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Reinforcement Model Exploring a Reinforcement Model of Perceived Media Influence on Self and Others
Mary Beth Oliver Hyeseung Yang Srividya Ramasubramanian Jinhee Kim Sangki Lee
Pennsylvania State University
Paper submitted to the Comm Theory and Methodology Division of the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication.
Correspondence concerning this manuscript should be sent to Mary Beth Oliver, College of Communications, 210 Carnegie Building, University Park, PA, 16801, Phone: (814) 863-5552; email: [log in to unmask]; FAX: (814) 863-8161.
AV Needs: Overhead Projector Exploring a Reinforcement Model of Perceived Media Influence on Self and Others
Abstract An experiment was conducted to explore the idea that when making estimates of media influence on self and others, individuals employ a heuristic of assuming reinforcement of existing attitudes. Support for the reinforcement model was obtained, and was further applied to perceptions of the effects of media violence on the self versus others. Results are discussed in terms of providing a framework for interpreting third-person perceptions. Exploring a Reinforcement Model of Perceived Media Influence on Self and Others
When making judgments about media influence on individuals' attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors, what types of variables do most people consider? If the typical person considered all of the variables that researchers have pointed to as important in moderating and mediating media influence, hundreds of variables would be considered, including historical contexts, viewing situations, and individual differences, among others. However, judgments of media influence, as with many judgments, likely fall prey to heuristic processing, with individuals employing simple "rules of thumb" to guide their estimates (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). In this regard, research on third-person perceptions suggests that one "rule of thumb" that people may employ focuses on the recipient of media influence: the self versus others. In general, a substantial and growing body of literature provides consistent evidence for the tendency of individuals to estimate that other people are more susceptible to harmful media influence than the self (see, for example, Davison, 1983; Perloff, 1993, 2002). Given that numerous studies have demonstrated that third-person perceptions are robust and consistent, what mechanisms might explain people's tendencies to distinguish between the self and others? To date, numerous variables have been identified, including variables relating to self-esteem, variables pertaining to estimates of media exposure, and variables pertaining to perceived social distance of others, among many others (for reviews, see Perloff, 1993, 1999, 2002). The purpose of the present research is to contribute to the literature on explanatory mechanisms by suggesting a model (or heuristic) that individuals may use when estimating media influence on the self and others. Namely, this paper explores the idea that people use a "reinforcement model" when making judgments, using their own attitudes and their perceptions of others' attitudes as baselines, and using these baselines to make estimates concerning the strength and magnitude of media influence that acts to reinforce existing attitudes. Self-Enhancement and Third-Person Perceptions In considering the multitude of possible explanations for third-person perceptions that have been explored by researchers, Perloff (2002) suggested that explanations focused on self-enhancement motivations have received the preponderance of support. Of course, judgments of differential media influence on the self versus others in the enhancement of self image can take many forms, including perceptions that others are less critical or literate media consumers, perceptions that others are simply more vulnerable or susceptible to media influence, and perceptions that others are more frequent consumers of media content that may cause harm, among others (Brosius & Engel, 1996; Eveland, Nathanson, Detenber, & McLeod, 1999). Consistent with all of these motivations related to self-enhancement, research that has explored perceived effects of a wide variety of "harmful" content (e.g., violence, pornography, misogynistic rap music) has reported a tendency for individuals to perceive that others are more influenced, and particularly when the "others" are socially distant from the self and/or when others are assumed to have greater exposure to the media content in question (Eveland et al., 1999; Gunther, 1995; Gunther & Hwa, 1996; Hoffner & Buchanan, 2002; Lo & Wei, 2002). In contrast, this same body of literature suggests that under some circumstances, individuals may perceive that they are more influenced than others (a first-person perception), though these estimates appear to be most common in situations in which media influence is thought to have beneficial outcomes (Brosius & Engel, 1996; Duck, Hogg, & Terry, 1999; Gunther & Mundy, 1993; Henriksen & Flora, 1999). In general, then, research concerning perceived media influence of content that is "harmful" or "beneficial" provides support for the general idea that individuals tend to perceive media influence on the self versus on others in ways that likely serve ego-enhancing ends. Viewers' Models of Media Influence In addition to suggesting that perceived media influence may reflect self-enhancement motivations, several researchers have suggested that people tend to employ short-cuts or heuristics in guiding their estimates. Namely, one underlying assumption that people appear to employ is the notion that media may have powerful or direct effects – but particularly on others' attitudes. For example, McLeod, Detenber, and Eveland (2001) employed a similar interpretation in their research concerning individuals' estimates of the effects of exposure to violent and/or misogynistic music. Although individuals' estimates of the influence of such music on the self depended on their assessment of their own level of "common sense," their estimates for others were predicted by the extent to which they believe that others were exposed to such content. These authors interpreted their findings as consistent with the fundamental attribution error and as suggestive of the idea that people perceive media influence on others in "magic bullet" terms: "With regard to media effects on others, people seem to use a very simple heuristic: Exposure equals influence" (p. 692). Individuals' tendencies to believe that media exposure has a strong impact on others' attitudes is a concept that has been explored extensively by Gunther and his colleagues (see, for example Gunther, 1998; Gunther & Chia, 2001; Gunther & Christen, 2002; Gunther, Christen, Liebhart, & Chia, 2001). Namely, these authors have argued that when estimating public opinion, individuals assume that the media are "persuasive" in affecting public opinion. Consequently, if individuals perceive the media as representing a given slant on an issue, the direction of this perceived slant should predict the position that the public is thought to hold, as the public is assumed to be more affected by media content than is the self. The Importance of Existing Attitudes and Perceptions of Media Reinforcement Whereas the notion that the media play a powerful, direct role in affecting others' attitudes is consistent with public concerns surrounding "harmful" media content (e.g., violent video games, television violence, sexuality explicit media), additional researchers have highlighted the importance of viewers' existing attitudes as moderators of estimated influence. For example, Cohen and Davis (1991) explored responses to negative political campaign advertisements among supporters and non-supporters of the candidate being attacked. In general, their results support the idea that people tend to perceive that media have little influence on the self relative to others when the message is opposed to their own position, but perceive a stronger influence of media on the self relative to others when the message is consistent. Similar results were reported by Driscoll and Salwen (1997) in their research concerning perceived effects of media messages regarding O.J. Simpson. Namely, third-person perceptions were smallest when the media message matched the respondents' pre-existing beliefs concerning Simpson's guilt or innocence. As these authors noted, "If there is a generalized tendency to perceive the news from a third-person effect perspective, …this tendency may be diminished, altered, or superseded by individuals' opinions about the messages" (p. 551). In general, these studies appear to imply that an additional schema or heuristic of media influence may be at work when individuals make estimates of media influence. Namely, studies that have examined existing attitudes suggest that individuals may assume that media serve to reinforce existing attitudes. This tendency appears to be particularly evident for issues on which media may be perceived to have possible bi-directional influence (i.e., leading to favorable or unfavorable attitudes on a given issue). However, in the case of "harmful" content (e.g., media violence), the reinforcement model may still be at work, as individuals may assume that others are more unfavorably situated (e.g., aggressive) in general to begin with, thereby making it more likely that the media will serve to reinforce their unfavorable dispositions. If people do employ a reinforcement schema in estimating media influence, what might this tendency imply for third-person perceptions (or differences in estimates of the effects of media on others versus the self)? This tendency would imply that when estimating media influence, people first make judgments concerning their own and others' "baseline" or existing attitudes. Then, if individuals perceive that their attitudes are shared by others, differences in estimated effects of media on the self versus others should be minimal, though the strength and magnitude of the estimated influence should vary as a function of perceived baseline attitudes. However, when individuals perceive that others hold different attitudes, estimated media influence on the self versus others should begin to diverge, with the largest differences occurring