studying identity is the examination of series of complex
processes that guide the individual's behaviors in the social world
and therefore, scholars agree that people's behaviors can be
predicted through examination of identities and people's affiliation
or membership to particular groups. In essence, social identity
theory integrates the self, group attitudes and social influence, so
this theory is essentially a theory of the social self where the
notion of a self-identity, defined by group membership and the
evaluations and emotions attached to this membership, is pivotal
(Turner, 1999).
Turner (1999) conceptualized social identity as the combination of
aspects defining a person's self concept based on their group
memberships, so social identity is how individuals define themselves
in terms of some social group membership with the associated value
connotations and emotional significance those memberships implied.
Scholars have studied social identity as related to media stereotypes
or group identification (Karasawa, 1991; Terry, Hogg & McKimmie,
2000) and specifically in the context of American partisanship
(Greene, 2004). More recently, Greene (2004) looked at party
identification among a sample of Ohio voters and found that partisan
social identity proved to be a significant predictor of political
party ratings, ideology and party activity. Greene concluded that
social identity is a fundamental aspect of American partisanship,
which could lead to better prediction and understanding of related
political attitudes and behaviors.
This idea of 'group membership' implies that individuals will
experience a redefinition of the self in terms of a shared social
identity. Thus, it seems that in salient social identity the
depersonalization of the self will also imply depersonalizing self
interests and transforming those into collective "group
interests". In addition, each individual takes different roles
throughout his/her life (i.e., as a wife, as a mother, as a student,
as a teacher), and different identities become active depending upon
the context, situations and as relevant stimuli for
self-categorization change. More recently, in an attempt to further
explain the categorization process involved in social identity
theory, Turner and colleagues developed self-categorization theory
(Turner, 1999; Turner, Hogg, Oakes, Reicher, & Wetherell, 1987).
Self-categorization. In brief, self-categorization is an extension
of social identity theory that focuses more specifically on the role
of the categorization process and implies that when individuals
perceive themselves as part of a group, the self is then cognitively
redefined in terms of their group membership (Turner,
1999). Self-categorization theory advocates that there is no sense
of the self that at some psychological level does not imply a
relation between the self and other, between the perceiver and their
own group (Onorato & Turner, 2002). It also accounts for the
cognitive and social aspect of the self and thus, it explains
cognitive groupings of oneself and some class of stimuli as identity,
in contrast to some other class of stimuli (Onorato & Turner, 2002).
Likewise, when social identity is salient, people's actions and
attitudes are guided more by group's norms than by personal factors
(Terry et al., 2000). So, to the extent that a particular group has
a norm about a particular attitude, then identification with that
group and its salience within the self will determine how much the
individual will also express and internalize that attitude (Turner, 1999).
Race, Politics and Religion
One important factor linked to religion and politics is people's
ethnicity or race. Several reasons may account for its relevance when
examining politics, but perhaps the strongest argument is the steady
rise in black voters' registration and participation in political
events. As the 2000 US Census revealed, the percentage of black
voters showing up at the polls raised 3% in 1998 (Mathis, 2001).
For years, scholars have examined possible associations between
politics and religion or politics and race. The study of political
affiliation and group identification has a substantial history that
perhaps started with the classic Columbia Voting Studies (Berensol,
Lazarsfeld & Mcphee, 1954) and continued with The American Voter
(Campbell, Converse, Miller & Stokes, 1960) both revealing a strong
association between social groups and partisanship. One significant
conclusion emerging from these studies revealed that just as people
identify with various racial, ethnic and religious groups so too do
they identify with political parties.
A vast number of studies have examined voter turnout among African
Americans while considering socio economic status, education or
political resources on the decision to vote (Hackey, 1992; Mathis,
2001; Shingles, 1981; Tate, 1994), yet there is lack of empirical
research examining the impact of religious and political identity
together, while considering differences between ethnic groups.
