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This paper was presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and
Mass Communication in San Antonio, Texas August 2005.
If you have questions about this paper, please contact the author
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Thank you.
Elliott Parker
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A Thought-Experiment with Small-City Media
After 4G Wireless Technology Introduction
1
2 A thought experiment
Abstract
Development of Fourth Generation (4G) wireless broadband technology
is the variable in a
thought-experiment considering potentials for individuals, bloggers,
and newspapers to enter the
location of the small-town newspaper and challenge it for dominance.
The experiment suggests
that the possible 4G (or 5G) ability to transmit video nearly
instantly can change the
newsgathering process itself, and permit immediate Web publication,
creating journalism
without gatekeepers, editors, or schedules. 3 A thought experiment
A Thought Experiment with Small-City Media
After 4G Wireless Technology Introduction
[NOTE: As the research for this paper developed, it became clear that
the Fourth Generation
(4G) wireless broadband communication landscape was unsettled in
terms of deployment dates,
technology, and capability, with many conflicting beliefs. Yet, it is
certain to come. This paper
considered the trigger-event of individuals able to transmit live
wireless video to a Web site
where it could be immediately downloaded by friends or news
consumers, in effect, making each
person with a video camera and laptop computer a live television
broadcast station, anywhere,
anytime. Whether the technology is realized in 4G or a later 5G
version of wireless
communication technology, the model of the individual-as-live station
will be realized.]
Albert Einstein, along with other notable philosophers and
researchers, ran thoughtexperiments,
in which an experiment or examination of conditions is performed
mentally, rather
than through real world experimentation and observation (Brown,
2002). This form of
experimentation has proven fruitful; Einstein used the method to
begin developing special
relativity at the age of 16 (Einstein revealed, 1997). These
experiments are done this way for at
least two primary reasons: 1) because the technology to test the
ideas in real-world conditions
does not exist, and 2) new, and innovative understanding about the
issue under consideration can
actually come about through the very process of deliberate thought
about it (Brown, 2002).
This paper is developed as a thought-experiment because neither the technology
considered as the primary variable nor the emergent social conditions
after the technology
introduction are available for study. As the experiment, this paper
considers the introduction of a
new technological variable of 4th generation technology (4G) into the
relatively non-competitive
4 A thought experiment
economic environment of the small-city newspaper. Certainly,
advertising competition exists in
the form of publications such as Thrifty Nickel tabloids and local
television, but in general, no
real competition in terms of print exists.
The Variable
Fourth-generation high-speed wireless broadband technology is
projected to offer speeds
capable of transmitting video nearly instantly (Fourth Generation,
2005). The technology is not
yet deployed, but its development is advancing. For example, one
current estimate for the
deployment of 4G suggests the year 2007 (Diaz & Takahashi, 2004), but
market challenges may
alter this (Super 3G, 2005). This is a technology that is envisioned
by some to be a very high
speed wireless replacement for DSL (WiMAX, 2005; citing), and that
sense of power may prove
to be the best way to envision the technology for the short-term. But
that is likely a limited
notion of what we 4G can do. The very essence of 4G is speed. And
contrary to the 1970's
saying, speed does not kill. Speed online, is life
This paper will explore the potential effect on the competitive
environment of the smallcity
newspaper once 4G broadband technology is introduced. Additional
variables discussed
include the increasing credibility handed to bloggers by the public
and the press, and the
potential for new individuals and media businesses to competitively
enter into the small-city
news-gathering business with no serious monetary investment or
philosophical cost.
This is indeed an historical moment comparable to the introduction of
the telegraph or the
television. We have the opportunity to examine it before it happens
to us, and adjust. What
follows is a thought-experiment to accomplish that.
Issues Review
The 4G technology.
5 A thought experiment
Fourth-generation wireless technology is both the numbers assigned to
up- and download
speeds, and the generator of great speculation. The transmission
speed values have increased
dramatically with each generation of wireless technology introduced:
2G refers to speed of 9.6 kbit/sec which is about six times slower
than an ISDN fixed line
connection. For third generation mobile (3G) data rates are 384 kbps
(download)
maximum, typically around 200kbps, and 64kbps upload. In contrast, 4G
refers to
transmission at 20 Mbps. This is about 2,000 times faster than mobile
data rates, and
about 10 times faster than top transmission rates, planned in the
final build out of 3G
broadband mobile. It is about 10-20 times faster than standard ASDL
services, introduced
for internet connections over traditional copper cables some years
ago (4G: 2004).