when individuals perceive that others generally have attitudes that are "opposite" from their own. In this latter situation, individuals should perceive that media exposure reinforces their own attitude in one direction (e.g., pro or con), whereas exposure reinforces others' attitudes in the opposite direction. Authors (2004) recently explored the notion of a "reinforcement model" in a survey that assessed individuals' perceptions of media influence on the issue of affirmative action in higher education. In their study, respondents first reported their own attitudes about affirmative action, their estimates of others' attitudes, and their perceptions of news coverage of the issue. Subsequently, respondents reported perceived influence of media coverage on their own and others' attitudes on scales ranging from 1 (The News Makes Me More AGAINST Affirmative Action) to 9 (The News Makes Me More IN FAVOR OF Affirmative Action), with a mid-point of 5 (The News Doesn't Affect My Attitudes Either Way). Their results revealed that although people generally perceived that media coverage was "neutral" in its treatment of affirmative action, media influence was thought to affect attitudes (for both the self and others) in the direction of existing attitudes. That is, influence was perceived to be in the "pro" direction for individuals who were initially favorable toward the issue, and in the "anti" direction for individuals who were initially unfavorable. Consequently, differences between estimates of media influence on the self versus others were minimized when individuals believed that other people shared their attitudes, and were maximized when they believed that others held opposing positions. Present Study and Hypotheses Although the notion of a reinforcement model in estimating media influence has received some empirical support, the exploration of this model is exploratory, at best. In addition, the use of correlational data presents a series of potential problems in both analysis and interpretation. For example, Authors (2004) reported that the respondents in their sample had a strong tendency to perceive that others shared their own attitudes toward affirmative action (a false consensus effect, see Gunther & Chia, 2001; Marks & Miller, 1987). Consequently, exploring situations in which respondents perceived that others held attitudes opposite to that of their own was tenuous. In addition, although these authors interpreted their data as supporting the idea that perceptions of existing attitudes predicted media influence, an equally plausible interpretation is that the strength and direction of estimated media influence predicted perceptions of existing attitudes. For example, individuals who estimated that media exposure caused more favorable attitudes may have then been more likely to believe that the public, at large, consequently possessed more favorable attitudes. Because the problems inherent in correlational designs make exploration of causal mechanisms difficult (if not, at times, impossible), the present research attempted to examine the reinforcement model of perceived media influence in an experimental context. Namely, rather than asking respondents to estimate others' attitudes on given issues, the present study manipulated others' attitudes by describing hypothetical persons as having favorable, unfavorable, or neutral attitudes. Based on the notion that people estimate influence of media on the basis of existing attitudes, the following hypothesis was examined: H1: Differences in perceived media influence on the self versus others will vary as a function of perceptions of others' existing attitudes. In addition to manipulating perceptions of others' attitudes, as in the Authors (2004) study, the present investigation measured respondents' own self-reported attitudes on given issues. Given that individuals' perceptions of media influence on the self are thought to vary as a function of their existing attitudes, an additional hypothesis was examined: H2: Differences in perceived media influence on the self versus others will be largest when self and other attitudes are most divergent and smallest when they are most similar. Whereas the previous two hypotheses were explored in the context of news issues for which both "pro" and "anti" attitudes were plausibly expected (e.g., affirmative action, attitudes toward the war in Iraq, animal rights), it is unclear if the reinforcement model could be applied to perceptions of media content that is understood to have decidedly harmful or unfavorable effects on viewers (i.e., media violence increasing aggression). Consequently, this study examined the following research question to explore whether the reinforcement model could be extended to a type of media content that has arguably generated the greatest research attention in the third-person literature: RQ1: Will differences in perceived influence of media violence on self versus others vary as a function of individuals' perceptions of their own and others' aggressive dispositions? Method Sample A convenience sample of 212 students at a large northeastern university participated in the study. Respondents were approached in public