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AN EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF ORGANIZATION-ACTIVIST RELATIONSHIPS
Elizabeth Dougall Ph.D. Assistant Professor, School of Journalism & Mass Communication University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Campus Box 3365, Chapel Hill NC 27599-3365 Phone: (919) 962-6396 Email: [log in to unmask]
Paper submitted April 1 to the AEJMC Public Relations Division (Open Division) for the AEJMC Convention San Antonio, Texas August 10-13, 2005. Abstract
The public opinion environment is conceptualized as a set of issues that concern the focal population and their activist publics. An evolutionary model of organization-activist relationships (EOAR) is developed, and the propositions derived from this model are explored using a comparative case study approach. These propositions anticipate and specify associations between variations in dimensions of the public opinion environment of an organizational population and the evolution of organization-activist relationships in the population. Variations in this "issue set," are described using four dimensions: stability (turnover of issues), complexity (the number of issues in the issue set), intensity (volume of media coverage), and direction (favorability of media coverage for the focal population). To capture the evolution of the focal relationships, their state is described on a conflict continuum using relationship-signaling statements made by organizations and activists and published by the media. Three cases studies from the same organizational population, Australia's major banks, are compared over three different but consecutive seven-year periods from 1981 to 2001. The case studies included the extensive review of industry reports and several government inquiries, as well as the content analysis of more than 6, 500 newspaper articles published during each of the three case study periods. AN EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF ORGANIZATION-ACTIVIST RELATIONSHIPS
Arthur W. Page, was credited with arguing, more than half a century ago, that in a democracy all business begins with the public's permission and exists by public approval (Newsom, Van Slyke Turk, & Kruckeberg, 2000). Organizations seek to be accepted by their publics, the general public, opinion leaders, and government officials. In this way, they achieve legitimacy. In her book, Researching the Public Opinion Environment, Devereaux Ferguson (2000) argued that corporations and governments alike must face the challenge of coping with "a volatile public opinion environment" (p. ix). However, the nature of the organizational public opinion environment, its dimensions and characteristics, remains largely unspecified. While the term "public opinion environment" appears intermittently in scholarly and trade publications, the dimensions and characteristics of this aspect of organizational environments remain largely unspecified. The contention that the economic and social stability of an organization of any type depends on the attitudes and opinions of multiple publics; in other words, the public opinion environment is fundamental to public relations practice and scholarship (Newsom, et al., 2000). On closer examination, this implicitly ecological concept appears opaque and invites a range of questions. What are the properties of this public opinion environment, and how can its composition be captured? In what ways does the public opinion environment change over time, and how can that change be characterized? What are the impacts of this "volatile" public opinion environment for organization-public relationships? This paper explores two challenges—the first is to conceptualize and measure variation in an important aspect of contemporary organizational environments, the public opinion environment, and the second is to investigate the influence of that environment on the critical and often highly exposed relationships between organizations and their activist publics. Such publics include employee unions, consumer advocates, and shareholder associations. In suggesting a relationship between variation in the environment and the evolutionary pathways of organizational relationships, the perspective underpinning this study is both ecological and evolutionary. Emerging from the contention that the public opinion environment is an important environmental sector that similarly affects and constrains an organizational population, this study investigates the abiding research problem of whether variations in the dimensions of that environment are associated with the ways in which organization-activist relationships in that population evolve. Classic hypotheses were inappropriate for this exploratory study. Instead, the evolutionary model of organization-activist relationships (EOAR) is proposed and four propositions advanced. The Literature
The evolutionary model of organization-activist relationships emerged primarily from the research and literature of organizational sociology, public opinion, social movements and public relations. That literature is now briefly reviewed. Contemporary perspectives of public opinion theory and research related to the organizational context of this study are briefly explored. Two fundamental concepts—publics and the contested issues around which they organize—are of particular interest. Next, the ecological perspective in which the concept of the organizational population is embedded is explicated and the evolutionary approach framing the discussion of organization-activist relationships explained. The perspective of public relations as relationship management is relatively new but important for contemporary public relations theory and practice, so in the third section of this review the place of activist publics in the emerging organization-public relationships research agenda is argued. Finally, the propositions of the evolutionary model of organization-activist relationships (EOAR) model are explored. The Public Opinion Environment of Organizations - An Ecological Perspective The public opinion environment is conceptualized as an aggregation or set of issues that concern organizations and their publics. These issues are shared by organizations that occupy similar niches and are similarly constrained by a common environmental setting; that is, an organizational population. In the same way that biologists study the relationships of populations of organisms to the carrying capacity of their environments—the capacity of environments to sustain and constrain the organisms of interest—population ecologists study populations of organizations and the carrying capacities of their environments. The ecological approach to understanding organizations predicts that environmental factors "select" those organizational characteristics that best fit the environment and that when environments change, some types or "forms" of organizations become obsolete and die while others survive and even become more viable (Aldrich, 1979, 1999; Baum & Singh, 1994; Carroll, 1988; Hannan & Freeman, 1977, 1989). The goal of the ecological perspective is to understand the forces that shape populations of organizations over long time spans (Hannan & Freeman, 1989). The ecological perspective interprets organizational change, not as progress, but as simply achieving a better fit with the environment (Hall, 2002). In response to criticisms of organizational ecology as deterministic, Hannan and Freeman (1989) describe their models as probabilistic, arguing that the individual actions deemed so critical by strategic management theorists may be important for individual organizations and their departments but are much less important for the population of organizations in which that organization is situated. Ecological research emerges from longitudinal studies, and strongly comparable empirical findings across studies are delivered by organizational ecologists because they are "consistently using the same essential variable definitions and measurements" (Lewin & Volberda, 1999, p. 519). Organizational ecologists characterize successful organizations as having structural inertia, meaning that the capacity of these organizations to adapt is limited, and they adapt slowly, if at all (Hannan & Freeman, 1989). In contrast, strategic management theories focus on adaptation within individual organizations as a function of their internal strategy and design decisions (Lewin & Volberda, 1999). The second perspective dominates contemporary public relations theory, much of which assumes that organizations are highly adaptive, that structural changes can and should occur in response to environmental variation, and that the role of public relations is to support and facilitate the organization as it adjusts and adapts to a changing environment (Everett, 2001). A fundamental contention of organization ecology is that successful organizations are not flexible, adapt slowly or not at all, and are more likely to fail when undertaking fundamental change (Hannan & Freeman, 1977, 1989). This contention contrasts starkly with the assumptions of continuous adaptation that prevail in the ecological models of public relations (Everett, 2001). He argues that the continuous adaptation processes described in public relations theory may actually serve to increase the risk of failure for an organization that has successfully implemented a change program. These models also fail to accommodate the role of selection in describing the relationship between organizational environments and the direction and implementation of the public relations activities and strategies of organizations (Everett, 2001). By acknowledging the power of other organizations in the environment, the ecological perspective counters and offers correctives to public relations research that treats the individual organization as an actor without a setting and other actors (Cheney & Vibbert, 1987). In addition to providing the organizational population as a level of analysis, the ecological perspective challenges traditional approaches to public relations theory building. This perspective provides a contrasting viewpoint from which to understand the interplay between environments, organizations, and publics by focusing on the specific associations between variations in one important sector, the public opinion environment, and the evidence of relationships that similarly constrained organizations have with their activist publics. Publics and Issues Publics and issues are "core concepts in public relations" (Botan & Taylor, 2004, p. 654) and both are central to this conceptualization of the public opinion environment. An issue is created when one or more human agents attach significance to a situation or perceived problem (Crable & Vibbert, 1985). Issues are contested because they concern the self-interests of key publics, leading them to support or to oppose the actions and policies of organizations (Heath & Douglas, 1990, 1991). Organizations and their publics share concerns for these issues, even though their positions are often very different (Heath & Douglas, 1990, 1991). Although often conceptualized and described in quite singular terms, issues frequently demand the attention of many organizations and a multitude of publics (Heath, 1997; Smith, 1996; Smith & Ferguson, 2001). In ecological terms, issues are shared by organizations that occupy similar niches and are similarly constrained by a common environmental setting. This idea is effectively captured by the organizational population concept. Activists, together with other important but excluded publics, are not adequately accommodated within established public relations theory and research agendas, and organization-activist relationships are an important but neglected subset of organization-public relationships (Dozier & Lauzen, 2000; Holtzhausen, 2000; Karlberg, 1996). The "organization-centric" approach to understanding activists as organizational problems, has been extensively criticized. Dozier and Lauzen (2000) and Karlberg (1996) asserted that the instrumental bias evident in public relations research into organization-activist public relationships has contributed to a predominantly partisan body of knowledge that seeks to prescribe organizational "solutions" to activist "problems." Activism in organization-public relationships is most often treated in the public relations research literature as undesirable for the organization. Models describing this phenomenon are useful only when they contribute to the organization's capacity to control and limit activism (Grunig, 1992; Grunig & Grunig, 1997; Heath, 1997). Following Dewey's (1927) definition of publics as groups of people who see they have a common interest with respect to an organization and that endeavor "to act through suitable structures and thus to organize itself for oversight and regulation" (p. 29), the perspective of this research is that activist publics, like all other publics, are best understood as a process rather than a "thing" (Botan & Soto, 1988; Botan & Taylor, 2004). Publics "share interpretations of events and actions in their environment. When these interpretations lead to something the public wants addressed, then an issue exists" (Botan & Taylor, p. 655). Activist publics organize around issues and issues are created when "one or more human agents attaches significance to a situation or perceived problem" (Crable & Vibbert, 1985, p. 5). This perspective has more utility for public relations than the description of activist "groups" as a hostile part of the organizational environment. Such a distinction is problematic and redundant in many important contexts. For example, while an employee union is clearly a separate organization, the organizational employees they represent, including those who might be actively seeking some measure of organizational change are clearly "internal" publics. The problem of distinguishing between who or what belongs to the organization, and who or what is part of its environment, is resolved by conceptualizing activists first and foremost, as publics. In other words, while the activist group is always an activist public, the activist public is not always an activist group or organization. The Evolutionary Approach The challenge of detecting associations between environmental variations and variations in the structural or behavioral attributes of organizations is an evolutionary one. To adapt Hutchinson's metaphor (1965), the public opinion environment of the organizational population is the "ecological theatre" in which the particular "evolutionary play" of interest is the evolving organization-activist relationships in the population. The evolutionary approach is evident in this study at several levels. First, it frames the primary research problem, which investigates the associations, if any, between external variation in the public opinion environment of an organizational population and the evolution of organization-activist relationships within that population. Second, implicit in such a framework is the identification of organization-activist relationships in the population as units of selection, the observation of which helps us to explore their evolution. Third, this study applies the evolutionary process of transformation to describe an observable change in the organization-activist relationships in the population. It anticipates that, at the population level of analysis, variations in organization-activist relationships emerge over time in association with variations in the public opinion environment. Evolutionary ecology describes the study of ecological processes in an evolutionary setting (Haila, 1990), and ecological and evolutionary arguments ask complementary questions about the same historical processes (Singh, 1990). Aldrich (1999) contended that the evolutionary approach provided a generic framework for understanding social change and was an overarching framework for other approaches to organizational theory. McKelvey (1994) argued that the theory of competition elaborated by evolutionary ecologists is much less ideological than that posed by economists because it does not rest on so many assumptions about human behavior and rationality. For evolution to occur there must be variations, stable aspects of the environment differentially selecting from these variations, and retention processes that hold on to selected variations (Campbell, 1969). Because every new mutation represents the failure of previously selected forms to be reproduced, variation is inherently at odds with retention (Campbell, 1969). Further, in arguing for the applicability of the evolutionary approach to organizational theory, Allard (1967), Campbell (1969), and later Aldrich (1999) described these mechanisms—variation, selection, and retention—as generic and not limited to biological systems. Aldrich, for instance, argued that these generic processes generate the "critical events occurring in the life histories of organizational entities" (p. 20) and subsuming other change processes. An evolutionary perspective demands that what is being selected be carefully considered. Selection occurs at two levels: bounded entities such as groups and organizations engaging in competition and cooperation, and the routines, operating procedures, and competencies undertaken by these bounded entities (Aldrich, 1999; Baum & Singh, 1994). Organizations can be viewed as "a mix of routines and competencies that can vary somewhat independently of one another and are thus available for selective retention" (Aldrich, p. 36). Organizations are therefore the temporary repositories of competencies and routines that are held by their members and embedded in their technologies, material artefacts, and other structures and processes. Their relationships can be found within the structures and processes of organizations. Just as organizations are embedded within populations of like organizations, so too are the relationships organizations have with activist publics and others. Organizational relationships diffuse variations (Burns & Wholey, 1993; Leonard-Barton, 1995), and "within-population" relationships "can be a route through which successful routines are transferred" (Aldrich, 1999, p. 236). The research problem addressed here investigates whether variations in organization-activist relationships within the focal organizational population emerge over time in response to variations in the public opinion environment. Selection and retention of some variations occur, and organization-activist relationships undergo transformation if, and when, a major change in the relationship occurs. The Place of Relationships in Public Relations Most contemporary approaches to exploring organizational relationships are useful for capturing the state of a focal organizational relationship at a point in time or over a limited period (Ledingham & Bruning, 1998, 2000a; Huang, 1997, 2001). However, such approaches are not as useful for exploring the relationships at the organizational population level of analysis for a timeframe adequate to that demanded by ecological and evolutionary perspectives. While organizational relationships are almost exclusively studied and understood using the perceptions of the parties in the relationships, Broom et al. (1997, 2000) provided a model for identifying relationship processes and structures at the organization-public level of analysis. Drawing extensively from the interpersonal and interorganizational literature, they argued that organization-public relationships can be described and studied as objective phenomena that are not limited to the subjective experiences of individual participants, and have properties other than the perceptions of those involved (Broom et al., 1997, 2000). This perspective offers the most utility for describing the evolution of organization-activist relationships. Emerging predominantly from interorganizational relationship theory (Aldrich, 1979; Galaskiewicz, 1985; Van de Ven, 1976), Broom et al. (1997) argued that organization-public relationships are the dynamic results of exchanges and reciprocity, and that they are able to be described at any given point in time. They offered the following definition: Organization-public relationships are represented by the patterns of interaction, transaction, exchange, and linkage between an organization and its publics. These relationships have properties that are distinct from the identities, attributes, and perceptions of the individuals and social collectivities in the relationships. Though dynamic in nature, organization-public relationships can be described at a single point in time and tracked over time (2000, p.18). Others have taken a broader approach to defining organization-public relationships. Ledingham and Bruning (1998), for instance, defined organization-public relationships as the state existing between an organization and its key publics "in which the actions of either entity impact the economic, social, political and/or cultural well-being of the other entity" (Ledingham & Bruning, 1998, p. 62). They also offer a definition of the "ideal" organization-public relationship as "the state that exists between an organization and its key publics that provides economic, social, political and/or cultural benefits to all parties involved and is characterized by mutual positive regard" (p. 62). Based on extensive conceptual development and empirical data, Huang (1998) defined organization-public relationships as "the degree that the organization and its publics trust one another, agree on one has rightful power to influence, experience satisfaction with each other, and commit oneself to one another" (p. 12). Grunig and Huang (2000) specified the properties defining relationships, especially good relationships, and proposed that the most important dimensions of relationships are control, mutuality, trust, relational satisfaction, and relational commitment and goal attainment. While the definitions and approaches offered by Ledingham & Bruning (1998, 2000a, 2000b), Huang (1997, 2001) and Grunig & Huang (2000) are useful for understanding organization-public relationships from the perspective of individuals involved in these relationships, they have limited utility for exploring the relationships within an organizational population over a period of time. Such approaches have no utility for exploring relationships at the organizational population level of analysis and are also inadequate when the theoretical paradigm demands more than a snapshot in time.