By convention, and ITU and industry forums, 4G requires a minimum of
1 gigabyte of
information per second (gbps) fixed, and 100 megabytes per second
(mbps) mobile, it "should be
IPbased … [and] support next generation applications such as high
definition television to the
handset, and span fixed and mobile communications" (Super 3G, 2005).
Current technology does show speeds of 1 gigabytes per second
download, but that is in
the lab (Super 3G, 2005). Though this is download speed only, with
upload at about 100
megabytes per second, this speed will apparently accommodate
full-motion video over devices
as simple as a 4G wireless phone, not to mention home computers, or a
laptop on a table as the
coffee is served at a Starbucks. (4G commercial, 2004).
The marketplace is currently sizing up the various 4G options
worldwide (Super 3G,
2005). And whether the dominant player becomes the Intel-backed WiMAX
system or another,
the end result seems to be about the same. Any market which chooses
4G technology will have
always-on, very high speed wireless broadband available. In terms of
WiMAX, this would be
6 A thought experiment
anywhere within a 30-mile line-of-sight range of the base antenna; or
10-miles if another report
is more accurate (Diaz & Takahashi, 2005). It is anticipated that
antennae would overlap,
providing a seamless ability to transmit and receive no matter where
one was located or
traveling.
Most significantly in terms of the small-city newspaper, 4G will be
capable of pushing
the string of video in a smooth and clear manner. And because it is
wireless broadband
permeating the ether, the promise, according to some as noted above,
is that anyone will be able
to move video to anyone else, in real time from anywhere.
The loss of newspaper readership.
The fact of newspaper readership loss is well-established, but the
Internet and news
gathering by the young on the Net provide a look at where this youth
market may be reached.
State of the Media (n.d.) notes that in the last six months of 2004,
"Save for online, the
story of newspaper circulation was a return to accelerated decline …
For the six months ending
September 30, 2004, circulation at the 841 daily papers and 662
largest papers for which audited
totals were available was down 0.9% daily and 1.5% Sunday"
("Newspapers/Audience; chap:
Average Circulation of U.S. Daily Newspapers"). The report goes on to
note a Pew Research
Center poll in April 2004, found that "60% of people said they read a
daily newspaper
'regularly,' the lowest number since Pew began asking the question in
1990. Through the 1990s,
the number was stable at around 70%. ("Newspapers/Audience,a; chap:
Daily Newspapers by
Circulation Category, 2003)"
Broadband and Internet News Are Chosen More Often.
Conventional wisdom in the past held that most people in the past did
not purchase
broadband because they saw no compelling content-based reason to do
so. Dial-up is quite
7 A thought experiment
sufficient for almost all Web and e-mail use. One could almost blame
good compression
technologies in site design which make sites reasonably downloadable
at dial-up speeds, as the
cause for the earlier failure of broadband.
Nevertheless, in-home broadband is now the rule, rather than the
exception: "Broadband
penetration in the US grew by 1.1 points to 54.69% in December, up
from 53.59% in
November." (U.S. Broadband). And entire cities are gearing up to go
wireless, with Philadelphia
being one of the most prominent (Briefing). As an aside, it is
suggested that the increase in
broadband may be because a reason to purchase high speed did develop
in the last two years –
inexpensive digital photography. Sending large digital image files to
friends and family requires
the dial-up user to know the technology to compress the images, or at
the very least, put up with
long upload and download times. High-speed broadband makes it quick.
These are just still
images. The possibility for consumer response to instant moving
images would seem to offer
even greater promise. See the note about Reuters offering raw feed to
consumers below.