places on the university campus (e.g., library, student union, coffee shops) and were given the questionnaire to complete at that time. The median age of the sample was 21 years, with 101 males and 111 females agreeing to participate. Design and Materials A three-way within-subjects experimental design that manipulated the attitudes of a hypothetical viewer was employed to test Hypotheses 1 and 2. Within each of the three conditions, respondents were first presented with a description of media coverage of a news-related issue. Following the description of media coverage, respondents were then presented with a description of a hypothetical viewer who was characterized as being likely to possess favorable attitudes toward the issue described, unfavorable attitudes, or neutral attitudes. The order in which the news issues were presented was varied, and the issue / viewer attitude pairings were counterbalanced. The three issues employed in the description of media content included affirmative action policies in higher education, U.S. involvement in Iraq, and the use of animals in scientific research. These issues were selected on the basis of past research and on timeliness. Within each description, media coverage was described as presenting both "pro" and "anti" positions on the issue (see Gunther & Chia, 2001; Authors, 2004). For example, the description of media coverage of affirmative action read: Media Content: News Coverage of Affirmative Action in Higher Education This type of news content covers a balance of viewpoints on affirmative action in higher education. Some content presents arguments that affirmative action in higher education is a bad thing because it's unfair to White applicants and it's unnecessary. Other content presents arguments that affirmative action in higher education is a good thing because it increases diversity and it helps to remedy present and past discrimination.1
Following the description of media content was a description of a hypothetical viewer who was described as favorable, unfavorable, or neutral toward the issue. For example, the viewer associated with the description of affirmative action was described in one of the following ways: (Pro): Miller is a young adult who grew up in a household that was generally politically independent. However, since coming to college, Miller has become more active in left-wing politics and has strong opinions about a variety of social and political issues related to race and gender. Miller identifies with being called a "liberal."
(Anti): Miller is a young adult who grew up in a household that was generally politically independent. However, since coming to college, Miller has become more active in right-wing politics and has strong opinions about a variety of social and political issues related to race and gender. Miller identifies with being called a "conservative."
(Neutral): Miller is a young adult who grew up in a household that was generally politically neutral. Since coming to college, Miller has stayed abreast of political news, and makes it a point to listen to a variety of opinions about social and political issues related to race and gender. Miller doesn't identify with being called a "liberal" or a "conservative," but can understand arguments from both perspectives.
A three-way between-subjects design that manipulated the aggressive dispositions of a hypothetical viewer was employed to test the research question concerning perceived influence of media violence. Respondents were first presented with a description of violent media: Media Content: Crime/Action Drama. This type of media entertainment typically features some type of criminal behavior (e.g., murder, robbery) that places the cast of characters in a dangerous situation, often with the characters fighting for their lives. The entertainment often features a great deal of suspense and action, such as gun fights, car chases, and explosions.
Following this description was a description of a hypothetical viewer who was described as possessing a disposition that was consistent with the message (i.e., aggressive), was inconsistent (i.e., non-aggressive), or was "neutral" (i.e., neither aggressive nor non-aggressive). (Aggressive Viewer): Smith is a very high-strung individual who is often quick to anger. Smith often has a bad temper, and has had several occasions to get into fights with other people. While most of these fights have involved only exchanging threats, some of them have involved physical altercations.
(Non-aggressive Viewer): Smith is a very mild-mannered person. Smith is very understanding and peaceful, and goes to great lengths to avoid conflict with other people. The thought of fights and arguments is something that Smith finds disturbing and upsetting, preferring to talk things out rather than resort to violence.
(Neither Aggressive nor Non-aggressive Viewer): Smith is generally an even-tempered sort of person. Although Smith can sometimes get angry when other people are rude or assertive, Smith is generally able to keep this irritation in check. Although Smith generally avoids situations involving conflict, Smith occasionally gets into arguments, though these arguments never last long.