The Evolutionary Model of Organization-Activist Relationships (EOAR) The propositions of the EOAR model are detailed in Figure 1. One of the challenges of this study was to locate a meaningful and practicable way of describing the evolving organization-activist relationships at the population level of analysis. The nature of organization-activist relationships presupposes a degree of conflict as activists typically seek to precipitate or prevent organizational change and organizations resist activist pressures (Grunig, 1992; Smith & Ferguson, 2001). Measures may be applied over time to describe the degree of conflict and cooperation in organizational relationships (Ehling, 1992). The description of cooperation as the natural opposite of conflict (Ehling, 1992; Levinger & Rubin, 1994) provides a precedent for the conflict continuum described in Table 1 and embedded in the EOAR model (see Figure 1). These two ends of this continuum describe extreme and probably rare cases that provide useful theoretical boundaries but are not expected to represent the state of most organization-activist relationships; as Murphy (1991) explained, most situations "are located somewhere along the continuum" (p. 126).
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The concept of information flows is applied in this study to locate the state of these relationships on a conflict continuum. Information flows are essential processes within all organizational relationships (Broom et al., 1997, 2000) and more specifically within the organization-activist relationships considered in this study. Because of their role in covering the issues around which activists organize, the news media have an important role in organization-activist relationships, and evidence of these relationships is frequently visible in news media coverage (Grunig, 1992; Heath, 1997; Huang, 1997; Olien, Tichenor, & Donahue, 1989, 1995; Smith & Ferguson, 2001). These information flows provide cues about the state of relationships to the organizations and activists and to interested observers. The assumptions made to operationalize the conflict continuum are that organizations and activists signal the state of their relationships in public statements about their shared issues of concern and that some of these statements are reported by the news media. It is from this evidence that conclusions about the degree of conflict or cooperation are drawn. The dimensions of the public opinion environment organizing the EOAR model are now advanced. These dimensions—stability, complexity, intensity, and direction—provide the apparatus with which variations in the public opinion environment of the focal organizational population are identified and measured. The foundations for the propositions of this model are now discussed (see Figure 1).
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Stability of organizational environments and evolving organization-activist relationships. One of the primary dimensions of environments is the extent to which they are static or dynamic (Duncan, 1972). Stability or instability typically "refers to the extent of turnover of elements or parts of the environment" (Hall, 2002, p. 212). Much of the literature in organization theory suggests that turnover, absence of pattern, and unpredictability are the best measures of environmental stability-instability (Dess & Beard, 1984). Stable and certain environments generate low levels of diversity (Hannan & Freeman, 1989), and a less diverse environment is simpler for organizations to operate within since they can develop standardized ways of responding (Hall, 2002). The concept of stability is applied here to describe the turnover of issues in the issue set comprising the public opinion environment of the focal organizational population. A stable public opinion environment is evident when the turnover of issues in the issue set is very low. Conversely, an unstable public opinion environment is characterized by high issue turnover. The turnover of issues has two critical implications for organization-activist relationships. First, the extent and standardization of relationship routines and interactions are linked to environmental certainty. Second, issue longevity affects the duration of the relationships around which they are organized, creating opportunities for issue resolution. When the issue set in the public opinion environment is stable, allowing organizations and activist publics to organize their interactions and establish routines that require some degree of cooperation in relation to issues of concern, these relationships are more likely to move toward a cooperative state. In an unstable public opinion environment in which issue turnover is high, uncertainty is high, and routines and standards in relationships are not evident, the opportunity and motive to advance the resolution of issues cooperatively are more limited. Organization-activist relationships within the focal population are therefore expected to move toward a conflict state in an unstable public opinion environment. The stability proposition. The first proposition of the EOAR model is, therefore, that as the stability of the issue set in the public opinion environment increases, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a cooperative state. Complexity of organizational environments and evolving organization-activist relationships. Environmental complexity describes the number and variety of activities and situations with which organizations must interconnect over time (Hall, 2002). Dess and Beard (1984) applied the term complexity to capture the degree to which organizational environments are heterogeneous or homogeneous and the extent to which they are concentrated or dispersed. In the public opinion environment of an organizational population, as the number and diversity of issues to be negotiated increases, so too does the complexity of interactions demanded. In this study, complexity is described by the number of issues in the issue set with which the organizational population must contend. Complexity is described by the number of issues of concern to the organizational population and is measured by the number of issues in the issue set at intervals over time. The number of issues in the issue set impacts the organizational population and its activist relationships in two ways. First, attempts to negotiate, resolve, or deal in other ways with issues demand the dedication of people, time, and other organizational resources. More issues means higher demands on organizational resources, and as these resources are spread more thinly, the resolution of some issues are given lower priority (Heath, 1997). Second, activist publics organize around issues. More issues means more activist publics vying to advance their interests and more relationships for the organizational population to sustain. Again, the increasing complexity of issues adds pressure to the finite human and other resources of the organizational population. An increasingly complex public opinion environment is evident when the number of issues multiplies, competition for the organizational and other resources rises, and the number of relationships to negotiate increases. Under such conditions of increasing issue-set complexity, the opportunity to deal with issues of mutual concern cooperatively is constrained, and organization-activist relationships in the focal population are more likely to move toward a conflict state. When issue-set complexity decreases and fewer issues comprise the issue set, organization-activist relationships are more likely to move toward a cooperative state. The complexity proposition. Emerging from this discussion is the second proposition of the EAOR model: as the complexity of the issue set in the public opinion environment increases, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a conflict state. Intensity of organizational environments and evolving organization-activist relationships. The third dimension of the public opinion environment, intensity, is derived from the public opinion literature and describes how strongly opinions are held by publics (Glynn, Herbst, O'Keefe & Shapiro, 1999). From an ecological perspective, the intensity of the public opinion environment of an organizational population is embedded in the concept of legitimacy, which is "a generalized perception or assumption that the actions of an entity are desirable, proper, or appropriate within some socially constructed system of norms, values, beliefs and definitions" (Suchman, 1995, p. 574). Intensity is applied here as an indicator of the extent of the public opinion environment confronting the organizational population and is described by the volume of media coverage of issues in the issue set. Discussions of intensity and the evolving organization-relationship revolve around two related points. First, there is consistent evidence of a relationship between the volume of media coverage and