Concurrently, online news reading is increasing among Web users. "The
percentage of
Americans who say they go online for news three or more times a week
stood at 29%, according
to the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, up from 25%
in 2002 and 23% in
2000." The ones who stated in May through June 2004 they had at one
time or another gone
online for news stood at 66 percent for women and 77 percent for men,
and those who had gone
online for news just the day before stood at 21 percent for women,
and 34 percent for men
(Online/Audiences).
Blogs have already garnered credibility in terms of recognition by
the established media,
Blogs.
with the Washington Post even acknowledging a people's choice in the
best of political blogs of
8 A thought experiment
2004 (Best blogs). Some of these web logs have also proven to be
relatively responsible and
innovative in their work, so much so that four of them are credited
with creating the atmosphere
of skepticism around the documents CBS used for its reports about the
President Bush's early
1970's military service (Kopytoff, 2005, and How four, 2004).
Television news personalities
such as Keith Olbermann of MSNBC's Countdown now blog regularly and
these writings are
featured promotion tools on their shows. Kopytoff (2005) cites a Pew
Internet & American Life
Project study indicating that about 8 million people in the US have
blogs, and about 32 million
have read one.
The blog has become mainstream and has functioned in a journalistic
manner, though not
at all times, and not always well. But people are writing them, and
many more are reading them.
Methodology
The critical elements for the thought experiment are in place: 1) 4G
technology and the
(potential) capability to instantly transmit video from anywhere in a
region served by 4G in most
anyone's hands, 2) newspapers' loss of readership continues, notably
within the younger
generation, 3) the public has demonstrated an increasing acceptance
of and desire for the values
found in high-speed broadband, 4) the public continues to increase
its use of the Internet for
news, 5) and the public is developing an acceptance of the value of
the non-establishment
news/editorial voice seen in the blogging phenomenon.
We will consider introduction of these variables into the competitive
environment of the
small-town newspaper. This paper now turns to the results of the experiment.
Results
It can be argued that with the introduction of 4G, we will become a
society of video. Still
photos exclusively on the front page of a newspaper's Web site will
not be acceptable – that
9 A thought experiment
space will become, in large part, live full-motion video updates, or
something close to live since
the TV news stations will be doing that also. And while history and a
once-a-day printing
schedule have provided the print newspaper an excuse for getting old
information late to the
public in a single morning edition, the expectations of the Web user
will be merciless and
demanding. Immediate updates, full-motion video, and constant
addition of new stories around
the clock will become the rule.
Part of this scenario has been sketched out in the past and people
have come to ignore it
because the technology was not in place to enable the predictions.
But relatively cheap, alwayson,
always-everywhere, wireless broadband 4G technology may be capable of
delivering on the
promise, or the threat.
Discussion
Small-town media's susceptibility to competitive blogging.
One issue stands out in considering how the small-city newspaper may
be challenged in
the 4G future that goes beyond the technological ones.
The established media have quite unwittingly provided the springboard
for the challenge
to their position as news providers. They have, often with a good
degree of exuberance, reported
the blogging phenomenon. The "problem" with this public examination
of blogging and, in many
cases, wide-eyed wonder, is that the citizen-blogger has now taken on
a great deal of credibility.
What was once merely a lone voice on the Web talking about political
corruption, has now
become the blog ... a focal point for many Web users to read,
consider, and respond to daily. In
essence, the credibility of the citizen-blogger can now rival the
credibility of the newspaper and
TV news, and in some cases, surpass them. Blog fans are proud that
they, not Dan Rather were
10 A thought experiment
right about the Bush papers. In fact, the newspapers themselves send
the message that the blogs
are credible each time they highlight a blog coup.
The hurdle of credibility was the last element the independent online
daily needed to get
past in order to begin its challenge to the established media in the
small city.
The challenge to print.
The Internet has always offered the potential of the independent
person or organization
developing an online newspaper. But now, with 4G technology possibly
permitting instant-feed
capability from remote locations allowing the reporter to move
story-to-story without a need to
touch base and write a report/news story, and the rather postmodern
increase in credibility of the
individual news source, there will exist a perfect storm of
opportunity for challenges to the
established small-city newspaper. Whether the challenge be a response
to students' complaints in
college towns that the daily paper doesn't carry anything of
relevance to their lives (personal
conversations, 2000-2002), or a greater emphasis on the rural
community than the current daily
provides, or a deeper and more adversarial approach to local
government and business interests,
the independent online daily (IOD) will have a number of advantages
over the printed version.