Measures The first page of the questionnaire booklet asked respondents to indicate their own attitudes about affirmative action in higher education, U.S. involvement in Iraq, and the use of animals in scientific research on scales ranging from -4 (Very Against) to 4 (Very In Favor Of), with a midpoint of 0 (Neither in Favor Of nor Against). This front page also asked respondents to indicate their level of aggressiveness on scales ranging from -4 (Not at All Aggressive) to 4 (Very Aggressive). The following pages of the questionnaire presented respondents with the descriptions of media content and the hypothetical viewers. Following each description, respondents were first asked to rate the viewer's attitude/disposition on the issue in question (e.g., affirmative action, aggression) on scales ranging from -4 (Very Against/Not at All) to 4 (Very In Favor Of/Very). These questions were used as a manipulation check for the description of the hypothetical viewers' attitudes/disposition. After rating perceptions of the hypothetical viewer, respondents were then asked to estimate how much they believed that the described media content would affect the hypothetical viewer, and then how much it would affect themselves. Both of these questions employed scales ranging from -4 (Would Make Them/Me More Against) to 4 (Would Make Them/Me More In Favor Of), with a midpoint of 0 (Would Have No Effect). In the case of media violence, these scales ranged from -4 (Would Make Them/Me Less Aggressive) to 4 (Would Make Them/Me More Aggressive). Results Recoding and Manipulation Check Before examining Hypotheses 1 and 2, a preliminary analysis was conducted on perceived media influence on self versus others as a function of story type (Affirmative Action, Iraq, Animal Rights). This analysis revealed a main effect of self-other and a main effect of story type, Self-Other: F(1, 210) = 18.75, ? = .92, ?p2 = .08, p < .001; Story Type: F(2, 209) = 9.09, ? = .92, ?p2 = .08, p < .001.2 However, the Self-Other X Story Type interaction was not significant, illustrating that perceptions of media influence on self versus others was not unique to any specific story, F(2, 209) = 1.41, ? = .99, ?p2 = .01, p = .25. Consequently, responses to each of the three scenarios (Affirmative Action, Iraq, Animal Rights) were first recoded to reflect responses according to the three hypothetical viewers' described attitudes (pro, anti, neutral), resulting in each attitude condition including all three news story topics. Subsequently, to examine the effectiveness of the manipulation of viewers' orientations, respondents' perceptions of viewers' attitudes were analyzed in a three-way repeated-measures analysis. As expected, viewers' attitudes were perceived as most favorable in the "pro" condition (M = 2.28, SE = .12), most unfavorable in the "anti" condition (M = -1.55, SE = .17), and as moderate in the neutral condition (M = 0.48, SE = .06), with each condition significantly different from the other, F(2, 210) = 151.85, ? = .41, ?p2 = .59, p < .001.3 In contrast, respondents' self-reported attitudes did not differ according to viewer-attitude conditions, with self-reported attitudes generally falling within the "neutral" range, F(2, 209) = 1.19, ? = .99, ?p2 = .01, p = .31 (other pro: M = -0.05, SE = .16; other anti: M = 0.18, SE = .16; other neutral: M = 0.19, SE = .16). Perceived Media Influence as a Function of Others' Attitudes Hypothesis 1 predicted that differences in perceived media influence on self and others would vary as a function of perceptions of others' initial attitudes. To explore this hypothesis, a 2 (media influence: self, other) x 3 (perceived others' attitudes: pro, neutral, anti) repeated measures analysis of variance was employed. This analysis revealed a main effect for self-other, F(1, 210) = 18.75, ? = .92, ?p2 = .08, p < .001, with perceived media influence on others reflecting an effect in the favorable direction (M = 0.24, SE = .06), and perceived media influence on the self as negligible (M = -0.08, SE = .07). A main effect was also obtained for others' attitudes, F(2, 209) = 29.21, ? = .78, ?p2 = .22, p < .001. This effect was obtained because when others' were described as "pro," media influence was thought to be in a favorable direction (M = 0.57, SE = .09), when others were described as "anti," media influence was thought to be in an unfavorable direction (M = -0.40, SE = .11), and when others were described as neutral, media influence was thought to be negligible (M = 0.06, SE = .01). However, these main effects should be interpreted in light of the hypothesized Self-Other X Others' Attitudes interaction that was also obtained, F(2, 209) = 47.03, ? = .69, ?p2 = .31, p < .001. As Figure 1 illustrates, perceptions of media influence on others varied according to the direction of others' attitudes toward the issue at hand, whereas perceived media influence on the self did not vary substantially as a function of others' attitudes. Because respondents generally did not perceive that they were greatly influenced by media coverage of the issues, this graph illustrates the clearest instances of third-person perceptions in the other-pro and the other-anti conditions. In