the level of public concern for an issue (McCombs & Shaw, 1972; Neuman, 1990). Second, increased media coverage is an important indicator of an expanding audience for issues, and conflicting parties are likely to take tougher and more extreme positions as the size of the audience grows (Levinger & Rubin, 1994). Under conditions of sustained intensity, the audience expands, and opportunities for organizations and their activist publics to deal cooperatively with their issues of mutual concern decline. The intensity proposition. Therefore, the third proposition of the EOAR model is that as the intensity of the issue set in the public opinion environment increases, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a conflict state. Direction of organizational environments and evolving organization-activist relationships. The direction dimension is derived from the public opinion literature and describes where people position themselves in relation to issues (Glynn et al., 1999). Using the favorability of media coverage as an indicator of public opinion, direction is applied to describe the degree to which the activities of organizations attract public support or favor (Deegan, Rankin & Voght, 2000; Deegan, Rankin & Tobin, 2002; Deephouse, 2000). Strongly positive public opinion about organizational activities and interests contributes to increased credibility and acceptance, and these are important indicators of organizational legitimacy (Deegan et al., 2002). Direction is applied here to capture the favorability of the focal organizational population's public opinion environment as described by the extent to which the media coverage of the organizational population is favorable. A favorable public opinion environment is one in which media coverage of issues in the issue set is predominantly positive for the organizational population, and an unfavorable public opinion environment is evident when media coverage of issues is primarily negative. In the context of organization-activist relationships, it is anticipated that when organizational populations experience predominantly negative media coverage, that is, an unfavorable public opinion environment, they address this situation by attempting to increase their degree of cooperation with their activist publics. As the public opinion environment becomes more favorable, the degree of cooperation in organization-activist relationships decreases as the pressure for the organizational population to resolve issues reduces. The direction proposition. The fourth and final proposition of the EOAR model is that as the direction of the issue set in the public opinion environment becomes less favorable, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a cooperative state. Method The theoretical orientation of this study excludes static or cross-sectional research approaches and sets the imperative for a methodology that is simultaneously exploratory and longitudinal. The comparative case study method was selected as an appropriate framework with which to describe and explore the public opinion environment of the focal population and the organization-activist relationships embedded in that setting. To be effective, comparative case studies must permit structured and focused comparisons, and this demands the disciplined and systematic collection of data (George & McKeown, 1985; King, Keohane & Verba, 1994; Verba, 1967). The timeframe. The timeframe imperative is located in the ecological and evolutionary perspectives of the EOAR model. This study examines the 21 years following deregulation in 1981, which encompassed episodes of upheaval and relative stability. Prior to 1981, significant events in the banking and finance sector included the passing of the Banking Act 1945, the separation of the Commonwealth and Reserve Banks in 1959, and the 1974 passage of legislation that aimed to regulate the activities of non-bank financial institutions (Thomson & Abbott, 2000). While these events may have provided useful starting points for a different kind of study, the imperative of this research is to capture changes in this environment that help to elaborate the propositions of the EOAR model. The year 1981 is a logical and pragmatic starting point because of the shift in the regulatory climate that occurred around that time in response to the wider social and political changes. Those 21 years are divided into logically derived and purposively selected case studies representing three seven-year periods. These three periods constitute loosely significant and natural boundaries in the life of the organizational population. The focal population. Political, economic, cultural, technological, and other environmental dimensions similarly constrain Australia's major banks, and while these may be differentiated by their marketing and operational policies, there are uniform national laws and regulations to which all must adhere. For the 21 years of interest to this study and for many preceding years, the major banks operated within a relatively consistent regulatory environment in which they were required to abide by federal regulations and report to federally appointed agencies with responsibilities and powers in place nationally. Banks are intermittently subject to the attentions of activist publics, including trade unions, farmer advocacy groups, and retail consumer associations. Because of the scrutiny historically paid to the major banks by governments, activists, the media, and various other interest groups and influencers, rich sources of accessible data are therefore available to build these case studies. Units of analysis. The two units of analysis important to this study are the public opinion environment of the organizational population and the organization-activist relationships within that population. To explore the propositions of the EOAR model, I have operationalised these units of analysis as the issue set for the major banks and the aggregation of public statements from which the state of the organization-activist relationships can be interpreted. Collection procedures. Data were systematically sampled from a selection of the largest circulating national and state newspapers in Australia from April, 1981 to October, 2001. The newspapers selected were The Australian, Australian Financial Review, The Age, Sydney Morning Herald, and Courier Mail. Data from the nominated print media sources were extracted systematically from the same two months every year in each seven-year case study. Every sixth month, specifically April and October, was selected because of the critical position of these months for the population before and after the financial year-end of June 30. These are important months in bank reporting cycles during which annual results and shareholder meetings are often conducted or forecast (October) and quarterly results are posted or projected (April). The data were managed using SPSS for Windows, version 11.5. Government and other reports as sources of evidence. To provide a framework for the interpretation and analysis of the newspaper coverage, the reports from several major government inquiries, industry reports, and scholarly articles were reviewed. The primary source documents were the reports from major Commonwealth government inquiries, beginning with the Campbell Report in 1981, the Martin Committee of Review in 1983, the 1991 House of Representatives Standing committee on Finance and Public Administration (Martin Parliamentary committee), the Financial System Inquiry of 1996, known as the Wallis Inquiry, and the Report of the Royal Commission into HIH Insurance (2003). Submissions made to those inquiries by industry groups, community and church organizations, and various activist publics appearing as supplements to these reports were integral to this phase of evidence gathering. Also important were news media reports concerning the findings of these committees of inquiry. From this framework a detailed schedule with which to code the issue set and to map the nature of bank-activist relationships was derived and applied to the extraction and analysis of newspaper coverage. Describing the issue sets. The coding schedule consisted of 24 issue classifications and included three options for the classification of issues. While many articles described more than one issue, relatively few articles primarily covered more than three issues with any degree of depth. The additional resource demands at both the coding and the analysis phases outweighed the diminishing benefits of recording more than three issues for each article. This schedule specified standard publication details for each article, including source, date, and page number. The articles were coded for issues evident, the banks named, and the activist publics named. The content of the article in relation to its direction, favorable or otherwise, to the major banks was then coded for an overall impression. Articles were rated as favorable when