In simple economic terms – the advantage to the independent online
daily is that the
competition's printed version is printed, and delivered. The costs of
"being paper" are large. An
IOD eliminates these costs, and one can be started by nearly anyone
with a bit of time and
money on their hands.
In readership terms – the advantage lies in the fact that that a
single IOD can address the
concerns of large segments of the population (e.g., students, rural
interests), by "re-zoning" the
online paper according to interest-group, rather than localize along
simplistic geographic zones,
for each subscriber. What this means is that each interest group
would receive the online paper in
11 A thought experiment
its entirety, but with the information of interest to that group
brought to the front page; with the
front page configured uniquely to each primary interest group. This
would require no more than
a few minutes page layout and upload to the Web site for each
principle interest group.
The online paper also has the capability to update older stories and
place new ones on the
Web site as soon as they're taped or voice-recognitioned over the
phone into a column of text.
The attendant advantages and disadvantages in terms of leaving little
time for editing, reflection,
and accuracy checking of this immediate-update capability are obvious
and have been points of
concern without universal resolution for a number of years now.
Regardless of the legitimate concerns, the speed of the report will
become a critical
competitive factor once again. In the current age, it really means
little to a reader or viewer that
a news source was first with the information. In most cases, news is
already old information by
the time most people receive. Production delays age news quickly. The
delays of newspaper
story writing, editing, printing and newspaper delivery are
particularly lengthy. The delays
caused by TV news program time slots are obvious, But, there is also
the unexamined fact that
TV news presentation is linear and by the time the news reader has
finished with one story, the
next story closing out the broadcast may be outdated. The delays of
production have consistently
wrung the newness out of the news, and people are smart enough to
understand this. In a 4G
world, the cost of providing stale information in this
instant-gratification society, would be
prohibitive.
If it's true that people will buy into broadband once they see a
compelling reason for the
speed, the speed in news delivery may become all-important to news
organizations. Use of 4G
will probably enable reporters to send raw feed straight to their
subscribers. This may eventually
redefine the editor's position and responsibilities in most news
organizations. Could one afford
12 A thought experiment
the time to edit information before releasing it, while the
competition has that 5-alarm fire being
fed directly to the Web viewer? Should one turn it over to the Web
viewer watching the three
reporters covering that fire sending raw feed to the Web – will it
just be left to Web viewers to
bounce between the reports as they happen, becoming their own editors?
The compelling nature of watching live has already been demonstrated.
The authors of
the page about online audiences in State of the Media 2005
(Online/Audiences, n.d.) report that
in conversation, Reuters representatives noted that:
When Reuters put up a section of raw video called Reuters Raw in
March 2003, tens of
thousand of people watched unedited streaming video of big events
like developments in
Iraq. Those viewers, Reuters reported, said they preferred seeing
what's "really"
happening unfiltered by editors.
If this immediate-update capability is thought of in terms of
subscriber use and
advertising, the online daily begins to show an economic promise and
advantage the standard
printed newspaper cannot ever offer. The user of the online daily
might return to the same Web
site, and story, several times a day to review it for changes.
Eyeballs (readers) are thus delivered
at a multiple rate, as compared to the one-time "read it and throw it
away" pattern of the printed
newspaper.
We may want to examine the advertising rates for the online paper as
based on the
returning-reader rate, in addition to a single-impression,
click-through, or preferred placement
methods. In considering the above idea of return visitors drawn by an
expectation of updated
news, the notion of unique site visitors may not be all that
valuable. Repeated exposure to a
single ad on the home page by returning site visitors looking for
updated news may be the best
13 A thought experiment
way to measure an ad's potential. And to charge for it. In the end,
though, the idea has
difficulties since costs of advertising would be unpredictable.
Traditional papers going online.
Interestingly, in the small city, the competition from an independent
online daily and the
large economic drain of paper, printing and delivery costs may force
the local newspaper to
move exclusively to an online presence much earlier than many would
currently predict. This, of
course, raises many questions, such as access to information by those
unable to afford a
computer, rural Net access, and others. These are truly deep and
troubling issues.