these two conditions, media influence was perceived to be stronger on others than the self, but it is important to note that the nature of the third-person perception differed substantially. When others were perceived to be pro, the third-person perception illustrates perceptions of stronger media influence in a favorable direction on others than on the self, but when others were perceived to be anti, the third-person perception illustrates perceptions of stronger influence in an unfavorable direction on others than on the self. These results are consistent with the idea that individuals appear to assume a strength and direction of media influence on others that is consistent with or reinforcing of others' perceived initial attitudes. Perceived Media Influence as a Function of Self-Reported and Others' Attitudes Hypothesis 2 predicted that differences in perceived media influence on the self versus others would be largest when self and other attitudes were most divergent and smallest when they were most similar. To explore this hypothesis, mixed-model analyses of variance were conducted for each of the three other-attitude conditions (pro, neutral, anti). Each analysis treated perceived media influence on self versus others as a within-subjects variable, and self-reported attitudes as a continuous between-subjects variable. Consistent with Hypothesis 2, analyses for each of the three conditions revealed the expected Self-Other X Self-Reported Attitudes Interaction, other pro: F(1, 209) = 71.52, ? = .75, ?p2 = .26, p < .001; other neutral: F(1, 210) = 77.82, ? = .73, ?p2 = .27, p < .001: other anti, F(1, 209) = 29.42, ? = .88, ?p2 = .12, p < .001. To illustrate and explore the nature of these interactions, respondents' self-reported attitudes on each of the issues were categorized as anti (below a score of -1), neutral (between -1 and 1), or pro (above 1). Subsequently, a 2 (media influence on others, self) X 3 (self-reported attitudes) mixed-model analysis of variance was conducted for each condition.4 Figure 2 illustrates the three interactions and shows that differences between perceived effects on others versus the self tended to be smallest when the respondent and the described viewer shared similar attitudes. When the respondent and described viewer differed in their attitudes, differences in perceived media influence were not only large, but they also tended to reflect differences in direction of media influence. Perceived Effects of Media Violence The final analysis was conducted to explore whether or not the influence of self-reported and perceptions of others' orientations on perceived media influence could be extended to an issue for which there is clearly undesirable direction of media influence. Namely, a mixed-model analysis of variance was conducted to examine the perceived influence of media violence, with Self-Other serving as a within-subjects factor, and others' dispositions (aggressive, passive, neutral) and self-reported orientations serving as between-subjects factors.5 This analysis revealed a main effect of self-other, with respondents reporting that media violence results in greater levels of aggression on others (M = 0.84, SE = .09) than on the self (M = 0.26, SE = .06), F(1, 206) = 41.12, ? = .83, ?p2 = .17, p < .001. A main effect was also revealed for others' dispositions, with respondents perceiving media violence to result in greater levels of violence in the aggressive condition (M = 0.92; SE = .11) and the neutral condition (M = 0.72; SE = .11), but not in the passive condition (M = 0.00; SE = .11), F(2, 206) = 19.16, ?p2 = .16, p < .001. However, this main effect should be interpreted in light of an Other-Self X Others' Disposition interaction that was also obtained, F(2, 206) = 47.77, ? = .68, ?p2 = .32, p < .001. Figure 3 illustrates this interaction, and shows that when others were perceived as aggressive or neutral, respondents perceived that media violence would result in greater levels of violence on others than on the self. However, when others were perceived as passive, respondents perceived that media violence would result in lower levels of aggression among others, and higher levels for the self. In other words, this analysis revealed traditional third-person perceptions for media violence only when others were perceived as neutral or aggressive.6 Discussion The present study offers support for the idea that when making judgments about media influence on the self and on others, individuals tend to perceive that media serve to reinforce existing attitudes or dispositions. This reinforcement model suggests, then, that third-person perceptions may reflect, at least in part, individuals' differential judgments of their own versus others' initial attitudes, and an assumption that media influence does not necessarily change attitudes, but rather strengthens dispositions that are in place initially (i.e., a baseline). Consequently, when individuals perceive that others share similar attitudes or dispositions, third-person perceptions should be minimized. It is important to recognize that although this reinforcement model provides a framework for interpreting third-person perceptions, this model is not inconsistent