the major banks were praised for their actions or associated with positively constructed actions (Deephouse, 2000) or where the content indicated that the operations, strategies, or performance of the banks was beneficial to, or in harmony with, the social environment (Deegan et al., 2002). Articles were rated as unfavorable when the focal banks were criticized for their actions or associated with negatively constructed actions that past research indicated have been found to negatively impact public opinion (Deegan et al., 2002; Deephouse, 2000). A neutral rating was given when the article reported performance without any evaluative modifiers or when there was a balance of favorable and unfavorable reporting. These articles typically provided straightforward reports of bank operations, strategies, or performance and were neither positively nor negatively constructed. Appropriate reliability checks were undertaken. Holsti's (1969) coefficient of reliability was applied. The results of those interrater agreement tests are split into three outcomes for each case study: publication details and actors (banks and activist publics), the issue set, and the direction of favorability. For publication details and actors specified in the article, interrater reliability was 0.99, 0.99, and 0.98 for case one, two, and three respectively. The second outcome related to the issues evident in these articles. For this category, interrater reliability was 0.96 for case one and 0.95 for cases two and three. The interrater reliability for issue-set direction of favorability was 0.85 for case one, 0.87 for case two, and 0.78 for case three. While the interrater reliability was lower for this category, it was considered acceptable given the exploratory nature of this research (Riffe et al., 1998; Weber, 1990). Also, when coding for something other than manifest content, interrater reliability is usually lower (Holsti, 1969). Describing organization-activist relationships. Concurrent with the issue-set coding, each recording unit was coded for the state of organization-activist public relationships in the population. The recording unit for the organization-activist relationship was defined as the comments contained within a single sentence that referred to issues in the issue set and were directly or indirectly attributed to the major banks or their activist publics; in other words, the recording units were the direct or indirect quotes reported in newspaper articles attributed to either banks or activists. The coding scheme required the coder to specify the standard publication details as derived from the public opinion environment analysis, to specify the bank or activist source of the statement, and finally to specify the relationship as reflecting either a cooperative, a conflict, or a neutral state. The full text of each public statement from the sampled articles amounted to 2,175; 5,103; and 4, 646 recording units for analysis for case studies one, two, and three respectively. The interrater outcomes were 0.87, 0.84, and 0.81 for cases one, two, and three respectively. Before the data were entered, the coders reconciled disagreements in one of two ways. If two of the three coders agreed, the coding decision favored the majority view. If the coders failed to agree, I reviewed the statement and made a final decision. Measurement and Analysis While the case studies emerged from an extensive data set, each case is built around 14 data points, specifically 14 months sampled over seven years. It is only when the three cases were compared across all 42 months that sufficient data points were available to observe the presence or absence of significant relationships using appropriate statistical methods. The stability, intensity, complexity and direction of the issue sets and the state of the bank-activist relationships were reported for each case. Variations in the dimensions of the issue sets between the months sampled and described the evolving bank-activist relationships were determined. To assess the issue-set stability, I compared the data for two months, for example April, 1998 and October, 1998, or October, 1987 and April, 1988, and observed the turnover of issues. For example, if exactly the same 20 issues appeared in two consecutive months, stability was recorded as 0.0, that is zero turnover of issues. To assess issue-set complexity, I extracted the issue sets for each month specified in each case study, as described by frequency reports on the issues evident. I then made a simple calculation of the number of different issues appearing in each of the selected months. Complexity was therefore a calculation of the number of different issues evident during each month selected. Issue-set intensity was assessed by making a simple calculation of the number of articles appearing in each of the selected months. To assess issue-set direction, articles were coded as favorable (1), unfavorable (-1), or neutral (0) to the organizational population. Each article was given equal weight in the measure. For each period, I aggregated the recording units for analysis using the coefficient of imbalance originally developed by Janis and Fadner (1965) to analyze wartime propaganda. I applied this coefficient for this study to measure the relative proportion of favorable to unfavorable articles while controlling for the overall volume of articles. Its formula is: (f2 – fu)/(total) 2 if f > u; OR 0 if f = u; OR (fu-u2) / (total)2 if u> f In a given period, "f" equals the number of favorable recording units, "u" equals the number of unfavorable recording units, and total equals the sum of the number of favorable, unfavorable and neutral recording units (Deephouse, 2000; Janis & Fadner, 1965). This calculation was made for each of the selected months in each case study. To measure the organization-activist relationship state, relationship-signaling statements were coded as indicating cooperation (1), conflict (-1) or neutral (0). I then aggregated the scores for the months selected. Interpretations as to the state of these relationships emerged from descriptive and enumerative approaches to measurement. First, for each month, I aggregated the total frequencies of conflict, cooperative, and neutral statements and made notes describing the relationship state using a standardized set of phrases, such as "very low conflict, some cooperation evident—moving toward a co-operative state from low to very low. On the basis of this detailed description, I interpreted whether the relationship state was moving toward a conflict or a cooperative state or remaining static. Second, to effectively measure the relative proportion of statements reflecting a conflict state in comparison to those reflecting a cooperative state and controlling for the overall volume of statements, I applied Janis and Fadner's (1965) coefficient of imbalance. The outcomes for each month were used to place the relationship on the continuum between -1 (total conflict) and 1 (total cooperation). The outcomes of both descriptive and enumerate approaches in order to better understand the data set. While the coefficient of imbalance provides a useful measure of the relationship state, the descriptive approach provides a more detailed understanding of this data in relation to the interplay between the two groups, banks and activists, and variations in manifest conflict, cooperation, and neutrality. These insights are invaluable for interpreting the results of the analysis in relation to the propositions of the EOAR model. To analyze these separate and distinct sets of data—the issue set and bank-activist relationships—I organized the outcomes for each issue-set dimension and for the bank-activist relationships for each case using tables and graphs (Miles & Huberman, 1994). I then made interpretations about the extent to which the outcomes support, oppose, or are neutral in relation to the propositions of the EOAR model. For example, if the intensity proposition of the EOAR model was supported in 7 of the 14 months sampled, that is, if intensity increased and bank-activist relationships moved toward conflict, or intensity decreased and the relationships moved toward cooperation, the result was reported as follows: "Support for the intensity proposition is evident in 50% of the months sampled (n = 7)." In the second, comparative phase of this analysis, I explored the data for evidence of any statistically significant associations between variations in issue-set stability, complexity, intensity and direction, and the bank-activist relationships. Using the Pearson product-moment correlation, I analyzed the data for all 42 months sampled across the three case studies for significant relationships. These outcomes were intended only to supplement this exploration given the small sample size and were thus treated conservatively. The results of the data analysis for each case study and the comparison of all three case studies are now reported.