But, and this said without any cynicism, those left behind because
they cannot afford Web access
once a paper-newspaper goes completely online will likely not have
commercially desirable
demographics in terms of age and income, and will not provide a
reasonable economic base for a
newspaper to continue printing.
Yes, there is the admirable notion of public service providing a
reason to continue
printing. But the first order of a business is survival. If it cannot
survive, the newspaper has no
hope of providing the public service ever.
This notion of any newspaper going exclusively online presupposes
that people will be
willing to literally let go of their page-turning habits. A lot of
people feel that this simply is not
going to happen, and claim the newspaper is going to be around for
many years down the road.
However, if the competition from the independent online paper is
strong enough, the sheer
economic cost of the real-world newspaper might force this change.
As we become a society that sits itself down at the computer in the
morning to check email,
it becomes harder to find time to devote to reading a real paper. It
is considerably easier to
14 A thought experiment
just drop the e-mail into the background and click on the personal
favorite icon leading to the
electronic version of one's preferred newspaper.
And most newspapers don't fit on a computer desk, where a lot of
potential readers spend
their time.
What does the online paper contribute to the paper paper?
Classified advertising appears to be the profit center for most
online newspapers. And
while the online newspaper cannibalizes its parent paper to some
degree, it also takes people
away from television news and places them in front of the computer
screen (Power, 2004). As
more TV news watchers are recruited to the online newspaper,
publishers and editors may need
to re-conceptualize what the online newspaper should deliver to its reader.
The television user gives up some kind of television-watching
experience by going to the
online news. Those building content and experience in the online Web
paper may examine the
site for its potential to provide what the former TV viewer has given
up. For example, the TV
news often provides its most colorful characters in the weather
forecasting. So far, there is no
attempt by any newspaper this author is aware of to develop a cult
following of its weather
people, much less even identify a person responsible for the weather
forecasting. If a newspaper
were to create a persona around the individual who takes the
forecasts off the feeds and slams it
into the Web site with blogged commentary, we should expect a
following of the person and the
online paper to emerge. This is just one point of opportunity among
many which could be
capitalized on to enhance the online newspaper.
A small rural paper in Kansas, for example, could become the
preferred choice for people
in times of emergency weather conditions such as the threat-time of a
tornado approaching, if the
paper had two elements established: 1) a weather person the public
had come to trust, and 2)
15 A thought experiment
streaming media that would allow instant live-action updates. There
will be no reason in the
4G/5G world that the newspaper should abdicate the opportunity for
live-update information
feeds to the TV stations.
The challenge to local television news.
Most likely, the act of updating stories will place the independent
online daily/IOD
reporter at the location of the story, if it's not one that can be
covered simply by interviewing
people over the phone. This independent reporter would be able to
take new digital photographs
and/or shoot video with a digital video camera and immediately upload
the visuals to the online
daily's Web site by 4G broadband.
This is wireless transmission of news with immediate Web user
availability and the
independent online daily becomes competitive with television news, in
addition to the local
paper.
The cost advantages of the independent online daily are greater than
the local television
station. Costs involved in studio and office space, building
maintenance, rent and others are
reduced or eliminated to a large degree. A spare bedroom,
appropriately soundproofed should be
sufficient for a studio to start, though the wide shots of the large
sets found on even local
television news are quite appealing. The same computers used for
writing stories can be used for
editing video tape. In essence, the IOD can become a TV station
online at minor cost.
Costs could be contained by the IOD even with stories being updated
constantly. New
footage is shot as-needed by individual reporters, not news teams;
voice-overs are dubbed on-site
as-needed; and using voice-recognition technology, actual in-depth,
print-journalism-style
written copy with hyperlinks to additional information can be
provided, thus offering both print
and television news functions. In one reporter.