with existing interpretations of the third-person phenomenon, but rather provides a schema for examining and predicting perceptions of media influence. For example, explanations of third-person perceptions focusing on self-enhancement motivations can be understood as consistent with perceptions of media reinforcement. In terms of estimates of initial (or baseline) attitudes for the self and others, research on self-enhancement biases would generally suggest that individuals would be likely to perceive their own attitudes/dispositions as favorable or "correct" (Fiske & Taylor, 1984). Presumably, too, the more strongly an individual endorses a given attitude, the more favorably it is perceived. Consequently, in terms of media influence, changes in attitudes resulting from media exposure should be considered "beneficial" insofar as these changes result in movement toward the "correct" attitude (the one that is endorsed), and "harmful" insofar as these changes result in movement toward the "incorrect" attitude. Although this motivational explanation is consistent with the data obtained in this study, there are obviously numerous additional mechanisms that likely play a role in perceptions of media reinforcement. For example, research on biased processing of persuasive messages suggests that individuals with strongly held attitudes tend to evaluate more favorably arguments that are consistent with existing attitudes, to assimilate arguments that are ambiguous, and to counter argue or discount arguments that are inconsistent. Consequently, exposure to the same message featuring arguments on both sides of an issue should result in greater polarization of initial attitudes (Eagly & Chaiken, 1993; Lord, Ross, & Lepper, 1979; Miller, McHoskey, Bane, & Dowd, 1993; Munro et al., 2002). In the case of the present study, these biases in processing may not necessarily be recognized by respondents as biases per se. Nevertheless, individuals may have at least an intuitive understanding of individuals' tendencies in processing confirming and disconfirming messages, thereby affecting their perceptions of how the self and others are likely affected by exposure to media content. Whereas the previous discussion of possible mechanisms explaining media reinforcement seems most relevant for controversial issues on which people likely hold a diversity of opinion (both pro and con), similar reasoning can be applied to messages for which only one position is advocated or one direction of effect is expected or assumed. For example, in the case of perceptions of the influence of media violence or of sexually explicit materials, the preponderance of research has either assumed harmful effects, has employed pretests to determine that individuals actually perceive harmful effects, or has asked about harmful effects specifically (e.g., Eveland & McLeod, 1999; Hoffner & Buchanan, 2002; Hoffner et al., 2001; Lo & Wei, 2002; McLeod, Eveland, & Nathanson, 1997). In the case of such content, then, perceived reinforcement would be expected to occur primarily in one direction (e.g., violent dispositions associated with increased estimates of the influence of media violence). However, attitudes or dispositions contrary to the portrayed or advocated position (e.g., passive dispositions) may be associated with assumed counter arguing that could result either in little or no influence of media or in some movement in the opposite direction to that portrayed. Nevertheless, reinforcement of dispositions that are contrary to the position of a unidirectional message may not be as strong as reinforcement when the media content contains messages that are both consistent and inconsistent with initial attitudes. The application of the reinforcement model presented here to existing third-person research suggests that it may provide a useful heuristic in organizing a diversity of findings. For example, some studies have reported larger third-person perceptions of media violence among female than male respondents, and higher estimates of the influence of media violence on the aggression of male than of female viewers (e.g., Hoffner et al., 2001; Scharrer, 2002). In these instances, given generally higher levels of aggression among males than among females, the reinforcement model would suggest that these gender differences may reflect differential perceptions of baseline attitudes/dispositions, resulting in differential levels of expected media reinforcement. Similarly, research that has examined variants of the social distance corollary (Cohen, Mutz, Price, & Gunther, 1988; Eveland et al., 1999; Gibbon & Durkin, 1995; Meirick, 2004) could be explained by the idea that individuals tend to perceive similar others as holding comparable attitudes, with media thereby reinforcing shared attitudes to the same degree. Although this proposed model is admittedly exploratory, the implications that it has in terms of both perceptions of public opinion and of expected media influence are interesting to consider. For example, if individuals assume that media reinforce existing attitudes, then assessment of perceived media influence may serve as an indirect measure of perceived public opinion. For example, if