Results
Stability and Evolving Bank-Activist Relationships The first proposition of the EOAR model contends that, as the stability of the issue set in the public opinion environment increased, organization-activist relationships in the population moved toward a cooperative state. Using the Pearson product-moment correlation, no significant relationship emerged between variations in issue-set stability and the location of bank-activist relationships on the conflict continuum. To further explore the stability proposition, the bank-activist relationship data was analyzed using the raw frequencies of conflict, cooperative, and neutral statements. Some significant relationships emerged between variations in issue-set stability and the frequencies of these statements. As issue-set stability decreased and issue turnover increased, the number of cooperative statements made by the banks increased, r = -0.327, p < 0.05 (one-tailed), as did the frequency of conflict statements made by the activists, r = -0.258, p < 0.05 (one-tailed). When the frequencies for conflict, cooperative, and neutral statements from both banks and activists were aggregated, significant relationships between issue-set stability and the frequencies of neutral and cooperative statements emerged. When issue stability decreased, the frequency of neutral statements increased, r = -0.261, p < 0.05 (one-tailed), as did the frequency of cooperative statements r = -0.287, p < 0.05 (one-tailed). When the stability of the issue set decreased and there was an increase in the turnover of issues in the issue set, the banks were more likely to make cooperative and neutral statements, while the activists were more likely to make statements indicating a conflict state. Complexity and Evolving Bank-Activist Relationships The complexity proposition of the EAOR model contends that, as the number of issues in the public opinion environment increased, as described by the issue set, organization-activist relationships in the population moved toward a conflict state. The complexity proposition was not supported. To further explore the complexity proposition, raw frequencies of conflict, cooperative, and neutral statements were analyzed using the Pearson product-moment correlation. Significant relationships emerged between variations in issue-set complexity and the frequencies of conflict, cooperative, and neutral statements from which conclusions about the state of bank-activist relationships were derived. As issue-set complexity increased, so, too, did the total number of conflict, cooperative, and neutral statements, r = 0.567, p < 0.01 (one-tailed). As complexity increased, both banks and activists tended to generate more relationship-signaling statements. Other ways to effectively describe the complexity of the issue set were considered. The concept of complexity as the number of activists that the banks must engage with, or respond to, over issues of concern was explored. The foundations of this conceptualization of complexity emerged from the interorganizational relationship literature, in which the number of relationships an organization must sustain is considered to be an important aspect of organizational environments (Aldrich, 1979; Broom et al., 1997, 2000; Hall, 2002; Van de Ven, 1976). The complexity of activist publics was therefore operationalized as the number of bank-activist relationships in the issue set, as described by the number of activist publics mentioned in the print media coverage. The "complexity of activist relationships" proposition anticipated that any increase in the frequencies with which activist publics were mentioned would be associated with bank-activist relationships moving toward a conflict state, and any decrease would be associated with moves toward a cooperative state. The frequencies with which activist publics were mentioned were extracted and aggregated for each month, and the outcomes explored in relation to this "complexity of activist relationships" proposition. A significant, but not strong relationship was detected between the complexity of activist relationships and the total bank-activist relationship outcome, r = -0.280, p < 0.05 (one-tailed). Intensity and Evolving Bank-Activist Relationships The intensity proposition of the EOAR model contended that, as the intensity of the public opinion environment increased, organization-activist relationships in the population moved toward a conflict state, and as issue-set intensity decreased, these relationships moved toward a cooperative state. Issue-set intensity varied from a low of 18 articles in April of 1981 to a high of 356 articles in April of 1992. Using the Pearson product-moment correlation, I could not detect significant relationships between the intensity of the issue set and the location of bank-activist relationships on the conflict continuum. Again, this outcome must be treated with caution and is intended only to supplement this exploration given the small sample size. As with the stability and complexity dimensions, significant relationships emerged between intensity and the frequency of conflict statements r = 0.554, p < 0.01 (one-tailed), the frequency of cooperative statements r = 0.444, p < 0.01 (one-tailed), and the frequency of neutral statements r = 0.630, p < 0.01 (one-tailed). It is important not to overstate the significance of this outcome. Intensity described the volume of media coverage, operationalised in this study by the frequency of newspaper articles. Frequencies of bank and activist relationship-signaling statements were extracted from those articles. The fact that the volume of articles and the frequencies of statements increased and decreased in tandem adds little value to this analysis. However, it is important to note that when the increase or decrease in intensity was more extreme, that is more substantial in range, bank-activist relationships were more likely to move along the conflict continuum toward conflict or toward cooperation in the ways anticipated by the propositions of the EOAR model. Direction and Evolving Bank-Activist Relationships The direction proposition anticipates that as the public opinion environment becomes less favorable, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a cooperative state. The direction proposition was supported in just 14.6% of the months analyzed (n = 6) for all three case studies. In each case, the evidence supported the opposite contention; in other words, as issue-set direction varied from favorable to unfavorable, bank-activist relationships were more likely to show evidence of movement toward a conflict state. When I explored the 1981-2001 data using the Pearson product-moment correlation, significant relationships between the direction of the issue set and the frequencies of relationship-signaling statements were evident. Significant relationships emerged between direction and the frequency of conflict statements r = -0.613, p < 0.01 (one-tailed), the frequency of cooperative statements r = -0.395, p < 0.01 (one-tailed), and the frequency of neutral statements r = -0.358, p < 0.01 (one-tailed). As the direction of the issue set became less favorable, the banks generated more cooperative, conflict, and neutral statements, and the banks made fewer relationship-signaling statements when the direction was more favorable, r = -0.445, p < 0.01 (one-tailed). The activists responded similarly with more or less relationship-signaling statements associated with issue-set direction, r = -0.507, p < 0.01 (one-tailed). Evidence therefore emerged to support the contention that, as the issue set grew more unfavorable, the frequency of relationship-signaling statements increased. In other words, when the anticipated associations between issue-set favorability and bank-activist relationships were reversed, the revised proposition was well supported.
Discussion
When organization-activist relationships are described at the population level of analysis, the required lens is necessarily long, and the resulting description is a landscape of change rather than the close-up portrait more familiar to public relations research. Some important aspects of the variation, selection, retention, and transformation of organization-activist relationships were evident using the lens provided by the conflict continuum and the relationship-signaling statements comprising that continuum. The findings are summarized in Figure 2 and suggest that the evolving bank-activist relationships are more tightly coupled to the complexity of activist relationships (number of activist publics), direction (favorability), and intensity (volume of media coverage), than to the stability (issue turnover) and complexity (number of issues) dimensions. The revised EOAR model is described in Figure 3.