16 A thought experiment
There will likely also be a shifting of ad time pricing for
traditional TV because of the
competitive situation caused by the constant news updating by the
IOD. With the IOD, the
subscriber pulls the information to him- or herself when it is
convenient, rather than when the
high-priced advertising is scheduled to run within the 5:00 local
news on regular television. This
kind of pull vs. push programming competition would likely play havoc
with the pricing for
spots on traditional television news programs since TV news
viewership should fall if the IOD
provides competitive content and strong production values. It should
be noted that various
outlines of this change in pricing for local TV news slots were part
of the early projections for
how the Internet would disrupt traditional media. And as noted with
other similar projections,
they disappeared when the technology proved far less capable than
people's imaginations. With
4G/5G, the technology should be quite capable.
However, the advantage does not go strictly to the IOD. TV stations
are already
experimenting with streaming media and should be expected to
universally offer the instant-4G
capability even without a direct challenge for viewers by the IOD.
And with the local paper's version of the online daily offering much
the same information
and video, we begin to see a new form of that once-praised concept,
convergence, begin to
emerge. The established newspaper and television news, and the
independent news challenger
all will likely begin to look quite alike. The competitive arena will
not allow anyone to forsake
full-motion video, interesting personalities, and some degree of
archiving that people can tap into
to find more information about a news event.
The challenge to the independent online daily.
The IOD itself will confront a variety of challenges. These include:
the need to establish
credibility in the face of the community's long-standing relationship
with traditional print and
17 A thought experiment
TV (this has been discussed above in terms of blogger credibility);
the need for relatively deep
pockets in terms of funding since advertising revenues will depend on
the long-term growth of
credibility and the community's use of the online daily; and talent
raids by the traditional media
to bolster their own online capabilities and to weaken the
independent online daily by removing
talent from it.
Advertising dollars and audiences.
With the online consumer selecting the stories, how does the
television news program
charge for the advertising in the Web environment? One current method
is to charge a standard
rate for space for advertising that appears on a page of the site.
However, a more rational way
might be to charge by story selected (a variant of traditional
click-through charging), so that if a
Web page with a story and advertising is pulled at a rate twice that
of another story, the station
would charge twice as much. Advertising costs become a gamble on both
the advertiser's and the
TV station's part, since neither would know the final outcome of the
number of page-views until
the story was concluded. In the end, though, we will likely continue
the practice of charging the
advertiser for click-throughs from the ad Web page, to the advertiser's page.
Yet, page views or click-throughs based on the story could add a real
interesting
opportunity. Advertisers could monitor the news and project people's
interest, so that if they
become aware of a serial killer's apprehension, for example, the
advertisers could bid to appear
on that story's page ... and the online TV station, newspaper, or IOD
could open bidding for
placement on the page much in the way one would auction off a prize
antique. The auction
would establish the price of the click-through, or the price of
placement on the page.
18 A thought experiment
Certainly, it would be smart for the IOD, at least, to work with the
search engine Google
in its Ad Sense program, in which a person is served up a small
number of Google ads related to
the information on that page when they go to a Web page.
It gets even more competitive for the advertising dollars.
Even with its surface-level competitive advantages, the survival of
the independent online
daily/IOD is not a foregone conclusion. However, by the time the
traditional media begin to
move against the competitive challenge posed, the IOD may have
already established itself as the
preferred brand of news and other information for advertiser-desired
interest groups such as local
high school and college students, and the wealthy.
The established online newspaper and TV will each deliver a similar
flow of information
along with a decreasing pool of advertising to a set population, (the
advertising base will be
depleted by the draw of the IOD). As the battle wages, the IOD will
pack its Web site with
content that skews toward the target groups it believes provide the
best advertising demographics
and psychographics. It will do this for its carefully defined target
markets, not the whole of the
market. In contrast, the established media will generally continue to
try to reach most people.
This niche newspapering gives the IOD the opportunity to concentrate
its reporting in the areas
of interest for its identified targets at lower personnel costs, in
contrast to the personnel-costly
general reporting of the established newspaper.
This may seem to make the IOD far too niche-oriented to be considered
a "real" online
newspaper, so to keep the value such real-paper designation may
offer, the IOD will need to be
sure it does some significant stories on the general community as the
cost of doing business. The
IOD becomes a better citizen through this kind of work, and could
gain respect from major
advertisers.