Some studies have documented that blacks' orientations to politics
and voting behavior are distinctive from those of Whites and
Hispanics in the US (Hackey, 1992; Milbrath & Goel, 1977; Howell &
Fagan, 1988). Also, research during Reagan's election revealed that
political orientations of blacks differed significantly from those of
whites in their attitudes toward many fundamental values and
contemporary issues. Likewise, it has been argued that as compared to
other ethnic groups, blacks seem to be less trucking, more alienated
and less well informed about politics (Hackey, 1992).
African Americans and partisanship. Early research examining minority
voters, specifically black voters, described socioeconomic status and
party identification as significant variables influencing political
behavior. Vedlitz (1985) examined a random sample of African American
voters in Texas, and concluded that voter registration drives was
indeed a useful strategy to motivate voters during election years at
least in a short-term period. Years later, Hackey (1992) examined
explanations of blacks' turnout from 1977 to 1988 using data from a
General Social Survey, and also found education, income, age and
political party affiliation to be significant predictors of voting
among African Americans. Likewise, Tate (1994) examined predictors
among black voters, and found that political interest and
partisanship were the two most strongly and consistently related to
black participation. Yet, the relationship between religion and
political participation among black voters has been a critical issue
in political research for several decades.
African Americans and religion. As some pollsters revealed, religion
was at the core of the presidential debate during 2004 election,
especially when linked to moral or social issues such as abortion,
banning gay marriages, banning funds for embryonic stem cell
research, the invasion of Iraq, and the elimination of the death
penalty. Throughout the campaign, Americans witnessed how the two
presidential candidates pursued and encouraged religious
organizations hoping to develop alliances and procure more votes[3].
For many individuals, religion means affiliation with a particular
group or denomination consisting on a set of doctrinal beliefs,
ideas, ethical codes and symbols associated with a religious
tradition (Guth, Jelen, Kellstedt, Smidt & Wald, 1988). However,
while religion is in part personal in nature, it could also become a
social phenomenon when finding expression within social
collectivities whose members exhibit common identity, regular
patterns of interaction and share group norms concerning beliefs and
behaviors. Also, emotional commitments to a particular religion
group may indicate that an individual is also psychologically devoted
to the beliefs and attitudes held by that religious group and
consequently, since members of religious groups share common
heritages, they may respond to social and political events in a
collective, rather than individual fashion (Guth et al., 1988).
Overall, studies on religion and politics have provided mixed
findings regarding the influence of religion on political behavior.
On one hand, some authors suggest that the influence of religion on
politics is indirect and based on religious teaching that stress the
significance of some values while denigrating the importance of
others shaping the value system of their followers (Van Gyes & De
Witte, 1999). On the other hand, some academics claim that religion
may have a more direct impact on politics, which is perceived when
certain political ideas or attitudes are developed depending upon the
group to which one belongs (Duriez, Luyten, Snauwaert & Hutsebaut, 2002).
Early research shows that religious affiliation played a major role
in differentiating supporters of political parties in the 1980
election, but not during the 1988 election . However, later studies
not only proved that religion is a complex phenomenon, but also that
at least five facts are relevant for understanding political
behaviors and religion is one of them . Findings revealed an
increased impact of religious affiliation on presidential vote.
Among African Americans specifically, it has been suggested that
blacks' ideological and partisan ties may have a much wider impact on
their politics and attitudes than race identification (Tate, 1994).
However, little work has been done to differentiate various aspect of
religiosity (Reese & Brown, 1995). Religiosity has been measured as
frequency of attendance to service, relevance or perception of
importance on people's life. However, for the purposes of this paper,
religious identity strength thus reconciles what has heretofore been
defined as religiosity, importance and strength of religious affiliation.
Over the years, the importance of an individual's identification with
political and social groups has been rediscovered revealing that
group identification has a strong influence on political attitudes,
values and beliefs (Wilcox, 1991a; 1992b). When examining religion
and politics among blacks, Wilcox (1991a) found that as compared to
religion, race left religion little room to influence voting
behaviors. Specifically, it was found that vote choice was not
directly related to any religious variables; only partisanship and
family income were predictors among blacks. However, when Reeese and
Brown (1995) examined associations between racial identity, system
blame and religiosity using data from 1984 National Black Election
Study, authors found that religious messages and religiosity indeed
influenced voters differently.