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The Stability Proposition The stability propositions of the EOAR model anticipated that, as the issue set stabilized and the turnover of issues decreased, organization-activist relationships in the population moved toward a cooperative state. Although variations in issue-set turnover were not consistently associated with moves toward or away from a conflict state, as anticipated by the EOAR model, some evidence of significant relationships emerged. As the issue set became more unstable and the turnover of issues in the issue set increased, relationship-signaling statements from both banks and activists increased in frequency. More specifically, as the stability of the issue set decreased, the major banks were more likely to generate statements signaling a cooperative relationship state, while their activist publics were more likely to generate statements signaling conflict. Two explanations are offered for the lack of support for the stability proposition. First, in contrast to an issue set that varies frequently, a stable issue set can provide more opportunities for organizations and activists to gather resources and to advance their positions on issues of mutual concern. Second, when issue turnover is higher, the more intermittent media coverage given to issues heightens the challenge for organizations and activists to attract interest to their issues of concern, and this limits the evidence available to track the evolving relationships. One further explanation for the lack of consistent support for the association between a stable public opinion environment and heightened relationship conflict is that, as the issues in the issue set stabilized, organizations and activists had more opportunity to pursue issues of mutual concern, to marshal resources, and to advance and substantiate more sophisticated arguments. In other words, a stable issue set can provide a more conducive environment for a heightened conflict state as activists and organizations have further opportunities to advance their positions on issues of mutual concern—positions that are frequently in opposition and therefore predisposed to conflict. With the time and opportunity provided by issue-set stability, the relationships between the banks and activists become more visible in media coverage. Furthermore, in an unstable public opinion environment characterized by higher issue turnover, it is also potentially difficult for activist publics to build and sustain public interest using the more intermittent media coverage available as attention shifts from one issue to the next. Even if the relationships are in a heightened state of conflict during times of higher issue turnover, less consistent media coverage of the issues of concern means fewer relationship-signaling statements and therefore more limited evidence from which to track the relationships. The Complexity Proposition The complexity proposition of the EOAR model contends that, as issue-set complexity increased, organization-activist relationships moved toward a conflict state, and as complexity decreased, these relationships moved toward a cooperative state on the conflict continuum. The findings of this study do not support these associations. Variations in other dimensions of the public opinion environment were more closely associated with the evolving organization-activist relationships. However, variations in the number of issues were associated with the volume of relationship-signaling statements these organizations and activists generated. Several important points emerge from the consideration of the findings in relation to this proposition. First, the inertia of the issue set—that is, the consistency of the issue set of the focal population—was not anticipated. Because of this inertia, the range of variation evident in the issue set was limited, particularly between the first and third case studies when the number of issues varied only slightly between the months sampled. Second, variations in the number of issues are already accounted for in the stability dimension, and as a single dimension, complexity becomes less useful when variations in complexity are more limited. Third, complexity can be conceptualized in other ways. Two important ways to describe complexity are the number of relationships with which organizations must contend (Hall, 2002; C. Oliver, 1990) and the concentration or dispersion of an environmental sector (Aldrich, 1979; Dess & Beard, 1984). The number of activist publics responding to, or engaging with, issues of concern was operationalized by assessing the frequency with which activist publics are mentioned. In a public opinion environment where complexity increases, as described by the number of activist relationships within the organizational population, the strain on organizational resources also increases. Organizations must then negotiate with multiple publics, either by spreading resources or by prioritizing their publics (Heath, 1997). Specified as one of the important properties of environmental variation, concentration-dispersion is defined from an ecological perspective as the degree to which resources are evenly distributed or concentrated in particular locations (Aldrich, 1979; Dess & Beard, 1984). In the context of the public opinion environment, concentration can be conceptualized on a continuum from highly concentrated to highly dispersed and described by the relative proportions of media coverage given to each issue. A concentrated issue set, therefore, is one in which a few dominant issues attract most of the media coverage, and in a dispersed issue set, public attention is evenly distributed across most issues. A dispersed issue set is characterized by the absence of dominant issues, with media coverage spread evenly across the issue set. The concentration-dispersion aspect of issue-set complexity was not explicitly addressed in the original complexity proposition. However, preliminary consideration of the concentration of the issue set using the data in this study indicated at face value that the higher the concentration of the issue set, the more likely there would be evidence of a heightened state of conflict in the focal bank-activist relationships. Both concentrated and dispersed issue sets were observed, and variations were evident in the degree to which the issue set was more or less concentrated over time. Because the number of issues addressed could not adequately capture issue-set complexity and because there were evident variations in issue-set concentration over time, this aspect of complexity is included in the revised EOAR model (see Figure 3). Revised Proposition 1 As the number of activist publics organized by the issue set increases, organization-activist relationships move toward a conflict state. When the number of activist publics organized by the issue set decreases, organization-activist relationships move toward a cooperative state on the conflict continuum.
Revised Proposition 2 As the concentration-dispersion of the issue set becomes more variable, as described by the range of variation in the proportion of media coverage given to issues, organization-activist relationships move toward a conflict state. The Intensity Proposition The intensity proposition of the EOAR model anticipates that as issue-set intensity increases, bank-activist relationships in the population move toward a conflict state, and when issue-set intensity decreases and the volume of media coverage declines, these same relationships move toward a cooperative state. Limited support for the anticipated associations between important relationship outcomes was most evident from 1988 to 1994. However, evidence emerged to suggest that these associations were more consistent when variations in issue-set intensity were extreme and more random when variations in intensity were small or moderate. While the original intensity proposition accounted for variations in intensity, it did not differentiate between marginal and substantial variations. The range of variation is thus made explicit in the revised intensity proposition of the EOAR model. This anticipates that a more consistent relationship between variations in issue-set intensity and the evolution of organization-activist relationships is likely when the variations in intensity are more extreme (see Figure 3). Revised Proposition 3 As variations in issue-set intensity become more extreme in range, organization-activist relationships are more likely to move toward a conflict or cooperative state in anticipated ways. In other words, as issue-set intensity increases, organization-activist relationships move toward a conflict state, and as issue-set intensity decreases, organization-activist relationships move toward a cooperative state. When variations in issue-set intensity decrease and the range of variation is small or moderate, the anticipated associations with the state of organization-activist relationships are less evident. The Direction Proposition The direction proposition of the EOAR model contends that as the public opinion environment becomes less favorable, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a cooperative state. The associations between bank-activist relationships and the direction propositions of the EOAR were not supported as anticipated. Instead, comparisons of issue-set direction for all three case studies supported the opposite contention; when the issue set became less favorable, bank-activist relationships moved toward a conflict state. While they were quoted more frequently and more extensively, the major banks operated within a consistently unfavorable public opinion environment. In exploring this finding, it is important to reiterate that many of the articles coded as unfavorable did not quote activist publics, but instead included commentary reporting the perspectives of activists or other actors, such as politicians and bureaucrats. Journalists authoring opinion pieces and editorials made critical comments about the major banks, and these contributed to the direction of the public opinion environment, which was most often unfavorable. The focus of media coverage in these case studies was very clearly on the dominant powers, the major banks, with the activities and comments of activist groups selectively and, in relative terms, minimally reported. This gave the appearance of balanced reporting at times, but when total media coverage is systematically sampled, the imbalance evident illustrates the extent to which these publics were kept at the margins of mainstream discourse. What transpired in this media coverage could quite reasonably be described as the ongoing discourse between a select group of journalists, bankers, bureaucrats, and politicians that was occasionally interrupted by comments from activists. The direction proposition correctly anticipated that when the direction of the public opinion environment became unfavorable, the banks would respond by making fewer conflict statements and more cooperative and neutral statements. While more evidence of cooperation in the form of cooperative statements from banks was apparent in the findings of this study, these statements alone were not enough to move the bank-activist relationship toward a cooperative state (see Figure 3). Revised Proposition 4 As the direction of the issue set in the public opinion environment becomes less favorable, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a conflict state, and as that environment becomes more favorable, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a cooperative state. Limitations A fundamental challenge confronted in this study was to meet the imperatives imposed by the ecological and evolutionary lens, as well as the demands of the comparative case study approach. The former demanded that the phenomena of interest be examined over a timeframe adequate for observing change at the population level of analysis, and the latter demanded thick, rich description. In negotiating the constraints imposed by the resources available to a single researcher over a limited period of time, I could not always pursue the explorations of other events and turning points that may have enriched this study. For example, it may have been useful to apply multiple methods, or triangulation, including interviews with news or assignment editors to consider news routines to provide other perspectives for issue-set inertia. Furthermore, to establish a robust coding scheme that was adequately detailed to describe this set of issues and yet extensive enough to be applied longitudinally, the issues comprising the issue set had to be broadly defined. Issues defined within the issue set shifted in emphasis as events and topics changed. However, more consistencies than differences emerged over time, and it was on the basis of these consistencies that the decisions shaping the issue set were founded. The compromise between timeframe and the provision of the detail necessary to build comparative case research also manifested in the use of media coverage to describe the state of bank-activist relationships. The state of bank-activist relationships were necessarily constructed using artefacts of those relationships, specifically evidence collected from statements published in the public domain. An alternative way of describing the bank-activist relationship state that was not bound to media coverage would have been useful for providing further insights into the bank-activist relationship state.