individuals assume that news consumption is making people "more liberal," the reinforcement model would suggest that these same individuals may likely perceive that the public is more liberal to begin with. Similarly, if individuals perceive that the public holds attitudes that are contrary to their own beliefs or opinions, these same individuals may assume or fear that exposure to media will serve to reinforce others' attitudes, thereby exacerbating perceptions of a hostile media (Vallone, Ross, & Lepper, 1985). Certainly the application and implications of this model are far reaching and complex and would benefit from further exploration and explication. In addition, future research on this proposed model should attempt to account for limitations that are present in this study. For example, this study presented participants with a single hypothetical viewer to represent "other viewers." While this method was employed to allow for the manipulation of the others' attitudes/dispositions, self-reported estimates for a hypothetical viewer likely differ considerably from estimates for the public at large or for peers. Although, similar research employing correlational data has reported consistent findings to those obtained in this study (Authors, 2004), future research would clearly benefit from exploring a variety of ways to both measure and manipulate perceptions of public opinion. An additional limitation with the use of hypothetical viewers employed in this study concerns potential demand characteristics. That is, individuals were asked to estimate perceived media influence immediately after reading a description of the hypothetical viewers' attitudes related to the media content. Consequently, correlations between perceived attitudes and perceived media influence may have reflected only attempts to appear consistent. Although the notion of reinforcement seems to imply perceived consistency, future research would benefit from systematic steps to reduce any effects of demand characteristics on respondents' reported judgments. Finally, of course, this study employed college students as participants, which always serves to limit the generalizability of findings. Although there are no a prior reasons to suspect that the pattern of results observed here are unique to college students, future research would undoubtedly benefit from the use of a more diverse sample. Indeed, a greater diversity of respondents would provide the added opportunity of exploring how individuals from varying backgrounds perceive others' attitudes as similar or dissimilar from their own, thereby optimizing the possibility of finding variance in perceptions in both the strength and direction of perceived media influence. This paper began with a question concerning the variables that individuals likely consider when estimating media influence. The reinforcement model presented here suggests that one important variable considered may be baseline attitudes or dispositions, with media exposure assumed to strengthen or solidify existing attitudes. Insofar as people are thought to employ this heuristic to estimate both effects of media on the self and on others, the present study suggests that existing research on third-person perceptions may say as much about individuals' perceptions of others and their attitudes as it does about media influence.
References
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The main effect for self-other occurred because participants estimated that others would be affected in a slighted favorable direction (M = 0.24, SE = 0.06), whereas the effects on the self would be negligible (M = -0.08, SE = 0.07). This and all additional repeated measures analyses reported here employed a multivariate approach using Wilks' criterion 3 This and all pairwise comparisons reported here employed Holm's sequential bonferroni post hoc procedures. 4 These analyses also revealed the expected Self-Other X Self-Reported Attitudes interactions reported previously: other pro: F(2, 208) = 30.56, ? = .77, ?p2 = .23, p < .001; other neutral: F(2, 209) = 37.45, ? = .74, ?p2 = .26, p < .001: other anti, F(2, 208) = 11.22, ? = .90, ?p2 = .10, p < .001. 5 The manipulation check for the descriptions of the hypothetical viewer revealed that the aggressive viewer was rated as highest in aggression (M = 3.08, SD = 0.84), the non-aggressive viewer as lowest in aggression (M = -2.94, SD = 1.26), and the neutral viewer as in between (M = 0.27, SD = 1.44), F(2, 209) = 438.98, ?p2 = .81, p < .001 6 It is curious why third-person perceptions would be observed in the other-neutral condition. However, an examination of estimated levels of aggression revealed that participants perceived that the "neutral" hypothetical viewer was slightly more aggressive (M = 0.27, SD = 1.44) than was the self (M = -0.18, SD = 1.44), t(70) = 1.59, p = .12.
Figure 1. Perceived Media Influence on Others and Self as a function of Others' Attitudes
Figure 2. Perceived Media Influence on Others and Self as a function of Self-Reported and Others' Attitudes
Figure 3. Perceived Influence of Media Violence on Others versus Self as a function of Others' Dispositions
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