In general, studies have shown that blacks are more likely to attend
services, read the Bible, say grace before meals and hold more
orthodox views than whites and therefore, scholars conclude that
religion seems to be more salient for African Americans than for
other ethnic groups (Wilcox, 1991a). Likewise, it has been argued
that blacks are more likely to vote Democrat and hold more liberal
political ideology than Whites . Yet, when measuring social issues,
blacks tend to be more conservative than whites on issues like
abortion, but more liberal on issues related to gender equality and
homosexuality. The rationale for these results suggest that blacks
perceive these issues as two separate sets of issues: abortion is
linked to religious beliefs whereas gender issues involve political
equality or discrimination. Thus, although Blacks actually display
less affect towards homosexuals when answering questions, they tend
to endorse legal protection and equality for homosexuals.
African Americans and news media. Televised debated have occurred in
general campaigns since 1960. Examination of the influences of the
televised debate is not new (Benoit et al., 2003; Geer, 1988;
Holbrook, 1996; Shaw, 1999; Steeper, 1978) and results lead to mixing
findings. Although extensive panel-study in 1992 examining media use
and the debates, suggested limited effect of the debates on
stimulating political interest (Cavanaugh, 1995), later studies
found that traditional forms of communication, especially newspapers
and TV debates indeed affected the election process (Pfau, Cho, &
Chong, 2001).
Some scholars argue that debates might influence voter's behaviors
only when one of the candidates is not well known, voters are
undecided or party allegiances are weak (Becker & Kraus, 1978; Geer,
1988). Recent meta analysis examining the potential effects of
televised debates indicates that the first debate has a larger effect
on vote preference compared to subsequent debates (Benoit, et al.,
2003), and it is suggested that those who watched debates tend to use
more issues to evaluate presidential candidates. In brief, authors
concluded that debates could have both direct effects (on voters who
choose to watch) and indirect effects (on voters who learn about
debates from the news).
Regarding the 2004 presidential elections, local and national polls
published on Georgia revealed relevant changes on voters' behaviors
before and after exposure to the presidential debates. Prior to the
first debate several polls indicated Bush had the lead over Kerry.
However, according to the polls, the distance between the two
candidates seemed to narrow down after watching the televised debates
(Baxter, 2004; Gallup, 2004[4]). Nielsen Media Research polls
indicated that almost 63 millions of Americans watched and tuned in
for the first presidential encounter [5] (Marlon, 2004a, 2004b). As
compared with previous elections, figures revealed that the first
2004 presidential debate drew the biggest audience in 12 years and a
34% increase over the first presidential debate between Bush and Gore
(Gallup, 2004).
The Current Research
The unique discourse surrounding the 2004 election and the
distinctive characteristics under which new voters in Georgia would
vote for the next President called for an examination of possible
predictors for presidential voting intentions among African Americans
and non-African Americans voters. As explained elsewhere, (Fishbein &
Ajzen, 1974; Fishbein, Middlestadt & Chung, 1992), voting behavior is
predictable from a person's voting intention or attitudes toward
social issues. Specifically, it has been suggested that voting choice
is accurately predicted from voting intentions, intention to vote in
turn is predictable from knowledge of the person's attitudes toward
voting for that candidate, and these attitudes toward voting for a
given candidate are predictable from knowledge of the person's
behavioral and normative beliefs.
Building on social identity theory, this study examines to what
extent religious identity and political identity played an important
role on new voters' behaviors. Since social identity theory directs
attention to redefinition of the self where group membership plays a
central role, this theory is central for deriving the following
research questions. Despite the potential effects of religion on
politics, previous research suggests that political variables and
more specifically partisanship remains as the most potent predictor
of people's vote choices (Rahn & Cramer, 1996). However, it has been
suggested that this may not be the case when examining different
ethnic groups. Therefore, the present study asks:
RQ1: During the 2004 presidential election, would political
identity, religious identity and new voter's attitudes toward
politicized issues (i.e., Iraqi invasion and elimination of death
penalty) predict pres
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