Conclusions The public opinion environment at the organizational population level of analysis is resistant to change over time and characterized by inertia. This inertia was revealed only when the dimensions of the issue-set—stability, complexity, intensity, direction, and complexity of activist relationships—were identified and tracked over time. In other words, the degree of issue-set inertia is revealed by exploring the issue-set dimensions over time. When issues of concern to organizations and publics emerge in the issue set comprising the public opinion environment at the population level of analysis, the stage may be set for the relationships between organizations and their publics for some years to come. One strategic response to issue-set inertia for organizations is to differentiate an organization's activities and operations from its cohorts in the population, reframe the perceptions of their publics, and extend the foundations on which relationships with publics are built. Such a contention is ripe for further exploration in the issues management professional literature. To ensure that their issues of concern attract consistent rather than intermittent attention, activist publics can adopt strategies to link issues of concern to the organizational population rather than just one or two organizations and, more importantly, to apply strategies that do not depend for impact on the limited exposure given to activists by the mainstream media. The bank-activist relationships most likely to "fit" the public opinion environment as described by their preservation and reappearance over time were the relationships organized around multiple persistent issues. These activist publics engaged not only with the organizations in the focal population, Australia's major banks, but with other organizations in other populations. The existence of these activists and, therefore, their relationships with the banks was not limited to the negotiation of one issue with a few organizations but extended to multiple issues and many organizations in different populations. Even while the major banks were enjoying record profits in the third case study, from 1995 to 2001, the public opinion environment remained unfavorable, with the banks enduring heavy and extensive criticism in what became known colloquially in the mid-1990s as "bank-bashing." Banks responded to this increasingly unfavorable public opinion environment by refraining from being drawn into exchanges with activists, especially exchanges expressing conflict; they preferred instead to make more cooperative and neutral statements, intent on bringing public opinion back in support (Deegan et al., 2002). The outcomes of these three case studies call into question the value of advice that encourages organizations to escalate their use of neutral statements in response to issues of concern. The public opinion environment was consistently unfavorable as the flow of neutral statements from banks increased. The outcomes of this study contest the value of this strategy, suggesting that the banks' "neutral" comments at best had no impact and, at worst, incensed the activists to the point where they were more vocal that ever. If the major banks employed these strategies as a means of improving their image and encouraging more favorable media coverage, the outcomes of this study reveal nothing that would support such a contention. If anything, it might be inferred from the increasing number of conflict statements that the banks' "neutral" comments spurred the activists on to assert their positions more aggressively and were quoted the media more frequently. Without elaborating beyond the available evidence, the outcomes of these three case studies call into question the value of the advice of public relations practitioners that encourages organizations to deal with issues of concern and contention by seeking to downplay the issues and the activist public associated with those issues. The concept of the variable public opinion environment of an organizational population as a set of issues that can be dimensionalized according to their stability, complexity, intensity, and direction emerges from the organizational and public opinion literature. The dimensions proposed in both the original and refined EOAR model provide a robust lens that researchers can now apply and refine to detect and measure public opinion environment variation. Although the relationships between variations in the public opinion environment of an organizational population and the evolving organization-activist relationships, as anticipated by the propositions of the EOAR model, were not extensively supported, this study captures, describes, and measures important properties of an organizational population's public opinion environment. Therefore the ambition of this study, to enrich contemporary public relations theory, is achieved by conceptualizing and measuring variation in the public opinion environment of an organizational population, bringing this complex and multi-dimensional environment more sharply into focus for both scholars and practitioners. This study challenges traditional approaches to public relations theory building. Advanced within is a theoretical apparatus with which one of the most persistent but untested assumptions of public relations theory, continuous adaptation, can be investigated by focusing on the specific associations between variations in one important sector, the public opinion environment, and the evolving relationships that similarly constrained organizations have with their publics.
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Table 1 The Conflict Continuum – Concept Summary and Indicators Conflict State Cooperative State All efforts by organizations and their activist publics in the population focus on • maximizing their own separate gains on issues of mutual concern. • minimizing their losses within a "win-lose" or self-gain orientation. All efforts by organizations and their activist publics in the population focus on • reconciling their mutual interests. • cooperating to reach joint benefits. • resolving issues to their mutual satisfaction.
Indicators of a Conflict State
Indicators of a Cooperative State Public statements attributed to relationship participants by the news media • explicitly reject cooperation as desirable and necessary or omit any reference to cooperation. • describe the relationship as being in a state of conflict. • focus on conflict-seeking and the points of dissension on the issues of mutual concern. Public statements attributed to relationship participants by the news media • openly acknowledge cooperation as desirable and necessary. • suggest that cooperation is occurring and that consensus is evident. • focus on solution-seeking and the points of consensus on the issues of mutual concern .
Figure 1
The Evolutionary Model of Organization-Activist Relationships
The Public Opinion Environment The Issue Set Stability (issue turnover) Low High Complexity (number of issues) High Low Intensity (volume of media coverage) High Low Direction (favourability to focal organizations) Favorable Unfavorable Organization-Activist Relationships The Conflict Continuum Conflict State Cooperative State
Figure 2
Summary of Findings—Evolutionary Model of Organization-Activist Relationships The Public Opinion Environment The Issue Set Stability* (issue turnover) Low (more issue turnover) High (lower issue turnover) Complexity of Issues* (number of issues) High (more issues) Low (fewer issues) Complexity of Activist Relationships (number of activist relationships) High (more activist publics to negotiate) Low (fewer activist publics to negotiate) Intensity (change in volume of media coverage) Low to High (volume of issue coverage increases dramatically) High to low (volume of media coverage decreases dramatically) Direction (favourability to focal organizations) Unfavourable Favourable Organization-Activist Relationships The Conflict Continuum Conflict State Cooperative State Relationship-signaling statements More relationship-signaling statements
• More cooperative statements from organizations • More conflict statements from activists Fewer relationship-signaling statements
• More conflict statements from organizations • More cooperative statements from activists *Note that the complexity (number of issues) proposition was not supported and the stability proposition was largely unsupported. However, some weak associations were detected between variations in stability and complexity and variations in relationship-signalling statements.
Figure 3
The Revised Evolutionary Model of Organization-Activist Relationships The Issue Set Proposition 1 Complexity of activist relationships High Low As the number of activist publics organized by the issue set increases, organization-activist relationships move toward a conflict state. When the number of activist publics organized by the issue set decreases, organization-activist relationships move toward a cooperative state on the conflict continuum. Proposition 2 Concentration Variable Constant As the concentration-dispersion of the issue set becomes more variable, as described by the range of variation in the proportion of media coverage given to issues, organization-activist relationships move toward a conflict state. Proposition 3 Intensity Low to High High to Low As variations in issue-set intensity become more extreme in range, organization-activist relationships are more likely to move toward a conflict or cooperative state in anticipated ways. In other words, as issue-set intensity increases, organization-activist relationships move toward a conflict state, and as issue-set intensity decreases, organization-activist relationships move toward a cooperative state. Proposition 4 Direction Unfavorable Favorable As the direction of the issue set in the public opinion environment becomes less favourable, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a conflict state, and as that environment becomes more favourable, organization-activist relationships in the population move toward a cooperative state. Organization-Activist Relationships The Conflict Continuum Conflict State Cooperative State
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