19 A thought experiment
Revenue for online newspapers is located around advertising, with the
idea of charging
site visitors to read stories seemingly unworkable (Seelye, 2005).
Seelye notes that "[o]f the
nation's 1,456 daily newspapers, only one national paper, the Wall
Street Journal … and about
40 small dailies charge readers to use their Web sites." This stands
as testimony to the common
wisdom about the consumer's attitude about information content on the
Web – that it must be
free or it will be bypassed (porn excepted).
Another threat to the advertising base.
If those advertising revenues the online paper depends on were
threatened by outsider (or
even internal to the city) Web sites that became known for low-cost
classified placement and if
those sites were able to develop even a moderate presence in the
city, the newspaper's online
revenues would be deeply threatened. This does not require 4G.
Consider the potential for eBay.com opening up a national classified
ad site, or Google
offering free advertising. It could be this easy – click on Google's
home page Classified Ads
link, type in Wichita, Kansas, and get the Wichita advertising to
select from. Google would list
ads for free, making its money with its current targeted words
listing. People would likely place
their ads on that big-brand site because it's free, and the local
paper is not. And people would get
used to the idea of Google being the brand with the ads, even though
it is not local – the brand
has that much cachet already. A site called craigslist already has
this kind of advertising, and
though it draws four million visitors a month (Online/Intro, n.d.),
it appears the name is not wellknown
enough to have the kind of killer-category capability a Google site may have.
The small-city newspapers, however, do have the advantage of the
revenues generated by
the printed version, and this alone may be the reason they continue
to print, even though the firstglance
economic advantage lies in going purely online. Perhaps, what remains
paper is strictly
20 A thought experiment
the advertising. All actual news content goes online. This breakup of
the connection of print
media carrying both news and advertising could possibly prove to be
the strongest move a smallcity
newspaper could make. One can imagine real money put into this so
that it is a slick twiceweekly
publication, four-color capable and impeccably designed. A unique
quality resource that
people may actually pay for, even though the information is also online.
Who is the chosen one?
If we view the online competitive environment as strictly a matter between the
established newspaper and the TV news station, it appears that a
well-run newspaper, willing to
enter a video-dominant online presentation rather than a traditional
printed-word/still-image
version, will have the advantage over the local TV station.
Newspapers have traditionally been
believed to offer longer, and more in-depth reporting than TV news.
This cultural understanding,
whether true or not, may become the determinant for news consumers who seek an
understanding of issues, rather than a glossing over.
This is not to say that the TV Web sites will not attract visitors.
Indeed, the brevity with
which stories are perceived to be treated would be welcomed by many
who feel their time is
compressed. What this tells the online newspaper is that it needs to
provide two versions of the
major stories. The first would be the traditional developed story.
The second would be the
truncated time-saving story. This continues the previously mentioned
strategy of giving the TV
viewers the sense that they have not lost anything in switching to
the newspaper Web site.
The potentials of larger-media takeover.
Finally, there's the concern with "outsider newspaper competition."
So far, the
competitive environment of newspaper, TV, and independent online
daily has been considered
solely in terms of media developed in and operating within the small city.
21 A thought experiment
The small-city newspaper could be threatened by a major newspaper or
television station
from a large city in the region. Think in terms of one of the two
main newspapers in Denver,
either the Rocky Mountain News or the Denver Post, setting up a
three-person news team in a
small Colorado town such as Durango, in the southwest corner of the
state; two people to report,
one to constantly feed that instant-information into the Web site.
Note especially that this is not to suggest a two-person reporting
team can take the place
of a strong small-city newspaper reporting staff that covers events
for all people. Rather, both
the interloper online paper and the homegrown IOD target their
reporting only to the needs of the
most advertiser-desired demographic groups and develop information
for them only. With this
targeting, there is no need for a relatively large staff at either
online paper.
This small team from the major newspaper, say the Rocky Mountain News
(RMN) would
establish a Web presence and create its own RMN online daily for
Durango featuring Durango
stories, with additional statewide, national, and international
content coming from its home base
in Denver. The cost would be minimal because no printed version need
be run or distributed; the
RMN online daily for Durango could be easily configured and
customized online; and additional
regional information would be gathered by other similar RMN news
teams in other areas of the
state.
Because this new online RMN daily has news from the local area and
the entire state it
could easily become the choice of a large segment of the
advertiser-preferred local population.
This kind of competitive environment could be created in any number
of small cities in a region
in which one central city dominates. The potential harm caused to the
small-city newspaper
leaves one legitimately concerned about the collapse of the range of
media voices of the region
into one.
22 A thought experiment
The small-city newspaper knee-jerk response to the outsider would be
to remind readers
that they are local. And because they are local they can give the
local people what they really
need. Localization has long been used by newspapers large and small
to attempt to bring a
differentiating value to the publication, but localization alone may
fall flat as a value to the
reader/viewer. It is only when the meaning of localization is brought
home to the newspaper
reader or TV viewer in significant ways that localization matters.
The current practice of
advertising a TV channel's news as being local completely fails to
address this issue of
meaningfulness, and likely fails to deliver its promise to the
viewers, or the station.
The Wal-Martification of the small-city press.
A second possibility is similar to the one above, but potentially
even more threatening in
the sense of lost voices. Consider the notion that the Los Angeles
Times or the New York Times
establishes a several-person staff in each of a number of small
cities in the region and produces
online dailies specific to each of them, complete with relevant
national and international
information that comes from the central publishing enterprise. While
some may believe that the
large-city paper would never be accepted by the small-city folk, that
may well be
underestimating the desire for national and international information
people expect from a news
source -- USA Today is found in convenience stores or in newsstands
across the country.
With the above, not only is there a loss of the diversity of voices,
but the advertising
revenues would be removed from the cities. This is money that
currently stays within the
community.
What may be most interesting, however, is that all of this has not
yet begun to take place
on a wholesale level. While this paper started with an examination of
the imagination-seductive
4G technology and its potential for real-time, inexpensive wireless
delivery of video and other
23 A thought experiment
information, it is not a necessary component for the new competitive
landscape to begin to
emerge. The 4G or 5G technology will be necessary for the competitive
levels to develop fully,
however.
It may be that the larger papers have just been assuring themselves
that an online paper
can deliver a reliable revenue stream before they make their move
into the small city.
And as small-city newspapers go increasingly online and learn how
they can use black
ink instead of red, proving the viability of their particular market,
they become targets for the
larger papers or a small group of local bloggers. Not for purchase,
but to compete head-to-head
and take it down with their new online paper with no real overhead,
and each with access to a
unique wealth of information.
This is certainly not the preordained end of traditional media in the
small city. The local
media and people have a lot of shared social history and there is a
cultural history of trust and
civic involvement. Local media can leverage that goodwill and history
as they move online and
establish their presence there.
However, the very market these traditional media need to attract in
order to continue as
businesses, the younger market, is not picking up the newspaper habit
as was predicted, and this
younger market is likewise turning away from old technology, like TV
(Power user, 2004, p. 15).
We can expect that the real battle will be waged for these younger
people who represent the very
future of the media and its advertising.
The advantage then goes to the medium which is best able to meet the needs and
expectations of that younger market by providing truly innovative and
preemptive use of the
Web, and delivering content that has meaning to the target. So far,
unfortunately, we see little of
this from traditional print and television in the small city. Or
large-city media, for that matter.
24 A thought experiment
Conclusion
How can the current small-city newspaper deal with this coming 4G
potential? In terms
of technology, the newspaper will become TV news on the Web, with
several distinct advantages
and differences. Above all, the paper must recognize that it is not
dealing so much with a new
technology, as it is the real changing relationship it must manage
with its readers and the
community's television viewers as 4G takes hold.
The small-city newspaper must realize its own historical advantages
in terms of depthreporting
and its position as the community touchstone. And yes, while doing
these noble things,
the small-city newspaper must also look at ways to incorporate games,
full-motion and creative
entertainment listings, and other non-traditional offerings into the
online version to attract the
young reader. It must do these things before 4G becomes the rule in
as short a time as a few
years.
Because at that point, competitors will have taken their long-held
position away. 25 A thought experiment
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